B. IC Analysis on the Iraqi Threat (U) Assessing the threat level from Iraq was a problem for the IC in the years after 1991. Analysts were certain that Saddam was capable of threatening and destabilizing the region, as he had done when he attacked Iran and invaded Kuwait. They also believed he retained components of his WMD programs. For example, he used chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds in the late 1980s, and he fired Scuds toward his neighbors when he invaded Kuwait. After 1991, though, analysts believed that Iraq's conventional forces were less capable in all readiness categories-to include logistics, manning and training.58 (U) The Committee reviewed approximately 400 analytical documents - spanning 1991 until early 2003 - which focused on various dimensions of Iraq's conventional military threat to the region. There was no controversy among IC analysts concerning the degraded status of Iraq's military forces, concerning the facts surrounding Iraqi actions against internal opposition groups, nor concerning the Iraqi regime's resistance to no-fly/no-drive zone restrictions. (U) Taken as a complete body of documents, the IC showed that by 2003 it had thoroughly assessed Iraq as a conventional threat to regional stability and security. For example, the IC produced analyses that concentrated on Saddam's efforts to reestablish control of his military and on his steps to stabilize Iraq's internal security environment. Analysts also focused on lingering Iraqi threats to Kuwait, Saddam Hussein's efforts to undermine UN sanctions, his aggression toward the Kurds, and interactions with Iran, Turkey and other neighbors. Analysis of the Iraqi threat was strongest in the areas of conventional military capabilities (also known as "order of battle”) and Iraq's military or security actions inside the country. Both of these issues were measurable, that is susceptible to technical collection methods On the other hand, the IC was not confident about its analysis concerning Saddam's intentions for use of force or about the possible intentions of regional governments in their relations with Iraq. Both of these areas relied heavily on HUMINT, which the IC claimed was not reliable enough or sufficient in quantity for accurate assessments. Over this 12-year period, analysts made a clear distinction 58 (U) The size and operational capabilities of Iraq's conventional military forces sharply declined after the 1991 defeat, and this trend continued all the way through 2002. Still, by 2003 Iraq's conventional forces were the largest in the region. between military capabilities and regime intentions. This distinction will be highlighted in the Committee's review of analysis documents later in this section. C. Agency Level Papers and Current Intelligence Products (U) Analysts produced hundreds of documents on the Iraqi threat to regional stability and security both at the agency level and at the IC's inter-agency level. The key agency level producers of analysis used for this review were the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). Based on the documents provided to the Committee by the IC, analysis of Iraq's threat to regional stability and security at the individual agency level did not show signs of disagreement among analysts about the extent of Saddam Hussein's threat after 1991. The analysis at different agencies, such as the CIA and the DIA, was based heavily on monitoring of the actions and the composition of Iraq's conventional forces. When Iraqi forces deployed from their barracks, they were monitored. When they exchanged artillery fire with Iranian forces or fired anti-aircraft missiles at Coalition aircraft in the No-Fly Zones, the IC was able to monitor what happened. The CIA and the DIA's Defense HUMINT Service also received HUMINT reporting that corroborated or added to intelligence monitoring by technical means. (U) From 1991 through 2003, the majority of all analysis that was concentrated on the Iraqi threat was either in the category of agency level analysis documents or in the category of shorter Defense Department current intelligence reports, which typically focused on breaking events. Overall, there was a significant amount of overlap in the topics that IC agencies analyzed. For example: (U) The CIA often focused on WMD and the evolving political-military situation inside Iraq and in the region; 59 (U) The DIA often focused on WMD, military capabilities and breaking events, such as violations of the no-fly zones or events related to the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Shia in the south; and, (U) The INR often focused on the evolving political-military situation and its impact on D. Key Analysis Topics in Agency Level Documents (U) The topics in the below table represent the major analytical themes that Committee staff summarized from the IC's agency level analysis covering 1991 until 2003. WMD capabilities History of aggression & use of WMD in the region Conventional capabilities Provocative actions inside Iraq, against regional states and ethnic groups This complex topic appeared often in agency level analysis products and was the focus of coordinated IC-level assessments. These topics received little analytical emphasis over the entire period of 1991 through 2003, but still appeared to be an important consideration in threat assessment for all IC analysts. This received significant analytical attention Analysts focused heavily on issues that (U) As late as 2002, the IC had not produced a coordinated NIE - as it had done with the October 2002 NIE on Iraqi WMD - that summarized the disparate pieces of agency level analysis and made a comprehensive judgment on the level and immediacy of the conventional Iraqi threat. Committee staff had to piece together a picture of how the IC understood the Iraqi threat as depicted in assessments and analyses over the 12-year period. (U) The IC's understanding of the Iraqi threat to regional stability and security evolved from the end of the first Gulf War in 1991 until early 2003, but the assessments came to the same general conclusions that Saddam Hussein: was unpredictable and aggressive; retained the capability to strike militarily in the region; and, would probably not choose to use force against neighbors as long as U.S. and Coalition forces were in the region. The body of assessments showed that Iraqi military capabilities had steadily degraded following defeat in the first Gulf War in 1991. Analysts also believed those capabilities would continue to erode as long as economic sanctions remained in place. (U) To illustrate the evolution of thought among IC analysts, Committee staff elected to organize assessments chronologically in an attempt to reconstruct the IC's understanding of the Iraqi threat. Interagency treatment of the Iraqi threat produced approximately 40 coordinated community assessments and NIEs focused narrowly on various topics related to regional stability and security. For example, assessments covered - among many other topics - conventional military capabilities, repression of opposition groups and threatening deployments of Iraqi ground forces. Analysts judged that Iraq's conventional military capabilities were significantly diminished after its 1991 expulsion from Kuwait, although they were uncertain about Saddam Hussein's willingness to use his remaining forces against neighbors and Coalition forces. (U) The Committee grouped IC assessments for organizational convenience and ease of review and reading. But, the grouped documents coincide with significant events related to Iraq. For example: (U) 1991-1994: This period coincides with the end of the first Gulf War and Saddam Hussein's deployment toward Kuwait in October 1994; (U) 1995-1998: This period covers Iraq's incursion into Kurdish regions in the north, and the departure of UN weapons inspectors; (U) 1999-2003: This period includes assessments produced after Desert Fox Coalition strike in December 1998 and ends in early 2003 prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom. (U) To characterize how the IC assessed the broad range of topics related to the Iraqi threat to regional stability and security, the Committee will present key text extracts from a body of IC-level assessments produced from 1991 - 2003. 1. Summary of Assessments 1991 - 1994 (U) This period includes six selected assessments concerning the beginnings of Coalition efforts to contain the defeated Iraq. Analysts believed the critical variables in the assessment of Iraq's threat to the region included the presence of U.S. forces, the capabilities and political will of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the reconstitution of Iraq's military logistics, improvements in the morale and readiness of the Iraqi military, and the absence of economic sanctions. The body of analysis indicates that Iraq would remain effectively constrained as long as measures to control Saddam Hussein remained in place. Analysts also considered scenarios that could confront the U.S. and regional players. They concluded that Iraq would probably attempt to rebuild its military force to prewar levels if allowed. (U) Analysts also concluded that Iraq's ability to project power was severely diminished by Desert Storm and that UN sanctions impeded Iraq's efforts to reconstitute this capability and prevented him from importing weapons. Analysts assessed that Iraq could conduct only limited |