A 1993 HUMINT report describing the use of the code word "project 600" for BW
activity at Iraq's Abu Ghurayb facility before the 1991 Gulf War.

A 1997 HUMINT report described the use of the codename "313" with the Djerf al Nadaf facility. While Djerf al Nadaf may have a BW connection, the use of a code for this facility is not necessarily specific to BW.

A report from the HUMINT source code named CURVE BALL who provided most of the IC's understanding of the mobile production capability states that letters were used to describe agents produced in mobile plants.

A 2000 HUMINT report described the use of letter-number codes to refer to BW agents. UNSCOM's final report notes that Iraq referred to BW agents with letter code designation in its declarations to the U.N.

A 2000 HUMINT report that discussed research allegedly underway as of 1997 at a facility run by the Iraqi Intelligence Service in Abu Ghurayb, near Baghdad, focused on how to introduce a number of BW agents into soft drinks and "other mediums.” The report stated that the facility's reports referred to BW agents by letter-number codes.

(U) The intelligence provided to the Committee describes the use of codewords to "compartmentalize BW program elements" but no intelligence reports were provided that described the use of codewords to "conceal acquisition of BW-related equipment, and impair Western attempts to monitor Iraqi technology acquisition." While code words are a denial and deception measure, no intelligence was provided to the Committee that showed an Iraqi "national-level BW D&D program" existed in 2002, as stated in the NIE.

J. Explaining Uncertainties

(U) The NIE provided a "tone box" that listed the IC's "confidence levels for selected key judgments in this estimate." The NIE's key judgments are broken down into three categories of high, moderate and low confidence. Assessments related to Iraq's BW capabilities listed under the "High Confidence" heading are:

“Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding, its chemical, biological, nuclear and
missile
programs contrary to UN resolutions."

"We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs."

"Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles."

(U) There were no assessments of Iraq's BW capabilities listed under the "Moderate Confidence" or "Low Confidence" headings. Nowhere in this section, or anywhere else in the NIE, is the possibility explicitly raised that the majority or all of the dual-use biotechnology issues discussed in the NIE's BW section could represent legitimate public health activity.

K. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis of Iraq's Biological Weapons Program Prior to
Publication of the NIE

(U) Analysis from individual intelligence agencies on Iraq's biological weapons program was consistent between agencies and largely consistent with the NIE and other IC products discussed earlier in this report. The following are examples of assessments from the DIA and the CIA. INR told the Committee that it did not publish any specific intelligence papers on Iraq's BW program.

(U) In October 1997, the DIA published a Defense Intelligence Assessment, Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs: Progress, Problems, and Potential Vulnerabilities which stated that "Iraq may have successfully concealed some biological agents. It retains much of its biotechnical infrastructure and is positioned to weaponize biological warfare (BW) agents at pre-Gulf War levels in 2 years or less after sanctions are lifted." The paper noted that Iraq's “. .. dual-use-type facilities give Iraq the capability to produce biological agents and plausible deniability of a biological weapons program," but "no active BW facilities are currently identified...."

(U) In January 2002, the DIA published a Defense Intelligence Assessment, Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction and Theater Ballistic Missile Programs: Post-11 September, which stated "Some aspects of Iraq's biological warfare (BW) program are active, and most elements are probably larger and more advanced than they were in the pre-Gulf War program. Iraq is capable of producing and weaponizing a moderate spectrum of BW agents for a moderate range of delivery systems. UN sanctions imposed after the Gulf War did little to prevent Saddam from equipping and operating the program." The paper also notes "Iraq has gone to great lengths

to conceal its BW production, reportedly using mobile trailers" and that "several BW-associated facilities have recently undergone renovation and construction. These facilities may have provided additional capabilities and support to the BW infrastructure."

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DIA published a Defense Contingency Product, Iraq - Key WMD Facilities An Operational Support Study in September 2002 which said, referring to bulk biological agentfilled munitions that Iraq claimed to have destroyed in 1991, “. . . Iraq never provided credible evidence to support this claim. The location, nature, and condition of this [BW] stockpile, and the seed stocks and growth media for biological agent production are unknown." The paper stated that

The paper also noted that "Iraq

is assessed to possess biological agent stockpiles that may be weaponized and ready for use. The size of those stockpiles is uncertain and is subject to debate. The nature, size and condition of those stockpiles are also unknown."

(U) A September 2002 DIA Information Paper with the subject line, Iraqi Interest in Smallpox as a Biological Warfare (BW) Agent, states that the "DIA assesses it is possible that Iraq possesses samples of the smallpox virus. However, whether Iraq is actually producing smallpox agent in quantities or where it could be produced is unknown."

(U) The CIA published a paper in August 1996 titled Iraq's Remaining WMD Capabilities, stated "Baghdad has provided no compelling evidence to buttress its claim that all its BW agents and munitions were destroyed in the spring of 1991. Even if Iraq's claims were true, its BW expertise could enable it to rapidly resurrect a small-scale BW program.”

(U) In October 2002, CIA published a paper titled Saddam's Timelines for Using WMD, which stated that "Based on Iraqi declarations and a variety of intelligence reporting, we judge Iraq has some lethal and incapacitating biological agents and is currently using fixed facilities to quickly produce and weaponize a variety of such agents, including Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), botulinum toxin, alflatoxin, Clostridium perfringens (gas gangrene), and ricin toxin. Iraq could also use its mobile facilities to produce some bacterial agents."

L. Biological Conclusions

(U) Conclusion 48. The assessment in the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that, "[W]e judge that all key aspects - research & development, production, and weaponization - of Iraq's offensive biological weapons program are active and that most elements are larger and more advanced than they were before the Gulf War" is not supported by the intelligence provided to the Committee.

(U) Conclusion 49. The statement in the key judgments of the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that "Baghdad has biological weapons" overstated what was known about Iraq's biological weapons holdings. The NIE did not explain the uncertainties underlying this statement.

(U) Conclusion 50. The statement in the National Intelligence Estimate that "Baghdad has mobile transportable facilities for producing bacterial and toxin biological weapons agents," overstated what the intelligence reporting suggested about an Iraqi mobile biological weapons effort and did not accurately convey to readers the uncertainties behind the source reporting.