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It is still, in magnitude, approximately the same, and it is still here. This is because the hump was caused by procurement and promotion or lack of promotion has had no significant effect on it.

Our problem is that over a long period of time we will get very few vacancies in the grade of captain and the grade of commander, since the 30-year point and the 26-year point is considerably in advance of those officers who will go in any significant numbers.

For example, as this blue line indicates, if we had anything like a normal distribution we would be getting about 400 vacancies in the grade of captain each year, to provide promotion opportunity for approximately 550 commanders. But as you can see, again by reference to the bargraphs representing people, we will get about 60 vacancies this year through the retirement of those officers commissioned in 1929, while we have over 2,000 Regulars all commissioned in 1942 who will have between 7 and 9 years in grade of commander in the next 3 years, for which we can provide promotion opportunity only by this small number of vacancies that you see here from the normal retirements of those officers commissioned before the war.

Looking at the problem in pictorial display, we show here the hump as ranks of marching men, all marching toward the ultimate goal of every good naval officer, that of flag officer, shown by the officer in black to the far right. These officers are in rank by the year in which they were first commissioned.

For example, this long rank of red officers represents those officers who were commissioned in 1942, and who are presently commanders. Each figure represents about 100 Regulars.

We show here the promotion point between commander and captain and between lieutenant commander and commander as a black wall. Our problem is simply that the door in this wall, is too narrow to allow anything but a trickle of these commanders to get through to captain, and the lieutenant commanders to get through to commander. But the openings in the wall are merely a reflection or a result of the exits provided for in the law. Those exits were, first, promotion to flag rank. The opportunity for promotion to flag rank is represented by the one officer in black in relation to all the rest.

Secondly, there was an exit provided at the expiration of 30 years of service for those captains who were not promoted to flag rank. There was also an exit provided at the expiration of 26 years of service for those officers who are commanders, shown here in red, who have failed of selection when their contemporaries were promoted to captain.

Unless we can increase the flow at these exits-and you will notice that this exit is still some 6 years in advance of the number of commanders twice failed in any significant number, or insert additional exits, we face the possibility of a great many of our lieutenant commanders seeking the exit or being forced out of the exit of 20-year

retirement.

The legislation that we request will widen the breach in the wall. (The charts referred to are as follows:)

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