if need be, by the American fleet. She has less confidence in the second, the League of Nations. The formation of a League of Nations has in fact shattered in some degree the expectations of Australia. Another league seemed to be within measurable distance of realisation. The United States is also deeply interested, though in a less degree, in the question of Chinese and Japanese immigration, and in the destinies of the Pacific shores. The tension between Japan and America on this account has more than once been menacing. It appeared at one time as though it would be possible to form a compact between the British Empire and the United States to guarantee the territorial status quo until such time as Australia had grown to maturity. But such questions as the future of the Pacific and its islands and the lands that encompass it will henceforth be debated in the councils of the League of Nations. The peoples of the East will unquestionably appeal to the international tribunal. The opinions of such countries as France, Belgium, Switzerland and a host of small nations, and, we may add, Germany, would be strongly in favour of a compromise, such as the admission of the Asiatic to tropical Australasia; and they would carry the majority with them. Australia, with or without the support of the Empire, would fight to the last man rather than agree to such a proposal. But would America help her in such an event? It was always doubtful; in the light of recent events it is inconceivable.

In any forecast which may be made as to the relative strength of the British Empire and of the nations of the East we are dealing with unknown quantities. But we may be helped by a comparison of the prospects, fifty or sixty years ago, of Canada and Japan. Both were then weak countries, but no one would have supposed that in less than half a century Japan would have so far distanced Canada as to have been able to defeat a firstrate European power on land and sea. The Japanese Empire counts to-day 77,000,000 of inhabitants. The total rate of increase of population, including Korea and Formosa, is about a million a year. In some twenty years it will have attained to 100,000,000 inhabitants, without taking into consideration such problematic gains as Shantung or other Chinese territories. Japanese

trade and wealth are growing at an astonishing rate. The suicidal tendencies observable in European industries are giving the Japanese a unique opportunity. They will develop China, if China does not develop itself. They manifest the vigour of a new race-the patriotism and the ambitions of a successful race. Does any one believe that this people can be confined to its own narrow islands? The expansion of Japan is as inevitable as was the expansion of England. Would the islands of the Malay Archipelago satisfy them? They are watching the great continent beyond.

In a good cause Australia could depend upon the whole forces of the mother-country and of the white races of the Empire. But if the cause is doubtful, if the Australians are held to have made insufficient use of their land, what then? Are we to repeat the overweening blunder of Spain, in striving to keep for ourselves a world we cannot use? If so, history may also repeat the defeat of the Spanish Armada. Where Japan goes China will follow. The 'Yellow Peril' is no extravagance of a fervent imagination. Chinese students have for years been thronging to Japan in thousands to learn the secret of her success. China will make up in mass for the slowness of her motion. Her momentum may become greater than that of her neighbour. We are in the presence of gigantic forces. To take one item only, it is difficult to overestimate the result of the application in scientific and methodical fashion of the labour of patient millions to 250,000 square miles of coalfields. Industrial progress has an inevitable bearing upon war. China and Japan, having settled their differences, may some day be in a position to meet the world in arms.

Nothing can be more agreeable to the oriental than the cry 'Australia for the Australians.' In so far as the catchword means that the actual inhabitants object to sharing the wealth of their continent with the people of the old country or with other whites, in so far as it means discrimination within Australia of a nature to make the country less attractive to the newcomer, in so far, even, as it means unwillingness to shoulder burdens in order to increase the speed or area of settlement, 'Australia for the Australians' to-day means 'Australia for the Asiatics' to-morrow. Australians will have to

face the fact that their ultimate heritage in Australia will be in exact proportion to their hospitality to the races most akin to themselves.

There are three possible futures for Australia. The first is that the continent should remain entirely 'white'; the second is that it should be divided between the Europeans and the Asiatics: the third is that it should become entirely or virtually Asiatic. The first of these possibilities is the goal set before themselves by the Australian people. It can be made a reality only by a supreme effort. The means to be adopted are fairly plain. Migration at a maximum speed from the mothercountry, sufficient in amount to effect a gradual transference of a large proportion of her population; assisted immigration from other European lands, particularly from Italy, into the warmer temperate regions; maintenance and, so far as possible, enhancement of the natural increase of population; development of the tropical portions by indentured labour, or by other methods that may prove efficacious, short of actual Asiatic settlement. The second and third possibilities need not detain us long. They are each intensely repugnant to the Australians; they would be preceded by extremities of human suffering; but one or other is unavoidable unless the most vigorous measures adopted. Australia can save herself by her own exertions, not otherwise.

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The practical steps which would have to be taken to effect a migration of many millions of British men and women and their establishment in a new land cannot be described here in any detail. A few leading principles only may be briefly considered. Hitherto emigration has been conducted with reference to the numbers which a given colony can absorb in a specified time. In the absence of due provision, emigrants in excess of this power of absorption would become a charge upon the colonists. But, where emigration is directed to a favourable locality, and undertaken by a powerful organisation or by a government, there is no such limitation. Given abundance of fertile land, expert advice, temporary support, newcomers can be settled as fast as the railways can be built. The emigrant must be equal to his work; he can be made so by being trained in the land of his

adoption. There is no special mystery about life in a new land. The ordinary man can be made an efficient colonist just as surely as, and much more readily than, he can be made a good soldier. He can become selfsupporting, or nearly so, from the start. All previous records in emigration could easily be eclipsed by the adoption of a well-devised scheme.

The expenses of transportation and settlement should be borne entirely by the country to which the emigrant takes his muscle and bone and brain. In going to a colony he increases its wealth by the value of his lifework. In an overstocked old country he may be an encumbrance; in a new country he is an asset. The effect of his entry into a neighbourhood is speedily seen in the increase in the value of property. If a certain proportion of the lands developed by the newcomers were to be set apart for the purpose, their increment of value, realised by sale or rental, would provide the funds required to subsidise the scheme of immigration. The only sort of emigration which we should encourage is one which turns to account the natural resources of the Empire or, in other words, which multiplies its wealth. This wealth enriches the new countries principally and directly; the old country is only benefited indirectly, except in so far as its capital is employed.

But what if Australia neglects to make the great effort that is required, preferring to sit at ease in the land she calls her own? In that case Australia can take no part in any constructive scheme of migration. So far as can be seen, there can be but one end to the attempt to hold for the white man a continent so closely linked to Asia. The prospect is not an attractive one, nor should we be justified in recommending colonists to settle in a situation thus threatened. In homely phrase, it would be throwing good money after bad. Our children are our riches, when all is said. Without Australia there is yet ample space within the Empire for as many as we can profitably spare; in New Zealand, where complete development is entirely feasible, and above all, in Canada, whose needs are second only to those of Australia.

Whether we take the Empire as a whole or confine our attention to any of its larger portions, there is

With negligible exceptions,

no surplus of population. there is a niche for every one where he could not only lead a useful and happy life but where also his presence would be a factor of security. The millions of our countrymen whom in the past we have been so ready to fling away-the greater number to the United States -are the most important element in the 'resources of the Empire,' without whom, indeed, these resources are a snare and an incentive to attack. It is to be hoped that these unvalued millions will be husbanded to better use in the future.

A thousand motives urge us to action, but they are in danger of being forgotten amid the clamour of the catchwords. We are rightly concerned about our export trade. That problem, like many another, would no longer trouble us if our prosperity were based upon the mother-earth at our doors. To give a great people the freedom of its lands; to abolish the extraordinary spectacle of chronic unemployment, while countless millions of acres lie unused; to turn the masses from the vain dream of unlimited prosperity obtainable in an overcrowded corner; to dismiss for ever the dread of attacks upon the food supply; to lay the spectre of cutthroat foreign competition and become sufficient for ourselves; to aid our far-off kinsmen in maintaining the integrity of the Empire-in order to accomplish these aims but one thing is primarily necessary, viz. to spread a knowledge of the facts, to stimulate by all means in our power a thorough study of the question of emigration and of the connexion between pressure of population and economic stress, and to bring home, especially to our fellow-citizens in the Britains overseas, the dangers which threaten us in the not remote future.

FLEETWOOD CHIDELL,