If you wish, in the research and development area, this is the progress that is being attained.

Chairman ELLENDER. You are making the point that communism is far ahead of capitalism.

Dr. FOSTER. No, sir.

Chairman ELLENDER. That is what you are doing. That is what it will lead us to.

Dr. FOSTER. Let me explain, Mr. Chairman, using your analogy. We were two or three times ahead of them, in a sense, in 1955. By around 1962 or 1961 we were perhaps as far ahead and around 1971 it looks even-steven nationally.

RUSSIAN UTILIZATION OF GERMAN AND U.S. KNOWLEDGE

Chairman ELLENDER. In formulating these charts, have you taken into consideration the knowledge that they obtained, let us say, from Germany and from us, where we progressed more rapidly in our development in a given field, and what they did was to take up from where we were. In other words, we had already done the work and they copied it.

Dr. FOSTER. That is a big factor. The one in front has to clear the road; he has the hard job to do that is correct. It is more efficient for them to catch up. You have a very good point.

Chairman ELLENDER. That is exactly what I found out.

Dr. FOSTER. I completely agree with you.

Senator YOUNG. They also can make their people sacrifice and live on less than we wish to do.

Dr. FOSTER. That is true, but we can't do much about that.

U.S. 1968 DECISION TO REDUCE RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, TEST AND EVALUATION

Senator COTTON. You say the two countries have practically reached the point where we are even. From this point on, they will have to delve into original research. It is only guesswork but won't that slow them up in comparison with us?

Dr. FOSTER. Yes; it would, Senator, there is no argument about the fact that it would slow them up. However, let me make a point about this chart. You see, while we were each going at the same incremental increase per year over the last 15 years, the only major change in interest occurred in 1968. That change was a result of the unilateral decision by the United States to reduce its national research, development, test and evaluation work. Now the primary ingredients of that reduction are two: No. 1, a decision to reduce the effort in our space program, from a peak of about $5 billion a year to a current level of about $3 billion a year. That is a $2-billion reduction. Second, a reduction in our effort in military research and development. Those two, almost by themselves, make up for the difference.

I should point out that the difference between the two efforts in the countries was remaining about constant, which means that as the effort grows larger the fractional difference becomes less. However, the primary concern has to do with this decision around 1968. This is the national picture.

Let me now go to the details within these two curves.

RUSSIAN MANPOWER COMMITMENTS TO PROGRAM

Chairman ELLENDER. Before you go to that, will you tell us what is the amount, in your opinion, that is spent exclusively for military research?

Dr. FOSTER. I am going to estimate that for you, sir, right now.

First of all, let me show you that the manpower situation is what the Soviets have committed themselves to in order to provide the manpower to operate that national research and development program. (Slide presentation)

GRADUATE ENGINEERS AND SCIENTISTS

Dr. FOSTER. Here we have the number of engineers that they have been graduating and propose to graduate annually in future years. These are divided into two types-engineering graduates and those in the natural sciences. You see that this shows generally a high rate of growth over the last 10 years and then projected for the future. They seem to be largely in the engineering area. In Russia an engineer is in a very special position.

COMPARISION WITH U.S. GRADUATE ENGINEERS

Chairman ELLENDER. How does a Russian engineer compare with ours?

Dr. FOSTER. These numbers were provided by the National Science Foundation and by the Department of Commerce, and also by our own Defense Intelligence Agency. The comparison was made by the National Science Foundation; they find that the two are roughly equivalent. Their best are certainly as good as our very best. They also have some that, we feel might be, if anything, less capable than ours.

Chairman ELLENDER. I have had considerable experience through going to a number of their colleges. Do you know that a foreman in a textile mill is known as an engineer?

Dr. FOSTER. Yes, I understand that, sir.

Chairman ELLENDER. Do you know that a driller in an oil field is an engineer?

Dr. FOSTER. Yes, I understand.

Chairman ELLENDER. If you take such differences into consideration, how in the world can you compare their graduates with ours? We have people with 7th and 8th grade educations who are the best drillers that you can find in my State. In Russia they are engineers.

Dr. FOSTER. I understand. We are talking about two different things. I am talking about the qualifications of the people they graduate from their colleges and universities.

Chairman ELLENDER. Your chart indicates, as I understand it, the number.

Dr. FOSTER. Mr. Chairman, what I am talking about is the number of people graduating from colleges and universities and the curriculum that they study and have to pass. I am saying those are roughly equivalent in the two countries, as compared by professors of this country who went to the Soviet Union and talked with the professors there, comparing curricula.

Chairman ELLENDER. Take medicine, for instance. How would you compare medicine in the two countries? Seventy-five percent of the doctors in Russia are female. I would say that when they graduate from college, many of them don't know much more than graduate nurses. Yet in Russia they would get an M.D. We would not compare persons who do that with our doctors, would we?

Dr. FOSTER. Of course, sir; we have cases in this country where nurses have gone back to school and become doctors.

Chairman ELLENDER. I know they have gone back. In this case, they are doctors when they come out of school but they are trained nurses in actuality.

Dr. FOSTER. This evaluation is outside my professional area.

Chairman ELLENDER. I have visited the colleges, talked to the professors there, and interviewed many of the students.

Dr. FOSTER. I have talked with some of their scientists, but that does not help me with this problem. Here, I am relying on a study by the National Academy of Sciences in which people went over and talked to their counterparts in the Soviet Union to get an estimate of what kind of courses are being taught, what the qualifications are for graduates, and what the numbers are. This is what the indication was.

UNITED STATES AND RUSSIAN TOTAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Now let me show you what the total national pool of scientists and engineers looks like in each country.

(Slide presentation.)