At the master's level, science, mathematics, and engineering degrees have been consistently increasing from a low point of 15,000 in 1954 to 28,000 in 1962. The increases in mathematics and engineering have been particularly large. Doctorates in these fields are also growing sharply. From a level of 4,200 in in 1950, the total has risen to 7,500 in 1962. Table 10 provides year-to-year trends for all three levels of degrees since 1950.

TABLE 10.-Degrees awarded in natural and social sciences, mathematics, and engineering, 1950-62

Requirements for scientists and engineers

Estimates of future requirements for scientists and engineers depend upon the assumptions built into the estimating process. If one anticipates a continuing growth in the Government's scientific research and development expenditures for space exploration, medical research, defense, agriculture, oceanography, and high-energy physics, to cite a few important programs, requirements for scientists and engineers will necessarily be far greater than if one forecasts that these programs will decline. Similarly, if one assumes that a growing proportion of our youth will choose to go to college, thus continuing a well-established trend, the requirements for science faculties will grow.

A projection of requirements for scientists and engineers for the period 1963-70 is presented in table 11. This projection represents an extrapolation of recent trends to 1970. It should not be interpreted as a firm forecast of the number of scientists and engineers who will be employed in 1970; rather it represents a number who may be required if the growth trends since 1955 continue over this decade. Whether the trend will continue, of course, depends upon such variables as the volume of research and development, economic growth, college enrollments, level of defense expenditures, and others.

TABLE 11.-Scientists and engineers, 1963, and projection to 1970

The indicated trend, with these qualifications in mind, is an increase in employment of engineers of 50 percent, natural scientists 51 percent, and social scientists 35 percent.

Shortage of scientists and engineers

If growth of the science and engineering occupations at the indicated rates is to be achieved, severe strains will be placed upon our institutions of higher education, which face the task of training for replacements due to deaths and retire

ments as well as for additional needs. At the same time, higher standards of qualification are being sought, and rapid technological advance tends to make training of the past obsolete. Indications are that engineers and scientists with doctoral degree training especially will be in relatively tight supply.

The present situation appears to be one of limited supply in relation to demand in specialized fields. Some large industrial employers with favorable employment conditions and challenging opportunities report no difficulties in recruiting as many new staff as desired. On the other hand, the general recruiting trends on the college campuses show larger numbers of engineers sought in the face of smaller graduating classes. Beginning salaries offered to technical graduates advance year by year at a rate approximating 5 percent. Many employers report an inability to recruit as many new graduates as desired.

Disciplines showing the sharpest recent growth include mathematics, physics, and electrical and mechanical engineering. The science applications important to medicine-such as biochemistry and biophysics-are growing fields. Space applications of science and engineering have been particularly important as a result of the Government program. Smaller fast-growing fields include oceanog

raphy and high energy physics.

Selectivity of demand is indicated in the problem of the older engineers who sometimes find difficulty in readjustment to new job situations arising from technological change. Older professional training is frequently obsolete, and the scientist or engineer who does not keep abreast of new developments finds himself in a deteriorating labor market situation. Emphasis is now placed upon recency of training, particularly at advanced degree levels.

MANPOWER AT COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES

Turning from the general situation to an important subarea of the manpower picture, I should now like to discuss some problems of maintaining the supply of scientists and engineers through education and training and in utilizing scientists and engineers at colleges and universities. These institutions must contribute in a major way if we, as a nation, are to achieve our goals in science and technology. They educate and train scientists and engineers and some technicians. They train teachers of science for all educational levels. They are the principal centers of fundamental research which produces new knowledge. And they provide for certain highly specialized research needs by managing research laboratories and institutes.

Since 1945, a good many of our colleges and universities have undergone a radical transformation and have altered the balance of their traditional functions of generating knowledge (research) and transmitting knowledge (education). Colleges and universities will undoubtedly continue to contribute to the national research effort in important and increasingly significant ways. During the next few years in particular, however, they will be under even greater pressure than they were in the past decade to provide education for the young. This latter pressure is a result both of the public's ever-increasing desire for higher education and of a marked increase in the college-age population in the 1960's resulting from the post-World War "baby boom." Therefore, how the colleges and universities utilize their technical manpower not only affects the successful fulfillment of present commitments, but critically affects the long-term supply and quality of scientists and engineers.

Trends in Federal research and development expenditures

The changing balance between research and education stems directly from the rapid growth of Federal research and development programs and funds. In the past 10 years Federal funds for basic and applied research and development at colleges and universities proper1 have increased at an average annual rate of about 25 percent, from approximately $100 million in 1953 to $171 million in 1956 to about $900 million in 1963. Basic research funds grew at a similar rate and in 1963 were approximately $500 million. These Federal programs at colleges and universities proper are in large measure conducted under a system of project research. College and university scientists most usually work on specific projects which they conceive and design; their ideas are presented in proposals, which are reviewed by advisory panels composed mostly of university

1 The phrase "colleges and universities proper" excludes university-managed Federal contract research centers such as the Argonne National Laboratory, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, etc.

scientists. Generally, Federal agencies rely heavily on the recommendations of their advisory panels in determining which proposals are most meritorious and therefore deserve support. Government and university administrators negotiate details of administration and financing of those projects which, after review, are judged to be supportable. This system of Government-supported project research has been one of the principal reasons for the present leadership of American science and science education.

There is also another system of research and development at colleges and universities which affects markedly the utilization of scientists and engineers. This is comprised of laboratories and research institutes which the Federal Government finances and which the universities manage under contract. Currently, approximately 20 percent of the research and development scientists and engineers at all colleges and universities are employed by 12 universities to work in 34 separate governmentally supported research laboratories and institutes. They operate apart from the universities regular departmental structures and they contribute in varying degrees to the main research and educational functions of the institutions that manage them.

Deployment of scientists and engineers

The rapid increase in R. & D. funds is associated with a significant increase in the number of scientists and engineers at colleges and universities performing research and development. In 1961, there were more than 175,000 scientists and engineers employed in all colleges and universities (including employed graduate students). This number included some individuals who only worked part time; allowing for this fact, one can say that 141,000 full-time equivalent scientists and engineers were so employed, of which 118,000 were at colleges and universities proper, 13,000 at agricultural experiment stations and schools, and 10,000 at Federal contract research centers. (The full-time equivalent number

is the hypothetical number of full-time persons who would contribute the same effort.) About 67 percent of the total full-time equivalents were faculty, 21 percent other professional personnel, and 12 percent graduate students. About 80,000 full-time equivalents among all these groups combined were in teaching and 50,000 in research and development. Of the 118,000 full-time equivalent scientists and engineers at colleges and universities proper, about 77,000 were in teaching and 32,000 in research and development. Table 12 summarizes relevant data.

TABLE 12.-Full-time equivalents of employed scientists and engineers in all colleges and universities, by organizational unit and function, Mar. 1, 1961

NOTE-Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. Percentages are based on the unrounded

figures.

It is estimated that there are now about 190,000 scientists and engineers, 155,000 full-time equivalents, employed at colleges and universities. Federal funds can be said to support approximately one-third of the total scientists and engineers and about three-fourths of the scientists and engineers performing research and development at these institutions. These numbers reflect the fact that the colleges and universities and the Federal Government have become partners. And, as the President's Science Advisory Committee stated in 1960, 98-961-64-pt. 87

the partnership "seems certain to grow in importance unless the American people decide to accept a second-rate standing in terms of power, of comfort, of knowledge." The interdependency of the Government and institutions of higher education, and the dependency of the national welfare on both these sectors, require a durable and flexible alliance between them.

Distribution of funds and technical personnel

Beyond the large and important size of Federal support, other considerations, such as the distribution of research and development funds and technical personnel and the pattern of support, are vital to understanding the changing scene at colleges and universities. Although scientists and engineers engaged in research and development in academic institutions are found in about 400 such institutions, many of the 4-year colleges have little or no formal research activity on their campuses; and junior colleges as a class account for an insignificant fraction of the total research effort in institutions of higher education. Of these 400 institutions, in 1961, 306 had graduate education programs in some phase of science and engineering; these institutions are the ones responsible for training all of our higher level degree recipients. Table 13 summarizes the type of scientific and engineering personnel and their functions at these 306 graduate level institutions. The 306 graduate institutions accounted, on a full-time equivalent basis, for 99 percent of all research and development scientists and engineers employed in institutions of higher education. Over 90 percent of the full-time equivalents of research and development scientists and engineers are at 100 universities, and this same general group of institutions produce about 95 percent of our Ph. D.'s in science and engineering. TABLE 13.-Full-time equivalent of scientists and engineers employed in colleges and universities granting graduate degrees in science and engineering, by function and type of personnel, Mar. 1, 1961

NOTE.-Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. Percentages are based on the unrounded

figures.

Similarly, about nine-tenths of the Federal research and development funds are expended by about 100 institutions, somewhat less of a concentration than in 1950 when 65 schools accounted for nine-tenths of these funds. It is essential to recognize that Federal research and development funds at colleges and universities involve to a major degree at least 10 Federal agencies and stem from a variety of needs and purposes. There is no single pattern of support nor guiding set of policies. Each agency, on the basis of its legislation and mission, supports academic research in its own way. However, no agency has as its mission the support and strengthening of academic institutions per se.

These factors-Federal research and development programs and their sponsorship by many agencies, each in fulfillment of its mission-have affected profoundly the utilization of scientists and engineers at colleges and universities.

While the greatest impact has been on those colleges and universities in which research and development funds are concentrated, all academic institutions have been affected to some extent by Federal programs.

Many institutions are also involved in Federal programs aimed at improving the quality of education in the sciences and other fields of study. Several agencies including the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the U.S. Office of Education support fellowship programs for graduate students. The foundation and the AEC support, institutes for the training of high school and college teachers. The Foundation also provides funds for a number of programs which involve students, faculty, and facilities such as undergraduate research participation, research participation for college teachers, visiting scientists activities, advanced science seminars, and science education developmental projects. Institutions granting nearly 90 percent of the baccalaureates in science are currently participating in these programs in one way or another.

Effects of research and development programs

Federal research and development funds are highly beneficial to those colleges and universities receiving them. Among the benefits are: enlarged and improved research facilities, funds to aid in paying faculty salaries, expanded opportunities for postdoctoral fellows, and research associates, and an overall favorable climate for advanced education. Not only are graduate students receiving more financial support than heretofore, but those who participate in a sponsored research project have the opportunity to work with modern research equipment and also to work closely with the well-trained teaching and research staff, enabling them to earn and learn at the same time. Perhaps the most direct effect of expanded research programs has been to change the nature of the academic scientist's job; many of those who were a few years ago primarily teachers are now primarily research workers. As a result, teaching loads at universities receiving large Federal research and development funds have in general decreased. In the 100 institutions which accounted for more than 90 percent of the research and development, for every hour of professional time spent on teaching of science and engineering there was more than 1 hour spent on research and development in these disciplines.

As enrollment has grown, the size of many undergraduate lecture classes has increased and personal contacts, particularly between senior university faculty and undergraduates, have diminished. Both the lighter faculty teaching loads and the diminished faculty-student contacts could eventually lower the quality of undergraduate instruction, since it is becoming a prevalent practice for junior staff and graduate students to do much of the undergraduate teaching formerly done by professors. The agencies involved in supporting research are all aware of this problem, and efforts are being made to insure against developments which would prove in any way permanently damaging to the quality of science education at the undergraduate level.

Maintaining staff quality is a continuing problem for almost all institutions of higher education. There is a shortage of qualified personnel, particularly in the sciences where attractive employment is avaliable outside academic institutions. Currently, there is a four-sided competitive struggle for the more highly competent scientists and engineers involving industry, Government, colleges, and universities proper, and the contract research centers which universities manage. While competition from industry and Government is not new, the situation is aggravated by competition from university contract research centers. Also, during a period of increasing enrollments, colleges and universities will experience expanded needs for scientists and engineers for teaching.

However, the severity of the manpower problem is not the same with all academic institutions. Small colleges have greater problems than large universities. Contrary to popular belief studies show that faculty quality at universities has not deteriorated in recent years; the situation at colleges and universities which have little or no Federal funds may, on the other hand, be less favorable relatively than it was, for example, in the years immediately preceding World War II. Liberal arts colleges which do not have Federal research programs have great difficulty in attracting capable scientists. Various programs are underway or contemplated to make sure that the quality of scientific and engineering faculty in the smaller institutions will not continue to decline. Trends in college degrees and educational attainment

The factors I have discussed thus far in themselves are sufficient to cause serious manpower problems at colleges and universities. The situation is made