engagement in which we might possibly be beaten. What would be the result, if to-morrow a great naval battle were fought in which every one of our brave ships would drag one of the enemy's, perhaps a few more, with her to the bottom of the sea? Then we should be minus a fleet, and England would be free to attack our coast. And that no town would be spared, you may be certain after what we have seen in our Colonies. Our whole coast, from Emden to Memel, would be threatened. Even attempts to invade our country might be made. Our fleet must protect us under all circumstances, and must only risk an engagement when it can be certain of victory. Unconquered on water and on land, so must we stand to gain for our Fatherland an honourable peace, at which England's world-domination must be shattered. God grant us victory!' 6 This, I think, is a fair example of the kind of soothing potions which the German nation is being given to swallow. Let me add that the medicine is taken by 95 per cent. of the population without even so much as a wry face. I have been asked many times since my return from Germany, if I thought the German fleet would come out. My answer can be found in Von Koester's speech, where he says: We must not allow ourselves to be inveigled into an engagement in which we might possibly be beaten.' I think, in fact I am almost convinced, that the German fleet is never going to risk a battle in which its existence will be at stake. In other words, they are not likely to venture far from their base. That conviction has been gained from many conversations, enquiries, arguments, and observations among wellqualified Germans. The charge made by Von Koester against England, viz. that she desires to be present at the peace negotiations with a fleet intact, applies to Germany. J. M. DE BEAUFORT. Art. 3.-THE FUTURE OF INDIAN AGRICULTURE. 1. Reports of the Indian Famine Commissions. Spottiswoode, 1880, 1901. 2. Report on the Improvement of Indian Agriculture. By Dr J. A. Voelcker. Spottiswoode, 1892. 3. Report on Agricultural Banks. By F. A. Nicholson. Madras: Government Press, 1895. 4. People's Banks for Northern India. By H. Dupernex, Calcutta Thacker, 1900. 5. Report of the Indian Irrigation Commission. Spottiswoode, 1903. 6. Proceedings of the Board of Agriculture in India. Calcutta Government Press, 1905. 7. Report of the Committee on Co-operation in India. Simla Government Press, 1915. : 8. Agriculture in India. Government Press, 1915. And other works. By J. MacKenna. Calcutta: THIS article is concerned with the livelihood of about 200,000,000 human beings. They live and work under almost every conceivable variety of conditions; in climates where the rainfall may be five inches or fifty feet, and where the records of temperature and humidity may fluctuate between equally divergent limits; on bare and shifting sands, on rich alluvial plains, on the thin soils of rocky plateaux, or the deep margins of the river beds. They produce most of the staples alike of tropical and temperate regions; and their material and moral equipment varies as widely as the fruits which their efforts secure. The question may well be asked whether any general statements can be made regarding the operations of men who work under such varying conditions; and the objection is so far valid that no such statement can be made which is not subject to exceptions and qualifications of greater or less importance. But, allowance being made for these, it is possible to set forth a certain number of general propositions which are applicable to the greater part of the country, and which, taken in the aggregate and considered along with the peculiar social and intellectual environment, serve to distinguish the Indian system from the agriculture of Vol. 226.—No. 449. 2 A most other portions of the world. The most important of these propositions may be stated as follows. In the first place, the outlook of the Indian peasant is fundamentally vegetarian. He does not, as a rule, eat flesh of any sort; and the production for the market of meat and other animal substances, including even milk and butter, is mainly in the hands of special classes of the people and does not enter into the business of the ordinary agriculturist. Secondly, capitalist farming is an exception; the bulk of the land is occupied in small holdings, cultivated largely by the labour of the peasant and his family. Thirdly, agriculture is even now largely in the self-supporting stage; a supply of food for the household is still the peasant's primary object, although the importance of raising produce for sale is steadily increasing. Fourthly, the climate of the greater part of the country renders artificial irrigation either necessary or desirable, if not for the ordinary staples, at least for the success of the more costly and remunerative crops. Fifthly, the agricultural industry has been subject to frequent periods of entire disorganisation consequent on the failure of the seasonal rains, and resulting, in the past, not only in the terrible mortality which formerly marked the progress of a famine but also in the destruction, more or less complete, of the meagre capital employed by the peasant. As the result of this and other causes, agricultural capital has been scarce and dear throughout the centuries which are to any extent open to our observation. Lastly, and on a somewhat different plane, the industry grew up in conditions where iron was a rare and costly product a fact of which the results are seen not merely in the nature of the indigenous appliances but in the difficulty experienced by the peasants in maintaining the new implements now placed in their hands. These and other conditions, operating through a period which must be counted by centuries, though its limits cannot be precisely defined, have combined to * Some writers speak in glowing terms of the indigenous iron industry as it existed before it was killed by imports from Europe. It is true that iron was manufactured of good quality and in considerable amount, but to the peasant its cost was prohibitive. In the late 16th century, from 20 to 40 lbs of wheat were required to purchase a pound of iron nails; at present prices a pound of nails is worth about two pounds of wheat. |