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tached Turkey to the Triple Alliance tween Russia and Austria-Hungary by treaty, as General von Bernhardi the Balkan States, or at least Servia had suggested, or she would have re- and Montenegro, may be expected to plied to Italy's ultimatum to Turkey aid Russia, and it should not be forby an ultimatum of her own addressed gotten that Austria-Hungary contains to Italy, which very likely would have 25,000,000 Slavs, of whom no fewer prevented the war.

than 5,500,000 are Servians, who live Italy's victory over Turkey, and close to the borders of the Servian Turkey's internal difficulties which State. had been created by the Italian attack, It is clear, therefore, that the Turkencouraged the Balkan States to make ish War has very seriously weakened war upon that country, and again the position of the Triple Alliance. Germany remained a passive looker-on It has deprived Germany and the while her valuable supporter was be- Triple Alliance of the invaluable suping assailed. The Balkan States would port of Turkey, which could, with a not have dared to attack Turkey had very large army, have attacked Russia they been informed by Germany and in the south, or Great Britain in Egypt. Austria-Hungary that they would not Moreover, it has set free the Balkan tolerate such an attack. Austria- States which hitherto were kept in Hungary, backed by Germany, might check by Turkey, and it has very have told Servia that an attack upon greatly strengthened their military Turkey would immediately be fol. power. In a few years they will problowed by the occupation of Belgrade, ably be able to support Russia with which lies on the Austrian frontier, almost a million men. Servia alone and Roumania could in conjunction will before long be able to mobilize have taken equally suitable and effec- almost 500,000. The hostility of Sertive action at Sofia. But the General via is particularly dangerous to AusStaffs, the statesmen, and the public tria-Hungary, because that country ocof Germany, Austria-Hungary, and cupies most valuable strategical Roumania believed that Turkey would position. Austria-Hungary is surdefeat the Balkan Allies. Germany rounded by vast mountain-chains, and Austria-Hungary allowed the which have a large gap, the Danube Turkish War to break out in the ex- Valley, facing Servia. In case of an pectation that it would result in the Austro-Russian war the Austrian artriumph of Turkey to the great advan- mies will be assembled in the northtage of the Triple Alliance.

east of the country, in Galicia. A The Turkish War has had an unex- Servian attack in the extreme south pected issue. It has led to the down- of the Dual Monarchy would, there. fall and the disappearance of Euro- fore, simultaneously threaten the pean Turkey and to the rise of the flank and rear of the Austrian defences Balkan nations. The Bulgarians, Ser- and the two capitals on the Danube. vians, and Montenegrins are Slavs. The Balkan War has not only They incline towards Russia, which caused to Germany and to the Triple has worked and fought for their de- Alliance the loss of Turkey, which liverance, and they dislike, distrust, would have been an exceedingly valand hate Austria-Hungary, which has uable ally, and the rise of a very danfomented disorder in the Balkan Pe- gerous potential enemy on the weakninsula and which has endeavored to est and most exposed frontier of keep the Balkan Slavs under the Austria-Hungary, but it has also made Turkish yoke. In case of a war be- Roumania's attitude uncertain. Rou

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was

mania has hitherto supported AustriaHungary and Germany against Russia, not only because she had a grievance against Russia, but also because she could not afford to stand alone between Russia and Austria-Hungary. For her security she had to lean on one of her great neighbors, and she believed that she would be safest in relying upon Austria-Hungary and the Triple Alliance, because she thought that the Triple Alliance

the stronger of the two groups. The changes which have taken place in the Balkan Peninsula have caused Roumania to reconsider her position. The issue of the war has so seriously changed the balance of power to the disadvantage of the Triple Alliance, that Roumania seems inclined to support Russia and the Triple Entente. This is all the more likely, as Roumania could benefit very materially from a defeat of Austria-Hungary. Roumania wishes to expand. There is a strong irredentist movement in that country. In those districts of Austria-Hungary which are nearest to Roumania there dwell no less than 3,500,000 Roumanians. They complain bitterly about the ill-treatment which they receive. They wish to be reunited with Roumania, and they are encouraged by their kinsmen in Roumania to resist their alien rulers who try to denationalize them by force. Roumania can expand most easily towards the north and west, towards Austria-Hungary.

Many judicious observers consider that in consequence of the Balkan War Germany and the Triple Alliance have lost not only the support of Turkey but also that of Roumania, and have gained instead the hostility of the powerful Balkan States. General von Bernhardi wrote in Unsere Zukunft:

There was reason to hope that Austria and Roumania would actively inter

fere either in order to prevent the outbreak of the Balkan War or at least in order to protect Turkey against a complete defeat. . . . It . was evidently in the interest of the Triple Alliance to delay the expulsion of the Turks from Europe until the time when the great European war has been fought which will decide the fate of the States of Central Europe. Now the Triple Alliance will have to fight the great war of the future under far more unfavorable conditions. Before the decisive battle on the Ergene River one could calculate on the fact that Turkey and Roumania would fight on the side of the Triple Alliance in case of a European war. The advantages of the co-operation of these States is clear. These advantages have been lost through Turkey's defeat, and a condition of affairs has been created which threatens Germany and its allies with the most serious dangers.

To all appearances Roumania also can no longer be counted upon as a possible supporter of the Triple Alliance. At present Roumania remains in touch with

the Triple Alliance in order to obtain with its assistance an increase of territory at Bulgaria's cost. Wedged in between a powerful Russia and a greatly enlarged Bulgaria, Roumania will no longer be able to pursue an independent policy. In all probability it will either fall under Russia's influence or join the Balkan Federation. In either case Roumania has nothing more to hope for from the Triple Alliance. Necessity will compel that country more or less energetically to take the part of Germany's enemies.

The Balkan States and Roumania, lying between Slays and Teutons, between hammer and anvil, occupy a very exposed position. They are too weak to stand alone. They have suffered from Austria's ill-will, intrigue, and oppression, and they can most easily grow at Austria's expense, which contains 5,500,000 Servians and 3,500,000 Roumanians. During the

of

settlement

the Balkan War dential information regarding the ne Servia and Montenegro have suffered cessity of strengthening the German severely through Austria's interfer- army very greatly, the Germania, the ence, which has prevented their ex- leading organ of the Centre Party, pansion in the direction of Albania. which previously had been singularly The Balkan democracies are drawn well supplied with confidential adtowards Russia through racial affinity vance information regarding the Govand towards France through affection ernment's intentions, wrote: and democratic sentiment. Sentiment

We have repeatedly stated that a and self-interest will very likely victory of the Balkan Allies is in realprompt them to join the Triple En- ity a Russian victory. When the great tente.

European War breaks out, the Triple The mistakes of Germany's diplo- Alliance will be opposed by the Triple macy have not only changed the group

Entente and the Balkan States, and ing of the European Powers to Ger

the latter will be found more ready

to fight the Triple Alliance than Engmany's disadvantage, but they have

land. Until lately it was thought in also weakened the power of her two

Germany that we should have to preAllies. Italy has, with Germany's

pare for the inevitable war with Engconsent and approval, tied up 100,000

land. The events of the last few soldiers in Tripoli, and as they are months have shown that a greater and dependent upon Italian supplies Italy more immediate danger threatens Gerhas not only greatly weakened her many from the direction of Russia. home army, but has given invaluable The Oriental question has assumed hostages to that country which rules

a new form. It may be summed up the Mediterranean. Whilst Turkey

in the words, Germanism versus Slar

dom. was strong, Austria-Hungary need not have feared the enmity of the Balkan When the diplomats of the Triple Slavs, and she could easily have used Alliance saw how seriously the balance her entire army against Russia.

In

of power was changing to their disadconsequence of the Balkan War she vantage, they thought of entering into has to place about 300,000 men on her more intimate relations with Spain, southern frontier in case of a war with who might have aided the Central Russia. German diplomacy directs European group by attacking France the Triple Alliance. It has speculated in the rear, and compelling that coun. rashly on a Turkish victory over the try to leave several army corps on the Balkan States, a victory which would Pyrenees. But recent events seem to have increased Turkey's strength and show that Spain has entered upon very which would have been to the advan- close relations with France, and it aptage of the Triple Alliance. Turkey pears not impossible that some of the has collapsed like a house of cards, smaller nations of Europe will by and and with it has fallen the predom- by follow Spain's example. The Triple inance of the Triple Alliance on the Entente promises to become a Multiple ('ontinent of Europe.

Entente. The Balkan War has been a grave On the 22nd of September 1898 the defeat of Germany and of the Triple German Emperor proclaimed at StetAlliance, and a great victory of Slav- tin: "Germany's future lies upon the dom. That is clearly recognized in water." As he chose for Chancellors Germany. On the same day when the not able men of strong character but German Chancellor placed before the pliable and obedient men, that phrase party leaders of the Reichstag confi- became the watch word of German

.

statesmanship. Bismarck recognized this Review an article entitled “The that Germany's principal interest lay Failure of Post-Bismarckian Geron land. He had pursued with great many,” in which I ventured to state: success a sober and practical conti- By pursuing an anti-British policy nental policy, and we learn from his Germany has not only driven Great

Britain from Germany's side and has letters and speeches that he attached

driven her into the arms of France the greatest value to England's good

and Russia, but she has at the same will and support. His successors

time gravely weakened the formerly perhaps one ought to say his successor

reliable Triple Alliance.

A na-although they were devoid not only

tion can safely embark upon a bold of striking ability but even of stability and costly trans-maritime policy only of purpose, deliberately discarded Bis. if it is secure on land, if it either ocmarck's continental policy and pro- cupies an island, like Great Britain claimed proudly their intention to em- and Japan, or if it occupies an isobark upon a world-policy, and their

lated position and cannot be invaded

by its neighbors, like the United policy became, perhaps involuntarily,

States. Germany has three great land an anti-British one.

General von

Powers for neighbors. Two of them, Bernhardi wrote with justified bitter

France and Russia, are not friendly ness in his book Unsere Zukunft:

to Germany, and she cannot rely with The insufficient capacity of the

absolute certainty upan the support of leading statesmen of Germany has her third neighbor, Austria-Hungary a only too often become apparent, and fact of which Bismarck warned her in it can easily be accounted for. The his Memoirs. Under these circumstances men who are called into the Govern

it is obvious that Germany's greatest ment and administration of the Ger- need is not expansion oversea, but deman Empire are not always the great

fence on land; that her greatest interest, the most intelligent, and the

ests lie not on the sea, but on terra soundest men obtainable, nor are they firma. always men possessed of great strength Guided by the maxim “Germany's of character. Favor and chance future lies upon the water," the play mostly a decisive role in their

leaders of the “New Course' have selection and appointment.

been anxious to strengthen the In feverish haste Germany began to Navy that the German Army has been build up a colossal fleet. In 1900 Ger- neglected both

quantitatively and many occupied with her fleet of qualitatively. . . Germany's expenbattleships only the sixth place among

diture upon the Navy has been comthe nations. To-day she occupies the

paratively extra vagant and that on

hier Army scarcely sufficient. Acsecond place, having overtaken Italy,

cording to the German Constitution, Russia, France, and the United States.

every German citizen able to bear Never in the history of the world since

arms has to bear arms. Germany's the time when Rome embarked upon population came in 1900 to 56,367,178 her struggle with Carthage has a great people. In 1910 it was 64,896,881 fleet been built up so rapidly. But people, having increased by a little Rome was able to challenge the sea- more than 8,500,000. It used to be the

rule in Germany that a fixed proporpower of Carthage because she was

tion of the population, about 1.1 per safe on land, because her land fron

cent., belonged to the standing army. tiers were not threatened by powerful

Between 1901 and 1910 the German military neighbors. The unwisdom and

Army ought to have increased in the the danger of Germany's policy was

normal course by about 93,000 men, obvious. In June 1912, exactly a year which is equal to about 1.1 per cent. ago, I was allowed to contribute to on the 8,500,000 people by whom the

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population was increased. But in- perhaps that of Roumania as well, stead of adding 93,000 men to the which together could aid the Triple standing army, Germany has added

Alliance with 1,200,000 men, and as she to it only 18,000, or but one-fifth of

has acquired at the same time in the the normal number.

Balkan States a possible enemy able These statements met incred- to place a very large army into the ulity in Great Britain and with deri- field, she had to replace the Turkish sion and ridicule in Germany, where and Roumanian auxiliaries whom she the article was widely quoted, but had lost by German soldiers. The new time meanwhile has proved their German Army Bill increases the numcorrectness. The fact that Germany ber of recruits by 63,000 men per year, has neglected both her diplomatic and as nineteen yearly levies are liable position on the Continent of Europe to be called out in case of war, the and her army became clear to all when Bill proposes to increase the the German Government suddenly de- strength of the German Army by manded a truly gigantic increase of about one million men. the army, an increase which in the Modern wars are made by armed course of the next five years will cost nations. As the population statistics approximately 100,000,0001. The Ger- determine the ultimate strength of man Army Bill was prefaced by an armies, Germany's enormous and unerposé des motifs, in which the Govern precedented military effort will probment stated:

ably not suffice to re-establish her In consequence of the events which military predominance in Europe. are taking place in the Balkans the Germany Þas 67,000,000 inhabitants, balance of power in Europe has been and her population grows by 800,000 shifted. If a war should be forced

per year; Austria-Hungary has 50,000,upon Germany, she would have to pro

000 inhabitants, and her population tect, possibly against several enemies,

increases by 400,000 per year; Italy frontiers which are extended, and

has 35,000,000 inhabitants, and her which are devoid of natural protection. In consequence of the political changes

population grows by 200,000 per year. which have taken place it is to-day

While the States of the Triple Alliance more than ever our supreme duty to

have together 152,000,000 inhabitants, make our military defence as strong as

who increased by 1,400,000 per year, our population allows.

Russia alone has 170,000,000 inhab. The strength of our army has not itants who increase by approximately altogether kept pace with the growth 3,000,000 per year. On the basis of the of our population. A considerable por

population and natural increase the tion of the people who are able to

position of the Triple Alliance is less bear arms remains at present un

favorable than that of the Francotrained. Universal service has proved

Russian Alliance, and it is, of course, the best basis of Germany's strength. Only if universal service remains a

still less favorable than is that of the reality can we look to the future with Triple Entente. If we look at the firm confidence and the feeling that position of the Triple Alliance from the we have done our duty. The main military point of view we find that the idea of the Bill is the development of Russian Army is now in every respect universal service in proportion with

in a far better condition than it was our population.

before the outbreak of the RussoNations, like individuals, have to Japanese War. The armies of France pay for their mistakes. As Germany and Russia combined are approxihas lost the support of Turkey, and mately as strong as those of the Triple

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