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there is a very deep substratum of truth. Properly handled, Welsh agriculture would be thriving to-day in spite of bad years and heavy lambing losses due to the hard winter of 1927-28, but it is well known that the great majority of farmers are feeling the pinch, and that many of them find it very hard to make two ends meet, even at the price of continual labour and the cheerful abandonment of the most of life's amenities. Yet they are producing what the country wants, the consumer is paying a very considerable price, and it only needs a fair proportion of that price to reach the farmer for him to enjoy a measure of prosperity, because his skill and his hard work do yield very definite results and his trouble comes only because they are intercepted. To be sure the farmer-owner is in a bad plight because in most cases he bought his land during the boom time as his brother did across the border, and he borrowed money to complete either from the banks or from his friends, and the interest on money that can never come back to him makes his trouble harder than ever. But although this is true of many farmers, there are still more who remain tenants and are under very good landlords, because with the few exceptions in the case of commercial magnates who have bought estates and run them on the strictest business lines without any regard for the troubles of other people, the landlords of Wales have an excellent reputation. They cannot do much in the way of new buildings or even of repairs to old ones, but whatever is within their gift they give and they are spoken of with respect, even with affection, by their tenants. The worst said of the older school is that, in a country where smallholders abound, they preserve too many pheasants and foxes. But the men who hold under landlords who are too exacting in these regards, as in Montgomeryshire, for example, could make money even to-day if they would learn the beginnings of salesmanship, and if they would give a real support to the various enthusiasts who have tried more or less successfully to inculcate the lessons of co-operation. Strange that although men can see it in working where they buy, they are unable to realise what it can do for them when they sell, and although the signs of the times suggest improving conditions, Vol. 251.-No. 498.

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there is every reason to fear that the old generation of backwoodsmen must die out leaving little behind them save debts before the lessons come home.

To what extent is Wales suffering in its agriculture from existing conditions that far-seeing policy might remedy? It is extremely hard to say, because the small farmer of the hills and the man with the family holding continue to struggle on against adversity with a combination of endurance and a reticence that is astonishing. They will bend to breaking point and nobody will know their troubles, unless it is the auctioneer or the county instructor or some friend who talks of their business to sympathisers. Their one anxiety is to keep going, and no price appears too much to pay for the realisation of this ambition.

It is hard to say that there is any real prosperity in agricultural Wales save in isolated instances. The only county in which the farmer and his wife seem to lead a life that embraces a reasonable amount of leisure is Montgomeryshire, and here, with half a dozen noble rivers providing rich alluvial soil crops are far easier to raise than they are elsewhere. There is more shelter, a milder winter, and a larger opportunity. For many years Montgomeryshire has been turning like the rest of Wales from the plough, but now the swing of the pen. dulum has come, and it is likely that the arable area is on the increase. One looks in vain for similar improvement elsewhere. Mam Cymru, The Mother of Wales,' as Anglesey was called, because, Giraldus Cambrensis said, she grew enough wheat for the population of the Principality, has grassed her ploughlands; elsewhere there is no serious attempt at arable farming, partly because it is against the instinct of the people, partly on account of the price of labour and the uncertainty of the markets.

If we learn from what Wales has to teach, it is quite clear that the flight from the plough will lead no man from Egypt to the Land of Goshen. Until marketing methods are improved his increase will be tithed again and again by those who do not share his risks or his expenses; he will labour to benefit the shareholders of combines and of trusts, the gangs that raid the markets and those who stand between producer and consumer.

The Welshman has nothing to learn in the matter of

stock raising, he knows all that is necessary to know about milk production, but he cannot make money, and the English farmer who deserts the plough will find himself in simpler plight unless he will combine to secure a fair return for his labours. This combination cannot be avoided, it is only a matter of time and of a little time at that. The whole question is whether it will come before the middle-aged man of old-fashioned methods has been driven from the land.

In Wales, as in England, the most promising feature of the agricultural situation is the development of the educational side. There are twelve whole-time organisers in Wales, including Monmouthshire, with staffs well able to carry on special work such as horticulture, dairying, poultry keeping, and the care of livestock. The University of Wales, through Cardiff, Aberystwyth and Bangor, is carrying on agricultural research work of the very first importance, and it is significant that the College's mixed farm at Bangor (Aber), comes very near to paying its way, though it employs labour on a generous scale and grows a certain quantity of corn.

Throughout the Principality the young men and women are learning new methods, are thinking new thoughts. Colleges and county schools bring them into touch with one another and make them realise that the farmer's problem is not something that relates only to his own fields but is equally urgent on the fields of his neighbour. In all directions the old barriers are breaking down, better methods are superseding those that have threatened to become obsolete. It is more than likely that within another ten years a new era of agricultural prosperity will have dawned for Wales, and not for Wales alone. The writer, after travelling through England and through the Principality in the past fifteen months and covering close upon six thousand miles, remains convinced that pessimism has been overdone, and that the sickness from which agriculture is suffering is neither deadly nor incurable.

S. L. BENSUSAN.

Art. 9.-BRITISH TRADE IN SOUTH AMERICA.

1. South America. By W. H. Koebel. 2nd Ed. Fisher Unwin, 1923.

2. Le Péron économique. By Paul Walle. E. Guilmoto, 1908.

3. The Bulletin of the Pan-American Union. New York: Published monthly.

4. South America and the War. By F. A. Kirkpatrick. Cambridge University Press, 1918.

BEFORE the War our South American trade was a source of pride to us. About the year 1908 our imports into Argentina were equal to those of Germany, the United States, and Belgium combined; and the same was the case in Chile. In Brazil the position was almost as favourable. Peru was near the United States, more under their influence, and her mines were largely exploited by American capital; but even there the exports from Great Britain usually stood at a higher figure than those from the United States. The activities of Germany were incessant; and in South America, as everywhere else, she was rapidly increasing her share of trade; but the commercial ascendancy of Great Britain appeared impregnable, fortified as it was by abundant capital, which, with other countries at least, is a potent attraction to fresh trade.

Since the War, however, the position has been reversed; the United States come first in the import trade; and, though we are a better second than our rival was in the pre-War days, the change is decisive, and the want of expansion in this most promising field accounts for a part of our chronic unemployment. To diagnose this discouraging state of affairs, it will be necessary, first, to give a brief historical sketch of our trade in South America, showing what circumstances and aptitudes on our part led to our success, and what causes have contributed to our decline; thus leading to a consideration of the means which, it may be hoped, will effect a recovery.

From the discovery of the New World onwards the other nations had envied Spain the boundless wealth

which she obtained from Mexico and Peru, and, of course, in conformity with the commercial maxims of those days, the trade there was strictly a Spanish monopoly. By the time of the Treaty of Utrecht, in 1713, Great Britain was strong enough to make an inroad into that close and jealously guarded preserve, and the famous Asiento gave her traders the right of supplying negro slaves to the Spanish Colonies and also of sending yearly a ship of 500 tons burden to trade with Spanish America. It may be added that the complacency with which our historians, poets, and other literary artists wrote about the devildoms' of Spain and, inferentially, our superior humanity and enlightenment, does not survive the test of historical investigation; but this is a large question which cannot be

discussed here.

Our subject is trade, and we have to note that 1713 is a landmark; for many illicit traders followed in the wake of the legitimate vessel, and the Spanish monopoly was gradually sapped. Spain resisted stoutly this opposition, and the war of Jenkins's Ear is tolerably familiar to us, by name at least; but the strong man was no longer strong enough to guard his goods, and a stronger than he entered in and spoiled his house. The process lasted a full century; and by about 1825, Spain had lost nine-tenths of her Colonial possessions, not to her rivals but from internal decay-the Colonies had become independent. This was beneficial to Great Britain. That wise statesman, Castlereagh, pursued a judicious course, encouraging the struggling Colonies and at the same time preserving a friendly attitude towards monarchical Spain. His remonstrances with the Spanish King, his timely recognition of the new Republics, and the valuable unofficial aid given by private adventurers and Peninsular veterans, engendered a friendly feeling for England in South America which has remained unimpaired to this day. Thus Latin America was prepared to trade on favourable terms with us.

Having been disappointed in the European marketthe Continent being impoverished by the interminable Napoleonic Wars-our merchants were anxiously looking for new fields to exploit, and began to push South American trade. Accordingly, there was great activity;