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THE CHANGING OF THE BALANCE OF POWER.

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Future generations may see in the largely upon the maintenance of the battle on the Ergene River one of the balance of power on the Continent. decisive battles of the world and in Its necessity was well summarized by the war which is drawing to its end Frederick the Great in his Anti-Machia. a milestone on the road of the world's vel in the following words: history. The Turkish War has closed The tranquillity of Europe rests the European career of one of the most principally upon the wise maintenance successful and most dreaded conquer

of the balance of power by which the ing nations. Only a comparatively

superior strength of one State is made

harmless by the countervailing weight short time ago_during the rule of

of several States united among themCharles the Second and Louis the

selves. In

this equilibrium Fourteenth and during the lifetime of

should disappear, it is to be feared Peter the Great, Prince Eugene, the

that a universal revolution will be the great Duke of Marlborough, Sir Isaac result, and that an enormous Newton and William Penn—the Turks monarchy will be established upon held the Continent of Europe in awe,

the ruins of those States which were and besieged Vienna. To-day their too weak for individual resistance and

which lacked the necessary spirit to rule in Europe is a thing of the past,

unite in time. and it is doubtful whether they will

If Egypt, Syria, and

Macedonia had combined against the be able to keep even their Asiatic

Roman Power, they would not have possessions. Turkey's downfall is

been overthrown. A wisely framed significant not only to those who re

alliance and an energetic war would flect upon the past but also to those have preserved the ancient world from who look into the future; for it may the chains of a universal despotism. completely alter the very foundation of It should be remembered that the modern statecraft and of modern polit greatest wars which Europe has witical organization. In consequence of nessed were brought about by the atTurkey's defeat the balance of power tempts of ambitious rulers or nations in Europe, which is the very founda- to destroy the balance of power in ortion of its political, social and eco- der to establish their predominance in nomic life, has begun to change, and Europe. The attempts of Charles the no one can foresee the ultimate conse- Fifth, Philip the Second, Louis the quences of that change to Europe and Fourteenth, and Napoleon the First to to the world.

obtain the mastery of Europe devas. The policy of maintaining an equi- tated the Continent and forced Great librium among States is as old as is Britain to interfere for the sake of her civilization. It was constantly prac- own security. tised by the civilized States of an- Until a recent time only the five tiquity. The balance of power is a Continental Great Powers were firmly device for preserving peace among organized for mutual support. They States. It is a device for restraining formed two groups—the Triple Alliany single State from becoming so ance composed of Germany, Austriapowerful that it can without great risk Hungary and Italy, and the Dual Allimake war upon other States and de- ance composed of France and Russia. stroy the independence of its neigh- Great Britain held aloof from the nabors. The security of Great Britain tions of the Continent. The Triple and the peace of Europe depends very Alliance and the Dual Alliance formed

a very efficient balance of power. The late General Maurice showed in his book The Balance of Military Power in Europe that the two groups of Powers were approximately equally strong on land and on sea. Great Britain had no Continental policy, and she had no need for one.

It was not necessary for her to labor for the preservation of the balance of power in Europe.

Germany put an end to England's policy of non-interference in Continental affairs. Her anti-British policy, which began with the Krüger telegram of 1896, the rapid increase of the German Navy, the anti-British agitation throughout Germany, and official pronouncements such as that contained in the preamble of the great German Navy Bill of 1900_"Germany requires a fleet of such strength that a war against the mightiest naval Power would involve risks threatening the supremacy of that Power"-were manifestations the significance of which could not possibly be misunderstood in this country. The keenness with which, since 1900, Germany be. gan to compete with Great Britain on the seas will be seen from the following figures: Money Voted for Naval Construction In Great Britain In Germany £

£ 1900 9,788,146 3,401,907 1901 10,420,256 4,921,036 1902 10,436,520 5,039,725 1903 11,473,030 4,388,748 1904 13,508,176 4,275,489 1905 11,291,002 4,720,206 1906 10,859,500 5,167,319 1907 9,227,000 5,910,959 1908 8,660,202 7,795,499 1909 11,227,194 10,177,062 1910 13,279,830 11,392,856 1911 15,063,877 12,250,269 1912 13,972,527 11,787,565 In the course of twelve short years Germany's expenditure on naval construction increased by 8,385,0001., or by no less than 247 per cent, whilst

Great Britain increased her expenditure only by 4,184,0001., or by 43 per cent. In 1900 Germany expended on naval construction only about onethird as much as was spent by Great Britain. During the last five years she spent on warship building nearly as much as did this country.

Germany's attitude and policy, the threatening language of her politicians, her professors and her Press, and the ominous increase of the German navy, which remained concentrated in the North Sea within striking distance of Great Britain's shores, compelled this country, as I was allowed to point out in this Review for the first time in August 1902, to seek support with Germany's opponents, and in the first instance with France. The AngloFrench Entente was concluded in 1904.

Russia's defeat in Manchuria destroyed the balance of power in Europe. It made the Triple Alliance supreme. In 1905, immediately after Russia's decisive defeat, Germany brought about the first Morocco crisis. It was well-timed. As crippled Russia could not assist France, Great Britain bad to take her part; for in view of Germany's anti-British attitude she could not allow France to be humiliated or defeated. Furthermore, it became Great Britain's task, as I pointed out in this Reviewo in March, May, and July 1905, in April 1906, and in September 1907, to support Russia against her Western neighbor until she had recovered from her defeats. An AngloRussian Entente was necessary, and it was concluded in 1907. The Triple Alliance was faced by a Triple Entente. The balance of power, which the Russo-Japanese War had destroyed, was thus re-established.

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1 "The Anti-British Movement in Germany.".

2 "The Renewal of the Japanese Alliance"; “The Balance of Power in Europe"; "The Collapse of Russia; "The Future of AngloGerman Relations: a reply to Lord Avebury';

The Anti-British Policy of Germany: a rejoinder to Lord Eversloy."

Germany complained bitterly that Count Aehrenthal, and the Marquis of Great Britain tried to isolate her and Pallavicini, and Italy Count Tornielli. to crib and confine her by a network The Bucharest Embassy became perof hostile ententes. Her complaints haps the most important embassy of were scarcely justified, for after the the Powers of the Triple Alliance. conclusion of the Triple Entente Ger- During many years it has been Germany was still supreme in Europe. many's policy to strengthen Turkey The Triple Alliance was in reality a against Russia. Through the unceasQuintuple Alliance in disguise. Up to ing activity of her statesmen, Germany the outbreak of the Balkan War Ger- had acquired the role of Turkey's many could, in case of a great Euro- guide, friend, and protector. She had pean contest, count upon the support assisted the Turks by providing them of Turkey and Roumania.

with money, arms, railways, and exRoumania, after having saved Rus- pert advisers. She had lent them sia from defeat in the Russo-Turkish some of her most eminent officers War, was despoiled by that country from Moltke to Colmar von der Goltz. of Bessarabia. Henceforth Roumania Baron Marschall, Germany's ablest became hostile to Russia and formed diplomat, represented his country at the intention of regaining her lost terri- Constantinople during nearly two dectories at the first opportunity. Rou- ades. When, at the time of the Armania's foreign policy was directed menian massacres, the world recoiled chiefly by King Charles, a Prince of from Abdul Hamid with horror, the House of Hohenzollern, and he be- William the Second visited him at his came not unnaturally a determined capital, pressed his hand, publicly supporter of the Triple Alliance. The praised his ability, accepted his hospifact that with General Brialmont's tality, and slept under his roof. On assistance, he fortified very strongly the 8th of November 1899, at a banthe eastern frontier of Roumania fac- quet at Damascus, he proclaimed himing Russia, and left unfortified the self the protector of Mahommedanism frontier facing Austria-Hungary, throughout the world in the words: openly proclaimed Roumania's policy "May the Sultan of Turkey, and may to the world. Roumania's support the 300,000,000 Mahommedans throughwas bound to be extremely valuable out the world who venerate in him to the Triple Alliance. Roumania has their Caliph, be assured that the Gera well-armed and well-organized army man Emperor will be their friend at of 500,000 men. Owing to her geo- all times.” Germany cultivated Turgraphical position, she can, in the case key's good will most assiduously. She of a war with Russia, create a very attached the greatest value to Tureffective diversion by attacking that key's support not so much for ecocountry in the south, her most vul- nomic as for strategical reasons, for nerable part. As that country's sup- Turkey was able not only to attack port in case of a war with Russia Russia in the south in conjunction would have been extremely valuable, with Roumania, but she was the only the Powers of the Triple Alliance en- Power through which Germany was dea vored to gain Roumania's good able to strike an effective blow at will. They sent to Roumania their Great Britain. General von Bernhardi, most eminent diplomats. Germany a leading general and one of the most sent as ambassadors Prince Bülow and eminent strategists and military wri. Herr von Kiderlin-Wächter, Austria- ters of Germany, wrote in his recently Hungary sent Count Goluchowski, published book, Unsere Zukunft, which

war.

ought to be translated into English: her a member of the Triple Alliance,

Turkey would have received a twoParticularly important for Germany

fold gain. are her relations with Turkey and

Her position would have Roumania. Both States are capable

been secured both against Russia and of forming an effective counterpoise

against England, two States with the against Russia. Besides, Turkey is

hostility of which we Germans have

to reckon. Besides, Turkey is the only the only State which is able to threaten

Power which can threaten England's seriously England's position and to attack that country by land, because

position in Egypt, and thus menace Turkey can strike at the Suez Canal,

her shortest sea route to India and her and so cut through the most sensitive

land communications with that denerve of England and hit at a point

pendency. Therefore we ought to

spare no sacrifice in order to secure which is of vital importance to her. Furthermore, the existence of a power

Turkey as Germany's ally in preparaful Turkey in Europe is of the utmost

tion for a war with England or Russia.

Turkey's interests are our own. importance to Germany, because it

The Turkish military forces would provides the only neutral route over which she can obtain foreign food and

be a factor of great importance in the raw materials for her industries in

event of Turkey joining either the

The case of war. In the North, England Triple Alliance or its opponents. would blockade our coasts. In the

war strength of the Turkish Army

comes to 700,000 men. Owing to the Mediterranean, England and France would cut us off from the ocean.

high military qualities of the Turkish Towards the east and west we should

soldiers, the Turkish Army must be rebe cut off from the world's trade by

garded as a very important factor in Russia and France. Therefore we can

She is a very valuable ally to

that Power, or combination of Powers, never tolerate that European Turkey

which she chooses to join. should fall under Russian, which means under hostile, influence. That The Baghdad Railway was built by would probably also be the case if the Germany, not only for the purpose of smaller Balkan States should be al

providing an outlet for German capital lowed to expand towards the Aegean

and of promoting the military and ecoSea. Turkey's military power must be preserved. It must be preserved in

nomic regeneration of Turkey, but order to be of use to Germany. А

also, and perhaps particularly, with militarily weakened Turkey would not

the object of facilitating Turkish cobe able to resist Slavdom successfully, operation in case of an Anglo-German and it could not remain independent war. Dr. Paul Rohrbach, a leading Gerof Russian and British policy.

man publicist and traveller, who has In his book Deutschland und der studied the Baghdad Railway in all nichste Krieg, which has been trans- its aspects, travelling through Asia lated into English, the same author Minor, wrote in his book Die Bagdadwrote:

bahn, which was published in 1911: Turkey, the predominant Power of One factor, and one alone, will dethe Near East, is of paramount impor- termine the possibility of a successful tance to Germany. She is Germany's issue for Germany in case of an Anglonatural ally. It is emphatically in our German conflict. A direct attack interest to keep in close touch with upon England across the North Sea is her. The wisest course would have out of the question. England can be been to have made her a member of attacked and mortally wounded by the Triple Alliance and to have pre- land, and from Europe, only in one vented the Turkish-Italian war, which place in Egypt. The loss of Egypt threatens to change the political situa- would mean to England not only the tion to our disadvantage. By making end of her control over the Suez Canal and the destruction of her connection upon the assistance of Roumania and with India and the Far East, but Turkey in case of a war with Russia, would probably entail the loss of her

and particularly upon Turkey's copossessions in Central and East Africa

operation in case of a war with Great as well. The conquest of Egypt by

Britain. The directors of Germany's a Mohammedan Power like Turkey would also jeopardize England's rule

foreign policy, like Napoleon the First, over her 60,000,000 Mohammedan sub

evidently saw in Egypt the key to the jects in India, and prejudice her rela

British Empire. Their aim was of tions with Afghanistan and Persia. truly Napoleonic boldness and gran

The Turkish Army must be in- deur. Germany's action in Turkey creased and improved, and Turkey had revealed the object of her policy must be commercially and economi

to attentive observers. Her activity cally rehabilitated. The stronger Tur

had remained not unnoticed in Engkey grows, the more dangerous will

land. Lord Kitchener, the Empire's she be for England. Egypt is a prize which would make it well worth Tur

greatest soldier, was sent to Egypt key's wbile to support Germany

not merely on an administrative misagainst England. The policy of protect

sion. ing Turkey, which is now pursued In view of the fact that Germany by Germany, has no other object in had driven Great Britain into the arms view except the desire to effect an of France and Russia, and had exinsurance against the danger of a war

posed herself to the possibility of beagainst England.

ing simultaneously involved in a great Another well-informed and very in

war by land and sea, it was of course fuential German writer, Dr. Paul

of the utmost importance to her that Dehn, wrote in his book Der

her position on land should be absoDeutsche Gedanke in der Welt, of which

lutely impregnable. In these circummore than 100,000 copies have been

stances it was clearly the first and sold:

most urgent duty of German statesIf the Baghdad Railway is pushed manship to take care that Austriaso far that it will reach Mecca and

Hungary and Italy should be as strong Haifa on the coast of Palestine, Eng

as possible, and that Roumania and land would have to calculate with the

Turkey-and especially Turkey, the possibility of a Turkish attack upon Egypt if she should attack either Tur

support of which would be invaluable key herself or a third Power which is

in case of complications with Great interested in Turkey's existence. It is Britain—should be firmly attached to true that three hundred miles separate Germany or to the Triple Alliance. Haifa from El Kantara, where the old But with the same incredible shorthigh-road from Syria to Egypt crosses sightedness and levity with which Gerthe Suez Canal, and that the road runs

many had embarked upon an antiin part through territory which is

British course, she allowed Turkey to poor in food and water. However, the road is level and comfortable, and

be attacked first by Italy and then by there are no natural obstacles to be

the Balkan States, and to be utterly overcome. ...

defeated. If Germany had possessed As long as the rails of the Baghdad a policy, if her diplomacy had been Railway have not reached Aleppo, we guided by a statesman, or merely by cannot count upon Turkish co-opera- a man possessed of common sense, she tion in the direction of Egypt.

would have known that the support of Many similar quotations could easily Turkey would be more valuable to her be given, but these should suffice to in the hour of need than that of Italy. show that Germany reckons confidently She woull, therefore, either have at

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