REPORT ON THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY'S
PREWAR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS ON IRAQ

2. The 2002 NIE on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass

Destruction

12

Machines and Machine Tools

119

3. Iraq's Efforts to Re-Establish and Enhance Its Cadre of Weapons

Personnel as well as Activities at Several Suspect Nuclear Sites . . . 120

a. The Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission is Expanding the

Infrastructure - Research Laboratories, Production

Facilities, and Procurement Networks - to Produce

Nuclear Weapons

b. Many of Iraq's Nuclear Scientists Recently Have Been

Reassigned to the IAEC ....

c. Renewed Regular Contact Between Saddam and the IAEC,

as Well as Enhanced Security, Suggests the IAEC is Again

the Focal Point of Saddam's Nuclear Program

121

.. 121

122

d. Activity at Several Suspect Nuclear Sites

124

C. Niger

125

D. Explaining Uncertainties

E. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis on Reconstitution Prior to Publication

of the NIE

126

126

F. Analysis of Iraq's Currently Accurate, Full and Complete Disclosure

G. Nuclear Conclusions..

. 128

129

IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ANALYSIS OF IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL

WEAPONS PROGRAM

A. Background

....

B. Baghdad Has Transportable Facilities for Producing Bacterial and Toxin

BW Agents

1. Other Sources

2. CURVE BALL

3.

4. INC Source

5.

161

6. Intelligence Community Mind Set Concerning Mobile BW

Programs

161

C. Baghdad Has Been Able to Renovate and Expand its Fixed Dual-Use BW

Agent Production Facilities

1. Amiriyah Serum and Vaccine Institute

2. Habbaniyah I Castor Oil Plant

E. In the Absence of UN Inspectors, Iraq Probably Has Intensified and Expanded

Research and Development in Support of Iraq's BW Program. Baghdad

Probably Has Developed Genetically Engineered BW Agents

175

176

177

1. Research Activity

2. Reported BW Testing Near Qadisiyah Reservoir

F. We Assess That Baghdad Also Has Increased the Effectiveness of its BW

Arsenal by Mastering the Ability to Produce Dried Agent

G. Iraq's Capability to Manufacture Equipment and Materials... and to Procure

Other Necessary, Dual-use Materials... Makes Large-scale BW Agent

Production Easily Attainable

1. Foreign Procurement

2. Indigenous Iraqi Efforts

H. The Nature and Amounts of Iraq's Stored BW Material Remain Unresolved by

UNSCOM Accounting

I. We Judge That We Are Seeing Only a Portion of Iraq's WMD Efforts, Owing

to Baghdad's Vigorous Denial and Deception Efforts

J. Explaining Uncertainties..

K. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis of Iraq's Biological Weapons Program Prior

to Publication of the NIE

182

183

184

185

187

L. Biological Conclusions

V. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ANALYSIS OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL

WEAPONS (CW) PROGRAM..

195

A. Background....

195

B. Baghdad Has Chemical Weapons

199

C. We Judge That Iraq Is Expanding its Chemical Industry Primarily to

Support Chemical Weapons (CW) Production

202

D. We Assess That Baghdad Has Begun Renewed Production of Mustard, Sarin,

GF (Cyclosarin), and VX

..204