doubly severe by the fact that enrollments and degrees awarded during the next decade are expected to be twice as great as during the last decade. This is true of all fields as well as those of sciences, mathematics, and engineering. These projections are based on long-term cultural trends, which, when expressed as a percentage of the population in a relevant age group, are quite stable.

Although projected numbers are inherently uncertain, because they refer to the future, the stability of the long-term trends provides some confidence in the prediction of the number of students to be expected during the next decade. In view of the general desire for more education plus the recent heightened interest in science, these estimates may, however, prove to be conservative. Nevertheless, they do provide guidelines for planning the growth of our educational capabilities.

During World War II there was a steep dropoff in college output, and immediately after there was a sharp rise. The GI came back again and graduated from college. There was a similar dip during World War I, and a small dip during the depression. But allowing for these effects of war and depression, it can be said that on the average, educational attainment at the baccalaureate level has increased, absolutely and as a percentage of the age group reaching age 22 (the age at which most students graduate from college).

At the present time, approximately 20 percent of our young people are graduating from college each year. Since the growth in baccalaureates has followed a simple curve for 50 years, there is as yet no reason to expect any radical changes from this trend unless something drastic happens to our society. Hence, by the year 2000, we will probably see not less than 40 percent of our 22-year olds graduating from college. The fraction of the relevant age group, receiving degrees at the doctoral level is of course very much smaller. It was about 0.02 percent at the start of the century, and reached a tenth of a percent in 1930. The average age for obtaining doctorates is about 30 years, and about half of a percent of all 30-year-olds are currently earning this degree. There is general agreement that this percentage must be increased if the scientific and technological challenges and opportunities of the future are to be met adequately. Conclusion

In summary, all institutions of higher education and, in particular, liberal arts colleges, are now facing serious manpower problems. These are caused by competition from industry, Government, and university contract research centers, and to some significant extent by the expansion of research activities which have diverted talent from teaching to research. The situation is further aggravated in that all these factors are operating during a period of increasing enrollments.

GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS FOR IMPROVING THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER SITUATION

The broad responsibility of the Federal Government

We live in a representative democracy in an age of science. If we accept the principle that a democratic government should perform those common activities for the general benefit which cannot be adequately carried out by citizens in their individual capacities, the framework in which the Federal Government contributes to the support of science education and training programs is clear.

In the first place, the Federal Government is by far the largest "consumer" of scientific and technical manpower. More than 120,000 scientists and engineers are directly employed as Federal civilian employees in laboratories, departments, and field installations. In these positions, they perform basic research, carry on development activities, and administer research grant and contract programs carried on in private industry, universities, etc. An even larger number-probably more than 300,000 of scientists and engineers are working on Federal Government-financed programs in private industry, colleges and universities, and other levels of government. Because scientists and engineers are required in these numbers for the operation of its own programs, it is incumbent upon the Federal Government to display a strong interest in their education and training. As shortages develop and recruitment becomes more difficult, the Government must increase its efforts to provide adequate support of science and engineering education so as to avoid disruption of its own programs.

Furthermore, the accepted national goal of sustained and vigorous economic growth inevitably involves programs designed to increase our scientific and

technological manpower resources. Full employment and a rising standard of living for a growing population require a prosperous and growing economy. Economic growth in turn depends largely upon technological progress and innovation, which develop to a considerable extent from the research findings of scientists and engineers. In this area of vital national concern, when it appears that well-qualified scientists and engineers are not being produced in sufficient numbers to exploit scientific opportunities and to spark technological growth, Government assistance to produce the desired result of augmenting the supply is obviously called for. This is true in the same sense that other measures to advance the general welfare are the proper concern of the Federal Government.

Finally, some responsibility attaches to the Federal Government to assure that a minimum level of scientific literacy is attained by the general population. In an era when public policy becomes intertwined with scientific issues, an electorate literate in science is essential to the effective operation of a democratic society. Although the achievement of minimum educational standards is traditionally the responsibility of local authorities in this country, the creation of a national aspiration for higher educational standards must become and remain an active Federal Government goal and endeavor. It goes without saying that Government programs in this area must be persuasive rather than authoritarian. Under these forms of government in which the role of the individual citizen is to serve the state, arbitrary actions can and frequently do direct the individual into career choices considered advantageous to the nation. In a democracy, however, the element of compulsion is normally absent short of a mobilization situation. The individual is given the freedom of choice to select in accordance with his own sense of values. The role of Government is confined to encouragement along desired lines, to providing incentives, and to pointing out the alternatives. Freedom of choice remains the prerogative of the individual.

There are at present a number of federally supported science education programs going forward, all designed to carry out the Federal Government's responsibilities in this domain. As in many other complex situations, it is difficult to find a set of categories into which the programs now being carried out can all be appropriately placed. In very general terms, however, the Federal Government's programs in support of science education may be said to concern themselves with seven problem areas:

(1) The retraining and up-dating needs of senior scientists and scholars; (2) The motivation, recruitment, and support of adequate numbers of graduate students at the predoctoral level;

(3) The improvement of the science education of college undergraduates; (4) The special needs of able secondary school students;

(5) The retraining needs of teachers of science in colleges, secondary, and elementary schools;

(6) The needs of schools and colleges for educational facilities and equipment for teaching science;

(7) The need to improve instructional materials and curriculums.

Senior scientists and scholars

The rapid advances in science are compounding the difficulties encountered by even the experienced scientist in keeping up to date in his own and related fields. The Federal Government enters this picture in providing educational opportunities to senior scientists in the form of fellowships and specialized science seminars. Fellowships usually provide stipends and expenses to the scientists for an extended period, thus allowing him to pursue advanced training necessary for intellectual and professional growth. The science seminars are usually devoted to a specialized topic and are limited to a relatively short time period. In fiscal year 1963 the Federal Government expended approximately $16 million through the Public Health Service, the National Institutes of Health, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the National Science Foundation for these purposes. The Public Health Service and the National Institutes of Health provide postdoctoral fellowships for advanced study in the health and related sciences. The Atomic Energy Commission provides a limited number of postdoctoral fellowsships in fields associated with atomic energy. The National Science Foundation provides support broadly for postdoctoral study in mathematics, engineering, and the physical, life, and social sciences. Seminars in advanced science topics are also supported by the National Science Foundation.

Graduate students at the predoctoral level

Programs at the predoctoral graduate student level are designed to provide stipends and expenses to students while enrolled in graduate study programs leading to a doctorate in science or engineering. A significant number of graduate students in science and engineering are supported through fellowships and training grants sponsored by several Federal agencies. Such support may be termed nonduty stipends since services of the student are not a consideration for holding them. Such stipends may be awarded for study in specific areas, such as nuclear engineering or biological oceanography, or in the sciences generally. The latter are awarded in all areas of science and engineering without Government specification of a selected area. More than $200 million were obligated by the Federal Government for fellowships and training grants in fiscal year 1963. Among the Federal agencies administering such programs are the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Atomic Energy Commission, the U.S. Office of Education, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Many thousands of graduate students in science and engineering are also supported through Government programs which finance research projects at colleges and universities. These graduate assistants thus are employed in activities which relate directly to their graduate education. Undergraduate students

Programs at the undergraduate level are designed to further the development of undergraduates in science and to stimulate student interest in further study in science. Such programs give students an opportunity to become acquainted with research techniques and operations beyond the level customarily known to undergraduates. Students frequently act as junior colleagues on research projects conducted by senior scientific investigators and are encouraged to develop capability necessary for independent research. Approximately $8 million were obligated for these programs in 1963. Agencies providing such support include the National Science Foundation, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the National Institutes of Health.

Secondary school students

Unique courses of study or research participation experiences not ordinarily available in regular secondary school courses are supported by Federal agencies for high ability science oriented students. These programs usually are carried on in colleges, universities, and research centers with Federal support. Such activities are usually available during the summer months, although some operate during the school year as well. Approximately $4 million were obligated for these purposes by the National Science Foundation and the Atomic Energy Commission in 1963.

Teachers of science in colleges, secondary, and elementary schools

A major problem in our educational system is the shortage of adequately trained science and mathematics teachers. A sustained effort is being made, primarily by the National Science Foundation, to provide supplementary training for teachers at the college, elementary, and secondary school level in modern concepts of science and technology. In general, these programs provide concentrated courses of study in a given area of science for teachers now employed. Although the programs are principally attended by secondary school teachers where the greatest need is felt, a substantial number are designed for college faculty members and a few activities provide training for elementary school personnel. Most of the teachers attend institutes during the summer vacation months, although programs are also available for full-time study during the academic year or for part-time study during the school year. Such institutes are normally operated by colleges and universities with National Science Foundation support.

Smaller programs for the training and retraining of teachers include summer fellowships and science faculty fellowships which support the individual teacher in graduate study. Programs for research participation for high school and college teachers are designed to give teachers with stronger science backgrounds

an opportunity to improve their scientific skills by working with experienced investigators.

The principal agencies engaged in the support of these programs are the National Science Foundation, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the U.S. Office of Education. During fiscal year 1963 an estimated $65 million was spent by the Federal Government on all these programs.

Educational facilities and equipment

Adequate facilities and equipment are essential for science instruction and research. Government programs assist educational institutions through providing funds for laboratories and classrooms, and specialized installations such as field stations, computing centers, oceanographic research vessels, nuclear facilities, etc. Most of the support has been given for graduate level research facilities at the universities, which contributes greatly to education at this advanced level. Programs for providing instructional equipment at the undergraduate and secondary school level are considerably smaller. An estimated $123 million was provided by the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for the support of research facilities in 1963. Support for instructional equipment for the same year, estimated at approximately $50 million, was provided through the Office of Education, the National Science Foundation, and the Atomic Energy Commission.

Curriculum improvement

Courses and curriculums in science at the elementary, secondary, and higher educational levels have not kept pace with the rapid growth of scientific and technical knowledge. Increasing attention is now being paid by leading scientists to the development of improved instructional programs in science and mathematics for schools and colleges. Agencies providing support in this area include the National Science Foundation, the Public Health Service, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Approximately $15 million was obligated by these agencies for this work in 1963. These Federal programs for curriculum strengthening have created widespread interest in improving curriculums and methods in science education. Definitive materials are now in use by more than a million students of secondary school chemistry, physics, mathematics, and biology. This interest is not only evident at the secondary level but also at both elementary and college level.

Mr. HAWORTH. Mr. Chairman, this is Dr. Bowen Dees, who is Associate Director of the Foundation under whose jurisdiction our work of this sort comes, and Mr. Thomas Mills, who is directly in charge of our manpower statistics work, Dr. Koltun and Mr. Cain, who are also involved in this sort of thing.

Senator CLARK. Gentlemen, we are happy to have you with us. I want to thank you for the participation I am sure you made in the preparation of Dr. Haworth's presentation.

The first question I would like to ask you, which is a purely technical one, concerns the various statistics which appear in the first part of your statement, where you say that large numbers leave the engineering profession for other occupations, notably management. Then you state that professional work is confined at the level at which college graduates and others with equivalent experience and training are expected to perform.

I take it that in all of this discussion you are including among professional men, mainly among engineers, those who are working in engineering but do not have a baccalaureate degree or higher?

STATEMENT OF LELAND HAWORTH, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION; ACCOMPANIED BY BOWEN C. DEES, ACTING ASSISTANT DIRECTOR OF NASA FOR SCIENTIFIC PERSONNEL AND EDUCATION; ROBERT W. CAIN, PROGRAM DIRECTOR, SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER STUDIES; THOMAS J. MILLS, HEAD, SCIENTIFIC PERSONNEL AND EDUCATION STUDIES SECTION; AND WALTER L. KOLTUN, STAFF MEMBER, SERVICE RESOURCES PLANNING OFFICE

Mr. HAWORTH. I believe about 25 percent of the engineers that are listed as engineers here do not have the baccalaureate degree.

Senator CLARK. I notice that, but are they included in your discussion?

Mr. HAWORTH. Yes. Also, I believe that the comparable figure for scientists is a smaller percentage, 5 percent.

Senator CLARK. I think your view is that this percentage is likely to decrease as the educational requirements for the profession are upgraded.

Mr. HAWORTH. I believe it will, and I believe very much that it should. My own belief, if I may interject something, Senator, is that the need for improving quality in our scientists and engineers-and without any disrespect to the engineers, I think it is in some sense greater in the case of engineers-is more of a problem at least for the immediate future than the increase in numbers.

Senator CLARK. I get the general impression from your paper that the need is greater to upgrade the training and education of engineers than of other scientists. They seem to have the lowest level of master's degrees and Ph. D.'s; 25 percent of them do not even have a college degree.

Mr. HAWORTH. That is right.

Senator CLARK. And your thought is that the challenges they are presented with, the work they have to do, does require a substantial upgrading in their educational training.

Mr. HAWORTH. Yes; and I think it is in two substantive senses, not only the longer training, but in two particular respects. They need to increase the amount of things they do during their training period.

In a good many instances they need to have more basic science, that is to have a better knowledge of the underlying facts with which they have to deal. Engineering is becoming more and more dependent on knowledge of that sort in order to make advances.

Senator CLARK. This would include also, would it not, at least a rudimentary understanding of the humanities?

Mr. HAWORTH. That is right.

Senator CLARK. This is an area where there has been some criticism about the purely technical training of engineers.

Mr. HAWORTH. That is right. I think I could make the same statement with respect to science, too, that both scientists and engineers need more of that sort of thing.

Then the other area in which I think the training of engineers should be extended is that they should, during their training period, have some experience with research. So it is sort of at the beginning and the end that I think it needs to be expanded.