THE SOVIET THREAT

According to Soviet leaders, Soviet military policies are designed to: ensure the security and integrity of the Soviet Union and its East European allies and to perpetuate the exclusive position of the communist parties therein; reduce Western and Chinese influence, and expand Soviet power and influence in the world. To achieve these ends, the Soviet Union maintains a sizable and increasingly capable military force.

In the near term, Soviet leaders are likely to continue their present policy of "peaceful coexistence" or "detente" which in their view has reduced the likelihood of war and US interventions against Soviet interests. Detente, in their view, has restrained some Western military programs, and increased access to Western technology and agricultural products. They can be expected to maintain leadership in Eastern Europe and to seek to restore Soviet preeminence to the world communist movement. Soviet policies and actions to weaken and eventually dissolve NATO, and to increase Soviet capability to influence political, economic, and military decisions throughout Europe are also likely to continue. They are also likely to continue to seek a major role in the Third World, reassert their leadership of world revolutionary movements, attempt to neutralize Chinese influence, and seek greater access to facilities abroad and to areas producing raw materials.

The Soviets have never viewed detente as prohibiting support of armed conflict. To the contrary, Soviet leaders have clearly informed the West that they intend to continue support of "wars of national liberation."

Strategic Offensive Forces

INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES
SS-9 and SS-18

The program to convert the SS-9 to the SS-18 modern large ballistic missile (MLBM) is continuing at a rapid pace. For the fifth straight year, the number of conversions has increased. Currently, there are nearly 200 operational SS-18 silos.

SS-11 and SS-17

Nearly 100 SS-17s are now operational in converted SS-11 silos. Conversion continues on other SS-11 silos at a slow pace. It is believed that most of the SS-17s have a MIRVd capability.

SS-11 and SS-19

There are nearly 300 operational SS-19 silos containing a mix of SS-19 and SS-11 ICBMs. The silos containing the SS-11 missiles probably will be retrofitted to accommodate the SS-19.

SS-13 and the Silo-Based SS-16

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to the status of the silo-based version of the SS-16. There is little doubt that the missile was developed in part as a replacement for the silo-based SS-13 missiles.

Land-Mobile SS-16 and SS-20

The Soviets have developed a land-mobile version of the SS-16, but apparently have opted to forgo deployment at this time. They nonetheless probably will continue mobile ICBM development, primarily to further their technology.

Deployment of the SS-20, an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) derivative of the SS-16, has been underway for the last year. There are somewhat less than 100 operational SS-20 launchers deployed in the Western USSR and the Soviet Far East.

SUBMARINE-LAUNCHED BALLISTIC

MISSILES

The Soviets continue to place a high priority on the development of their SLBM force. They currently have 950 launchers in operational status. Although only a relatively small portion of this force is maintained on operational patrol, with their longrange missiles, they can strike the United States while still in Soviet ports. There are launchers on older diesel GOLF and HOTEL units which are not accountable under the SALT Interim Agreement and are probably assigned a peripheral mission.

Over 800 aircraft assigned to Soviet Long Range Aviation (LRA) consist of long- and intermediaterange bombers, air-to-surface missile (ASM) carriers and aircraft. The long-range strike force includes turboprop Tu-95/BEAR, subsonic turbojet

BEAR

M-4/BISON, and variable-geometry-wing BACKFIRE aircraft. LRA posseses over 450 Tu-16/ BADGER and Tu-22/BLINDER intermediate-range bombers. In addition, the supporting force consists

BISON

The primary air threats to the United States are the BEAR and the BISON. More than half of these aircraft are equipped with the AS-3/KANGAROO; the rest are conventional bombers. BISON are capable of delivering free-fall bombs.

BACKFIRE, the only LRA aircraft in production, can carry free-fall bombs internally or mount two ASMS on its wings. The BACKFIRE has a primary mission of attack against Western Europe, including the shipping approach to Europe. A large number of BACKFIRE bombers have refueling probes, further enhancing their intercontinental capability.

BLINDER

of BADGER, BLINDER and BEAR aircraft configured for reconnaissance; a large number of BADGER aircraft configured for electronic countermeasures and electronic intelligence; and BADGER

BACKFIRE

Since 1974, the Soviets have alluded to the development of a new long-range swing-wing bomber which could be refueled in flight, achieve supersonic dash speeds, and carry internal and external munitions. Even if a prototype should be