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suggesting that at the time of the report in April 2001, Iraq's atomic energy personnel had not begun reconstituting the nuclear program.

d. Activity at Several Suspect Nuclear Sites

(U) Several intelligence reports support the conclusion in the NIE that scientists had been consolidated into establishments previously associated with the nuclear program and that these facilities retained equipment that could be used in reconstituting a nuclear program at some point. The reports show, however, that the consolidation took place before 1998. This appears to be continuing activity indicative of plans to reconstitute Iraq's nuclear program at some point, but not new activity that would indicate recent or impending nuclear reconstitution.

(U) In addition to the scientific activity, intelligence reports support the conclusion that there was construction activity at al-Tahadi, a research and engineering facility engaged in a variety of high-voltage and magnetics work, but it is unclear that al-Tahadi was linked to nuclear work. Intelligence reports showed that several former scientists from Iraq's pre-Gulf War EMIS uranium enrichment program were working at al-Tahadi. There is no information to suggest they were currently engaged in nuclear work, however.

The IC provided the Committee with two intelligence reports indicating that Iraq was trying to procure a permanent magnet production line during the mid-1999 to March 2001 time frame.

that construction of a high-bay building was completed

at al-Tahadi by November 2000 which could have been intended to house permanent magnet production facility. Reporting, however, indicated that the magnet procurements were likely affiliated with Iraq's missile program and one report specifically mentioned that the magnets were intended for the al Rashid directorate, which is involved in solid-propellent missile design and production.

There was no intelligence provided to the Committee to suggest that

Iraq had obtained the permanent magnet production capability.

(U) In an interview with the NIO and CIA analysts, Committee staff asked if there was any additional information to support the assessment that "There was activity at suspect nuclear sites." The CIA analyst told Committee staff that the only activity was continuing work of personnel at these suspect facilities, but no new activity was taking place.

C. Niger

(U) Although not listed as a reason the IC believed Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program, the NIE did discuss Iraqi attempts to acquire uranium from Africa. The NIE said:

Iraq has about 550 metric tons of yellowcake and low-enriched uranium at
Tuwaitha, which is inspected annually by the IAEA. Iraq also began vigorously
trying to procure uranium ore and yellowcake; acquiring either would shorten the
time Baghdad needs to produce nuclear weapons.

A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001, Niger
planned to send several tons of "pure uranium" (probably yellowcake) to
Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out
arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of
yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement.

Reports indicate Iraq has also sought uranium ore from Somalia and
possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

We cannot confirm whether Iraq succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or
yellowcake from these sources.

The Committee has examined the Niger uranium issue in depth and reported the information and findings on the issue in a separate section of this report. The Committee notes, however, that there were a number of intelligence reports which indicated Iraq was attempting to procure uranium from several countries in Africa, including Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia. At the time the NIE was written the forged foreign language documents were not available to the IC, but there was intelligence reporting that indicated Iraq may have approached Niger either to procure uranium or for another unidentified purpose. The Committee did not find that the information showed Iraq was "vigorously trying to procure uranium” as indicated in the NIE, but it did indicate that Iraq may have been trying to acquire uranium. See the Niger section of this report for a detailed explanation of the treatment of the Niger uranium information by the IC prior to, during, and after the NIE process.

D. Explaining Uncertainties

(U) The NIE provided a "tone box" that listed the IC's "confidence levels for selected key judgements in this estimate." The NIE's key judgements were broken down into three categories of high, moderate and low confidence. Assessments related to Iraq's nuclear capabilities listed under the "High Confidence" heading were:

"Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding, its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions."

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(U) The only key judgment noted under the "Moderate Confidence" heading related to Iraq's nuclear capabilities said:

"Iraq does not have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one but is likely to have a weapon by 2007 to 2009. (See INR alternative view, page 84)"

(U) There were no assessments of Iraq's nuclear capabilities listed under the "Low Confidence" heading.

E. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis on Reconstitution Prior to Publication of the NIE

(U) The assessment that Iraq had begun reconstituting its nuclear program was a new Community assessment in 2002, but individual IC agencies began to change their assessments about the nuclear program more gradually, beginning in 2001, as new intelligence reports began to come into the IC.

As mentioned previously, the CIA began assessing that the aluminum tubes "have little use other than for a uranium enrichment program" as early as April 10, 2001 (SEIB 1-083CHX) – almost immediately after the detailed intelligence reports on Iraq's attempts to procure 60,000 aluminum tubes started coming to the IC. The April 2001 assessment also suggested that the tubes, and purchases of other dual use items, such as magnets and specialized balancing equipment, could revive Iraq's nuclear program. The CIA produced about a dozen more assessments of the aluminum tubes and their applicability in Iraq's nuclear program over the course of the next year.

(U) It is clear from the CIA's finished intelligence that the procurement of aluminum tubes and other dual use equipment was key to the CIA shifting its position on reconstitution of Iraq's nuclear program. The CIA wrote in January 2002, that "Procurement activities detected in the past year are consistent with Iraq attempting to jump-start a clandestine uranium enrichment program to produce fissile material needed to make a nuclear weapon, potentially by late this decade." (SPWR011102-02) On March 12, 2002, the CIA published a Senior Executive Memorandum which assessed that "Iraq currently may be trying to reconstitute its gas centrifuge enrichment program" and on the same day the CIA said “Iraq could develop enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon by mid-to-late decade." (SPWR031202-07) In August 2002, the CIA published a paper titled Iraq: Expanding WMD Capabilities Pose Growing Threat in which it assessed that "Iraq's procurement of nuclear-related equipment and materials indicates it has begun reconstituting its uranium enrichment gas centrifuge program to produce fissile material for a nuclear device, a process that could be completed by late this decade." The same paper later noted, "Iraq's persistent interest in high-strength aluminum tubes indicates Baghdad has renewed an indigenous centrifuge uranium enrichment program." The CIA's nuclear analysts also told Committee staff that the aluminum tube procurement was the principal part of the agency's assessment that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program.

(U) On April 11, 2001, almost immediately after the reports on Iraq's procurement efforts came to the IC, the DOE assessed that the aluminum tubes were likely not intended for Iraq's nuclear program. The DOE noted that "While the gas centrifuge application cannot be ruled out, we assess that the procurement activity more likely supports a different application, such as conventional ordnance production." The DOE continued to assess that the tubes were intended for the Nasser 81 rocket program in numerous assessments throughout the next year.

(U) Despite the DOE's assessment that the tubes were not intended for Iraq's nuclear program, DOE analysts did note other intelligence in their assessments that led them to believe Iraq may be reconstituting its nuclear program. On August 17, 2001, in an intelligence paper (TIN000064) the DOE assessed that “Iraq is engaged in activities, such as establishing a permanent magnet production capability, that could be preliminary steps intended, at least in part to support a gas centrifuge program restart. However, we cannot determine from information now available whether or when Iraq may have begun program reconstitution in earnest or if it intends to do so in the immediate future." On July 22, 2002, the DOE assessed that Iraq's efforts to procure magnets, Saddam's meetings with Iraq's nuclear scientists, and possible Iraqi attempts to acquire uranium from Niger suggest "that Saddam Hussein is seeking to reconstitute Iraq's nuclear weapons program."

(U) The DIA first assessed that the aluminum tubes could be part of Iraq's nuclear program on August 2, 2001. The background paper outlined the CIA's assessment that the tubes were suitable for an uranium enrichment program and also explained the DOE's assessment that the tube's thickness, length, and anodized finish made it more likely they were for other uses. The paper indicated that "DIA analysts found the CIA presentation to be very compelling.” The DIA wrote little else on the procurements of aluminum tubes or other dual use items until it published a large defense intelligence assessment on "Iraq's Reemerging Nuclear Weapon Program" in September 2002. This assessment became the basis for most of the nuclear section of the October 2002 NIE on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction. The DIA paper used the term "revitalized" rather than "reconstituted" to refer to Iraq's nuclear efforts saying "Iraq revitalized its nuclear weapon efforts after the departure of UNSCOM and IAEA inspectors in December 1998."

(U) INR did not publish intelligence papers on Iraq's procurement of aluminum tubes or papers indicating its position on nuclear reconstitution until after publication of the NIE. A draft of an in-depth analysis paper on the aluminum tubes issue was provided to the NIC staff prior to the NIE, so the NIC would be aware of INR's position. The finished paper was published on October 9, 2002.

F. Analysis of Iraq's Currently Accurate, Full and Complete Disclosure

(U) On December 17, 2002, CIA analysts produced a review of Iraq's WMD declaration to the UN titled, U.S. Analysis of Iraq's Declaration, 7 December 2002. On December 30, 2002, the points from the paper were worked into talking points for the National Intelligence Officer for Science and Technology titled, Talking Points on US Analysis of Iraq's Declaration. The two assessments reviewed Iraq's "Currently Accurate, Full and Complete Disclosure" to the UN of its WMD programs and made only two points regarding the nuclear program. The assessments said the declaration, "fails to acknowledge or explain procurement of high specification aluminum tubes we believe suitable for use in a gas centrifuge uranium effort. Fails to acknowledge efforts to procure uranium from Niger, as noted in the U.K. Dossier." The titles of both of these assessments said, "U.S. analysis," suggesting that they represented more than just CIA's position. Yet, known dissenting views from INR and the DOE regarding the purpose

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The aluminum tube section of the NIE was taken from a September 2002 CIA assessment, Iraq's Hunt for Aluminum Tubes: Evidence of a Renewed Uranium Enrichment Program.

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