as 'the problem of filling up the vacuum created by the gradual disappearance of the Turkish Empire from Europe.' After the Turks had been driven from their European possessions by the Balkan States in 1912, there was some reason to hope that the vacuum might be filled in the only way compatible with justice-the division of the Balkan lands among the Balkan peoples. There was, however, an underlying difficulty in the way of the fulfilment of this programme, which some who were behind the scenes had always feared would prove fatal to its realisation. The liquidation of Austria-Hungary had not yet taken place. While the larger share of the newly liberated territories would have fallen to Bulgaria in virtue of the principle of nationality, her neighbours, Serbia and Rumania, saw themselves deprived of the hope of realising their aspirations in other directions. They consequently sought compensation in Bulgarian territory, while Greece joined them with the object of pushing her frontier northwards in Macedonia.

Justice must prevail in the work of reconstruction in the Balkans. The principal obstacle to a sound and just arrangement will probably be found in the existence of certain preliminary compacts which have been made under the stress of circumstances and in the pressure which will be brought to bear on the future Congress for the satisfaction of vindictive and predatory aims. The preliminary compacts cannot be discussed at present; we must only hope that in some respects they will be found capable of modification. With regard to the other difficulty, we must trust to the firmness and statesmanship of our representatives and to the chivalrous sense of justice which will inspire the diplomacy of the Allies. Before we attempt to rebuild the temple of peace,' said the present Prime Minister at the Guildhall last January, we must see that the foundations are solid. . . . Henceforth, when the time for rebuilding comes, it must be on the rock of vindicated justice.' There can be no other basis for a permanent settlement in the Balkans.

...

Art. 6.-WORLD CONGESTION AND THE REAL ARMAGEDDON.

1. Studies in Statistics. By G. B. Longstaff. Stanford, 1891.

2. The Elements of Vital Statistics. By A. Newsholme. 3rd ed. Sonnenschein, 1899.

3. Dictionary of Statistics. By M. G. Mulhall. Routledge, 1892.

4. The New Dictionary of Statistics. By A. D. Webb. Routledge, 1911.

5. The Antiquity of Man. By A. Keith. Norgate, 1915.

Williams &

It is likely that we who live in the first quarter of the twentieth century may deem that these, in which our own lot is cast, are sufficiently strenuous and stirring times. Nevertheless, if we can but free our eyes of prejudice and look with a clear gaze on the future, we are obliged to perceive that the moment of extreme stress has by no means fallen upon humanity even now; that it has yet to come, and that it threatens the world in a not very remote future. I realise that this is prophecy of no smooth or popular kind. It is not thus that many people envisage the possibilities of the days when the great European war shall be a memory, and we shall have bequeathed, as we fondly hope, peace upon earth to our posterity for many generations. For a generation or two, it is true, the peace of exhaustion will perhaps be the portion of most of the nations engaged, but it is not the least use to close our eyes to the grim prospect that lies still further ahead.

In that admirable handy-book of reference Whitaker's Almanack, tucked away in the very smallest print at the bottom of a page, as though it were a matter of extremely little moment, is the laconic statement, 'It has been estimated that the Earth can maintain a population of 6,000,000,000, a total which will be reached about A.D. 2100 at the present rate of increase.' Of course no one who has the very slightest acquaintance with statistics can fail to be aware that their study is peculiarly beset with pitfalls. The editor of Whitaker does not give us his authority for the above conclusion, but it is an estimate which is in the main endorsed by a number of

census and rate-of-increase figures drawn from different sources. Moreover, if it be only approximately correct, it would still seem to point to a situation in the near future such as Man has never been faced with in all the ages of his history.

The chief difficulty in arriving at any trustworthy statistics consists in the fact that for the Mongolian family, comprising a very large section of the human race, no really trustworthy figures touching the rate of increase are available. We can conjecture the rate from that of other nations, chiefly of the Caucasian family, for which the figures are before us, from their observed expansion, and from such accounts of their progress as can be gathered from themselves and from foreigners who have lived among them. Mr Longstaff, in his 'Studies in Statistics,' deals closely with the population of Western Europe, but he leaves Russia and the Balkan peninsula alone, as factors too indefinite for his calculations. From the rest of the area under consideration he deduces a conclusion by which he is plainly and confessedly terrified-so much so that, in spite of the evidence, he hardly dares to accept it. Writing in 1891 and in respect of the last thirty years open to his enquiry, he finds (pp. 183 ff.) an increase at the rate of 21 per cent.-say 13 millions per annum, or 6.6 per cent. in every decade. That is to say, if the population of that area continued to increase at the same rate as from 1850 to 1880 it would arrive in 1990 at close on 455 million.

Dr Newsholme, in Elements of Vital Statistics,' brings the story down rather later; but it is neither a strikingly different, nor a greatly more consoling story. He sets out at length the annual increase per cent. of a large number of countries. The last period under his review runs from 1891 to 1895. New Zealand and Ceylon give the highest mean annual increase for these years, the former 2.09 per cent. per annum, the latter 2:16. Immigration obviously is a main source of their increase, as also in the case of Chile, which comes next in order with 1.96. The rate for the United States was 1.73. And these accessions are achieved without any undue drain on the older countries from which the immigrants are taken. England and Wales, in spite of their emigration, show an increase of 1.15 a year. Germany does considerably