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Now, I think this is true not only in the Middle East and Israel, but also when you visit any kind of an area.

INTELLIGENCE

Mr. WOLFF. One last point that I think is important. I was very much troubled at the time when the Soviets first installed their missiles on the canal and that the Israelis had indicated that their intelligence had revealed these missiles were being deployed.

We said that our answer to that is that we don't know whether they are, and there was a period of about 4 or 5 days. I questioned the Israelis about the authenticity of the information.

Subsequently, it was revealed that they did supply the correct information.

I questioned, subsequent to that, any number of our people over there and here as well, as to why we were not able to get this information, and this is a very cloudy area that exists, and I think that is something that should be cleared up even for our own subcommittee. Mr. FULTON. How do you mean that?

Mr. WOLFF. I mean that either our intelligence is very bad-and I can't believe that. We certainly have the sophisticated equipment to ascertain this very easily. I am of the opinion that we possibly concurred in the Israeli information, but the fact is that we waited some time, and I am afraid that we did the same thing there that we did in Berlin when they built the wall.

I think the fact that we did wait before acknowledging the fact that these missiles were being put in place gave the Soviets courage to complete their enplacement and to go further.

I think that is a situation that cannot be permitted to continue in the future.

Mr. HAMILTON. Thank you very much, Congressman Wolff.

The next witness of the subcommittee is Congressman Rosenthal.
Mr. ROSENTHAL. I am going to defer to Mr. Long.

Mr. HAMILTON. The next witness will be Congressman Long of Maryland. We are very pleased to have you before the subcommittee Mr. Long, and we are ready to receive your comments.

STATEMENT OF HON. CLARENCE D. LONG, A REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM THE STATE OF MARYLAND

Mr. LONG. I am very pleased to appear before this very knowledgeable group. I have visited recently both Israel and Egypt. In Egypt, I talked to most of the top leaders, including the Chief of Police Gomaa, who we learned later was among the leaders of those who tried to overthrow President Sadat.

PRESIDENT SADAT

In addition, I saw President Sadat-in fact I am the first American House Member to be granted an interview with Sadat. I spent half an hour with him at his palace, formerly the residence of the British engineer who designed the locks.

He received me and the U.S. Minister, Donald C. Bergus, in the garden, sitting at a table. I attached no particular significance to this

at the time, but in view of the later publicity given to Sadat's charge that the police had listened in on his conversations in his palace, it is possible that this was why.

I wandered through Cairo by myself at night. I took some long walks. I was driven up to banks of the Nile, to several of their industries, including the steel mill, which the Russians completed for the Egyptians a couple of years ago.

VISIT TO ISRAEL

Subsequently, I visited Israel and talked to Abba Eban, to Pinhas Sapir, Minister of Finance, to David Horowitz, head of the National Bank and a group of economists from Hebrew University.

I visited the Dead Sea, drove up the West Bank through Jericho, to Tiberias on the Sea of Galilee, and all around the Golan Heights.

Now, from this visit my principal conclusion-based on observations, conversations, and economic analysis-is that time is very much on Israel's side. Israel is producing about the same gross national product as Egypt, although it has only one-eleventh of the population. Israel is moving ahead at one of the fastest rates economically of any country in the world. Israel hopes for a doubling of population in the next 20 years from natural growth and immigration. If Israel continues. her 6 percent annual growth in real output per capita, this will mean a sixfold increase in total output in the next two decades. In contrast, Egypt is growing slowly-barely keeping ahead of a population growth which is a hindrance rather than a help, since Egypt is already bursting with unabsorbed labor.

EGYPT'S EXCESS EMPLOYMENT

Indeed, what strikes you everywhere in Egypt are the crowds of people whom nobody seems to know what to do with. When you visit an important official, you are met by two or three men who open the door of your car. Two or three others wave you into the door of the building. Several more stand inside and point you to the elevator. Two men man the elevator. Three or four wait for you when you get to the floor. There may be 20 to 30 people between your car and the minister. In a single cage on the first floor of the National Bank, I counted 50 clerks working in a small area.

This excess employment is apparently in lieu of welfare, with the result that their population is a dead weight. Moreover, they are. by their own admission, making little progress in increasing output per capita. They are struggling to get birth control, but so far without success. I think both Egypt and Israel are convinced that time is on Israel's side; indeed Sadat has said so explictly on a recent occasion. That may be why Egypt is so anxious for an early settlement and why Israel is not quite so anxious, and wants to scrutinize the contract very carefully before signing on the dotted line.

MEETING WITH SADAT

President Sadat is an engaging person, a great improvement on Nasser, though there is no question that he is intensely nationalistic and strongly anti-Israel.

He told me that he wants peace, needs peace. "All of our resources, which we need for education and economic development, are going for war.”

He said further that he realized that the Americans are not going to let Israel be destroyed.

He went on further to intimate a desire to get the Russians out. In his words, "I want to be frank with you. I am very grateful to the Russians; they helped us in our hour of need and I am going to give them bases, but I went to jail to get rid of the British and I don't want any foreigners on my soil."

He said, also and Minister Bergus who was with me indicated that this was the first such public admission-that "the Russians are manning our SAM III sites and we are paying for them in hard cash." If they are paying for this service in hard money-and there may be some question of this-that would add to the desire to get the Russians out of Egypt.

Mr. FULTON. Does "hard cash" mean Egyptian currency?

Mr. LONG. I don't think that could be called "hard cash." I don't want to say that this is definitely hard money, but only that is what he told me.

However, the political office of the U.S. Ministry expressed some skepticism on that.

THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIETS IN EGYPT

This may interest you. I asked Sadat who is going to pay for clearing up the canal?

He said you Americans are. You are the cause of all of our troubles and you are going to pay every cent of it, and he smiled.

He then suggested some sort of a loan based on tolls.

That gave me another insight. Part of the anxiety to minimize the Russian presence is that they would like to be back in a situation where they can play both United States and Russia against each other, in order to get help from both sides something they can't very well do under the circumstances.

I visited the steel mill built by the Russians for Egypt, a mill they are very proud of, but which has to be a pathetic operation. It employs 6.000 workers and produces 300,000 tons a year. I have visited steel mills 25 years ago in the United States which were far more up to date than this one is now.

Worse than this, the ingots come from Russia, the coal comes from Russia, and the finished product is shipped back to Russia.

This is the kind of help that the Russians are giving them.

Mr. FULTON. Did you mention the dam?

Mr. LONG. The Egyptians wouldn't let me anywhere near the dam. They call it the High Dam. It is taking longer to fill up than expected. It is counted on to add another fifth to their irrigated land.

TALKS IN ISRAEL

When I reached Israel, I talked to Eban and others. I found them skeptical of the Egyptian desire for peace. Pinhas Sapir said to me: "Everybody wants peace if they can get what they want. But do they

really want peace when they say they won't give up a single inch of territory and they want the Israelis to agree to this before negotiations even begin." There is also fear among Israeli officials that some other group may overthrow Sadat, a fear which we now see has some foundation. As Eban said, if we give up a lot of territory, and the Egyptians chose to attack, "we would look pretty silly."

I also raised the question with Eban and others concerning Sadat's statement that "we want peace, but we cannot give up one inch of Arab territory."

To what extent is this Middle East bargaining? In the Middle East, everybody asks for the sun, moon, and stars as the asking price and looks with contempt at the other fellow's offer. Is this "we won't give up one inch." just a beginning of the bargaining?

Eban was skeptical of this also. So there appears to be quite a wide gap between them as matters stand now.

But I do think the longer this impasse remains, the more favorable it is to the Israelis relative to the Egyptians, though I think this impasse is in an absolute sense unfavorable to both.

BEN GURION STATEMENT

In this connection it is interesting to quote David Ben Gurion's recent statement to the Saturday Review. He said:

Peace, real peace, is now the great necessity for us. It is worth almost any sacrifice. To get it, we must return to the borders of 1967. If I were still prime minister, I would announce that we are prepared to give back all of the territory occupied in the Six-Day War, except East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights-Jerusalem for history's sake and the Golan Heights for security.

Now, that is a remarkable statement coming from the George Washington of Israel. I wouldn't presume to tell the Israelis what to do. I don't think we ought to impose any kind of a peace on Israel and Egypt, if only because I don't think it would last. You have to get a peace which both sides regard as being to their advantage.

MILITARY RELATIONSHIP

I don't think Egypt could conquer Israel. Israel is by far the most powerful force in the Middle East, and in the next 10 or 20 years it is going to be a little giant. But in the meantime, war and tension is causing 25 percent of her GNP to go for war.

The fact that all of Israel's young men and women spend 3 years of their lives in the army must be a terrible drain on Israel. In addition, guerrilla terror produces profound effects on the country; it is hard to maintain a real democratic society and a very progressive one if you are going to live in that type of siege situation for a long while.

So it seems to me that Israel would have a lot to gain to maintain peace, and to keep Sadat and other "moderates" in power.

America and the American Jewish community also have a great stake in peace. Together they have given, loaned, invested, or otherwise transferred to Israel about $8 billion. I can give you the figures. Since the United States has 65 times Israel's population, this would be the equivalent of giving, loaning, and investing $500 billion in our country.

So I think we have a great stake in our investment in Israel, to say nothing of our oil interests in Arab countries.

Mr. HAMILTON. Congressman Long, your observations have been most helpful to the subcommittee. We are especially interested in the remarks of President Sadat, and we appreciate very much your coming before this subcommittee to share your views.

SUPPORT FOR BEN GURION NOW

I have only one question, I think. What kind of support did you find in Israel for Ben Gurion's position?

Mr. LONG. I didn't know then about Ben Gurion's position. I read about it after I came back. Eban indicated to me that Israel might give up the West Bank under certain conditions and it might give up the Sinai. He was a little vague on the old city. The real sticking points will be Sharm al-Shaykh, the Golan Heights and the demilitarization of the East Bank on the Sinai.

Ben Gurion would give up Sharm al-Shaykh. Ben Gurion would be considerably more dovish than Eban would be, but most of the people you talk to, including the economists at the university, were suspicious of the Egyptians and inclined to think that real estate was very important to security.

So the limited number of people I talked to, including the driver who took me around, a major in the reserve and a very knowledgeable person, were all more hawkish than Ben Gurion. I think the Ben Gurion position would be quite exceptional in Israel. That is my opinion.

Mr. HAMILTON. Congressman Fulton?

POSSIBILITY OF PARTIAL SETTLEMENT

Mr. FULTON. In your experience and observation, do you think that a partial settlement is possible within the near future as distinguished from a complete settlement and permanent peace, at least the first step?

Mr. LONG. Well, it might be that only a partial settlement is possible.

Mr. FULTON. Would you recommend that emphasis of U.S. foreign policy be put on obtaining a partial settlement?

Mr. LONG. I certainly would, yes. I think that any kind of tentative settlement you can get is a step in the right direction, because I don't believe you are going to be able to solve this all at once as a simultaneous equation.

Mr. HAMILTON. Congressman Bingham?

Mr. BINGHAM. I find your statement most interesting, and particularly your comments on what President Sadat had to say. Who accompanied you? Did Mr. Bergus?

U.S. MISSION IN CAIRO

Mr. LONG. Yes, sir, Mr. Bergus, the U.S. Minister there. Our U.S. Minister operates as an adjunct to and under the letterhead of the Spanish Embassy, and he is performing a strategic role there.

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