Figure II-2. Accumulation of Slips in Test and Development Schedule Unless these trends are reversed, an IOC in FY05 appears unlikely. Figure II-2 illustrates the trend of development schedule slips and estimates schedules slipping at a rate of 20 months every three years. If these trends persist and efforts by the NMD Joint Program Office (JPO) to “buy back” schedule are unsuccessful, the first flight test with a production representative interceptor (IFT-13), scheduled for the first quarter of FY03, would slip about two years. 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY III. PROGRAM OVERVIEW A. SYSTEM DESCRIPTION The National Missile Defense (NMD) system has the mission of defending the entire United States against strategic ballistic missile attacks. The initial deployment capability, C1, is intended to defend against deliberate attacks by adversaries from states of concern and, to a lesser extent, limited accidental or unauthorized launches from the established nuclear-capable states. The C1 system is designed to meet the User's threshold effectiveness requirements, in terms of attack size and sophistication of countermeasures, and is the architecture under review at the Deployment Readiness Review, Key NMD system design concepts include: The NMD system is sized for limited attacks. The NMD system employs the hit-to-kill intercept concept; ie., the threat is destroyed by force of impact. The NMD C1 system design will be constrained to a single weapons site. The NMD C1 system design is a ground-based system. Space-based sensors provide warning and cueing only. The NMD program is expected to evolve from C1 in two phases to meet the system's objective effectiveness requirements. This will be accomplished by enhancing sensors and weapons, adding a constellation of low-orbit satellites (SBIRS-low), and increasing the number of radars, interceptors, and interceptor fields. The objective NMD system is referred to as Capability 3. The NMD system is an integrated collection of "elements" that perform surveillance, detection, tracking, discrimination, and battle management functions, including engagement planning, intercept, and kill assessment. As depicted in Figure III1, the NMD C1 system consists of the following elements: Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3) Weapon system: Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs) and support subsystems 10 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Space-based sensors: Defense Support Program (DSP) and high-orbit Space Ground-based sensors: Five Upgraded Early Warning Radars (UEWRs) and 1. Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications The BMC3 integrates and processes data from space-based and ground-based sensors to perform engagement planning, situation awareness, and decision support functions while maintaining a "human-in-control." It consists of the following principal subsystems: Battle Management, Command, and Control (BMC2) performs command and control, engagement planning, tasking, and situational awareness. NMD Communications Network provides the communication links between the individual NMD elements and external systems. 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY In Flight Interceptor Communications System (IFICS) enables the BMC3 to communicate with the interceptor while in flight. For example, target data are uplinked to the kill vehicle through the IFICS to reduce and correct errors in targeting estimates. 2. Weapon System The Weapon System consists of Ground Based Interceptors and supporting subsystems. The interceptor is a silo-based, three-stage missile with a separating Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) that engages the threat above the atmosphere, well in excess of 100 kilometers. The kill vehicle employs visible and infrared sensors to acquire and track the target, performs onboard discrimination to select the reentry vehicle (RV) from associated objects, and fires divert thrusters to steer the vehicle to achieve a direct hit on the RV. 3. Space-Based Sensors The NMD system relies on the constellation of early warning satellites to detect launches of enemy missiles and to track them during their boost phases. The NMD C1 space component will consist of a combination of existing DSP satellites as well as SBIRS High satellites yet to be deployed. The Mission Control Station is the ground component of the SBIRS system that consolidates satellite detection data, generates Quick Alert and Boost Phase Reports, and forwards them to the BMC3. From these reports, the BMC3 generates Sensor Task Plans that provide cues to the ground based radars for acquisition of the target complex. The SBIRS system is being developed as an Air Force program. 4. Ground-Based Sensors The NMD C1 architecture includes six ground-based radars: five Upgraded Early Warning Radars and a single X-Band Radar that is currently under development. The UEWRs are upgraded versions of the Air Force's existing UHF phased-array ITW/AA surveillance radars. They can operate autonomously or search for threat objects in response to cueing from the BMC3. The UEWRs are expected to track all threat objects and attempt to classify them as "threatening" or "non-threatening." Such information is provided to the BMC3 for supporting the generation of Weapon Task 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Plans and In Flight Target Updates. If the intercept occurs within their coverage volume, the UEWRs will collect intercept data to support a kill assessment made by the BMC3. The X-band, phased-array radar based in Shemya, Alaska, provides radar coverage for a subset of threats aimed at Alaska, Hawaii, and the Western United States. In most cases, it cannot participate in engagements that threaten the Eastern Seaboard. Responding to cueing from the BMC3, it acquires threat objects, tracks them with great accuracy, and attempts to discriminate the RV from decoys and associated objects. Such information is provided to the BMC3 for supporting the engagement. The XBR will also collect kill assessment data, if the intercept occurs within its coverage volume. B. NMD ACQUISITION STRATEGY - PHASED DEPLOYMENT In April 1996, the DoD comprehensive review of its theater and national ballistic missile defense programs shifted NMD from a Technology Readiness Program (19931996) to a Major Defense Acquisition Program (Acquisition Category 1D), known as the NMD "3+3” Deployment Readiness Program. This program called for three years of intensive development work, followed by a deployment decision in FY00 that could result in an IOC three years later (FY03). In January 1999, the Secretary of Defense redirected and modified the NMD program to implement a phased deployment approach, based upon technical progress, leading to an operational system as early as the end of FY05. The first decision point, the DRR, is to decide on the following issues: a recommendation to the Secretary of Defense whether to commit to deployment of the C1 system, selection of sites for all the elements, award of site-construction contracts, long haul communications, and approval of long lead radar hardware. The January 1999 restructuring of the NMD program also added two other decision points (phased approach). An FY01 DAB will consider the building and/or upgrading of required ground-based radar systems XBR and UEWR and the integration of command and control software into the Cheyenne Mountain Operations Center. 11 A Weapon Task Plan consists of pre-launch instructions that are used by the weapon system for generating a flyout solution that places the EKV on an intercept path with the target RV. Such a plan is required before an interceptor is committed/launched to engage the threat. 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY |