activity could have been consistent with legitimate pubic health related activity. A CIA Iraq analyst also told Committee staff that in the late 1990's and in the 2000 to 2002 period Iraq did have "some huge vaccination campaigns," particularly against polio and foot and mouth disease (FMD). A CIA BW analyst also told Committee staff that she was not aware of any effort in the IC to analyze the impact of those mass vaccination campaigns on dual-use facilities like the Amiriyah Serum and Vaccine Institute.

The NIE noted that the Habbaniyah I Castor Oil Plant, which was damaged during Operation Desert Fox in 1998 because it was assessed to be involved in the production of the biotoxin ricin, was rebuilt by early 2000. The NIE said, "The facility continues to extract oil from the castor beans, allegedly for use in brake fluid production.

The NIE stated that while the extraction of castor oil is a legitimate activity, the bean mash that is left over contains the BW agent ricin. The IC assessed that ricin was probably not being extracted at the castor oil plant but said concurrent activity at the nearby main production building, "suggests that toxin extraction may be taking place in the main production building."

The NIE also pointed to

of the Dawrah Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccine Production Plant in support of the assessment that Iraq may be rebuilding dual-use fixed facilities for BW production. Iraq used Dawrah to produce BW agent before UNSCOM rendered the facility useless for BW work in 1996 by filling ductwork with a cement and foam mixture and destroying equipment used for BW agent production. Other research and production equipment at Dawrah deemed by UNSCOM to be legitimate was left in place. The NIE noted that Iraq probably renovated the facility after UNSCOM's work, but said "We are unable to determine whether BW agent research or production has resumed." Iraq claimed in 1999 that the facility was going to be renovated to produce foot and mouth disease vaccine.

In a September 2001 report,

renovated beginning in 1999

assessed that the facility had been

report said it was unclear whether the possible restart of

As noted in the NIE, the the plant was related to Iraq's BW program or was for legitimate vaccine production.

A CIA Iraq analyst

told Committee staff that Iraq may have had a legitimate need for foot and mouth disease (FMD) vaccine because for years the U.S. had vetoed Iraqi requests under the UN Oil for Food program for FMD vaccines based on suspicion that these materials were intended for BW purposes. The U.S. Government (USG) and IC later learned that Iraq had in fact had an FMD outbreak, prompting the USG to start approving Iraqi imports of FMD vaccinations in 1999. The USG, as a member of the UN Iraq Sanctions Committee, rejected a proposal from the Iraqis and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization to rehabilitate Dawrah because the USG believed that was able to import as many FMD vaccines as it needed.

The information that Iraq may have had legitimate public heath reasons to restart

the Darwah plant was not included in the NIE.

D. We Assess That Iraq Has Some BW Agent and Maintains the Capability to Produce a Variety of BW Agents

(U) The NIE stated that "we assess that Iraq has some BW agent and maintains the capability to produce B. anthracis, botulinim toxin, aflatoxin, Clostridium perfringerns (gas gangrene) and ricin toxin." The NIE also noted that Iraq "may be able to produce a number of other incapacitating and lethal agents that it has researched over the years" and assessed that "Chances are even that smallpox is part of Baghdad's offensive BW program."

1. Smallpox

The 2002 NIE stated in the key judgments that "Chances are even that smallpox is part of Iraq's offensive BW program." The body of the 2002 NIE expanded on this

assessment:

"Various intelligence reports and

indicate that Iraq probably has retained unauthorized stocks of Variola major virus, the causative agent of smallpox. Baghdad reportedly kept smallpox virus samples from its 1971-1972 outbreak,

We assess that the

chances are even that smallpox is part of Baghdad's offensive BW program, although credible evidence is limited."

(U) The NIO and Deputy NIO for Science and Technology (S&T) told Committee staff that the statement "although credible evidence is limited" was not included in the key judgments because the issue was adequately addressed in the body of the NIE, and because of space limitations in the key judgments, they decided not to reiterate the point. The Deputy NIO added that she expected the readers of the NIE to read both the key judgments as well as the body of the document. When asked by Committee staff if a policymaker who read only the NIE 's smallpox key judgment, and not the body of the NIE's BW section, would have been misled about the uncertainties behind that assessment, an INR BW analyst responded, "Absolutely, particularly on such a sensitive topic as smallpox. And it's important to remember that people who were reading this at the time when we were having a national debate on whether people should be immunized and what the threat was from al-Qa'ida on smallpox, it was a much more charged atmosphere than the one we are in right now."

The assessment "Chances are even that smallpox is part of Baghdad's offensive BW program" was based primarily on intelligence

that Iraq

probably had retained unauthorized stocks of Variola major virus, the causative agent of smallpox. The assessment was also based on reporting that kept smallpox virus samples from a 1971-1972 outbreak, as well as reporting that suggested Iraq had the capability to work with the virus and fragmentary reports that were looking into such work.

The report does not indicate that any of Iraq's work on smallpox was applied to an offensive biological program.