The CIA WINPAC analyst, requested in September 2002 that they perform an analysis of the tubes. The contractors told Committee staff that the CIA provided them with a stack of intelligence data and analysis on the Iraqi aluminum tube procurements on September 16, 2002. All of the information was provided by the CIA and the contractors told Committee staff that they did not discuss the data with any agencies other than the CIA. They were provided with NGIC's analysis of the tubes, but said they were not briefed by nor did they ask to speak to NGIC or DOE analysts. One contractor said, "This was internal to the agency." One of the contractors said before joining he had been given a tutorial on 81-mm rockets by a DOE analyst, but said that the conversation was "pretty meaningless to me because the rest of the issue had not bubbled up at that point." A DOE analyst told Committee staff that he also discussed the issue with the contractor in May of 2001. The contractor produced a paper on September 17, 2002, one day after receiving the information, that said the team concluded, "that the tubes are consistent with design requirements of gas centrifuge rotors, but due to the high-strength material and excessively tight tolerances, the tubes seem inconsistent with design requirements of rocket motor casings." The report referenced NGIC's analysis that the material and quantity of the tubes were inconsistent with rocket motor applications. The report said that while the dimensions "possibly" were suitable for rockets, the tolerances were too stringent and the pressure test requirements were too high. A September 13, 2002 New York Times article which discussed the IC debate about the aluminum tubes, noted that an administration official said, "... the best technical experts and nuclear scientists at laboratories like Oak Ridge supported the CIA assessments." The contractors told Committee staff, however, that before September 16, 2002, they had not seen any of the intelligence data on the Iraqi tubes. DOE officials, including the Director of the Oak Ridge Field Intelligence Element, told Committee staff that the vast majority of scientists and nuclear experts at the DOE and the National Labs did not agree with the CIA's analysis. (U) Although the IC had been debating this issue for almost a year and a half, the DCI testified at a Committee hearing that he was unaware of the debate until mid-September of 2002. a. The National Intelligence Estimate (U) In September 2002, Members of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) requested that the IC produce an NIE on Iraq's WMD programs. Because of the time constraints required to finish the estimate, the NIO for Strategic and Nuclear Programs used existing Community papers to build the text for the various sections. The National Intelligence Council staff drew the portion of the nuclear section on nuclear reconstitution largely from an August 2002 CIA assessment and a September 2002 DIA assessment, Iraq's Reemerging Nuclear Weapons Programs. The majority analysis of the aluminum tubes in the NIE was drawn from the CIA's September intelligence assessment, Iraq's Hunt for Aluminum Tubes: Evidence of a Renewed Uranium Enrichment Program. (U) In late September 2002, when the NIE drafts had been completed and circulated to analysts to review, the NIO for Strategic and Nuclear Programs brought IC analysts together for a coordination meeting on the NIE draft so that the analysts could raise and discuss pertinent issues about the draft text and refine and complete the draft. At the meeting on September 25, 2002, both the CIA and the DIA supported the NIE assessment that the aluminum tubes were intended for Iraq's nuclear program and were evidence that Iraq was starting to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program. The DOE's Office of Intelligence and State Department's INR believed that the tubes were intended for a conventional rocket program and probably not a nuclear use. The DOE did agree, however, that for other reasons addressed later in this report, that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program. Both the DOE and INR included extensive text boxes in the NIE outlining their analysis of the tubes. The NGIC, the IC agency responsible for conventional ground weapons systems, did not attend the NIE coordination meeting, although the agency's analysis was cited in the NIE in support of the assessment that the tubes were highly unlikely to be intended for a rocket program. NGIC was represented at the coordination meeting by DIA. The IC assessment that the tubes were intended for Iraq's nuclear weapons program centered on several factors outlined in the NIE and outlined previously in the CIA's analysis of the tubes: (1) Saddam Hussein had a personal interest in the procurement of the aluminum tubes, (2) The composition, dimensions, and extremely tight manufacturing tolerances of the tubes far exceed the requirements for non nuclear applications but make them suitable for use as rotors in gas centrifuges. (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Iraqi agents agreed to pay up to Iraq has insisted that the tubes be shipped through such intermediary countries as Procurement agents have shown unusual persistence in seeking numerous foreign sources for the tubes, often breaking with Iraq's traditionally cautious approach to potential vendors. was An aluminum tube built to the Iraqi specifications for the tubes seized 15 are similar to those used in the Zippe and The dimensions of the tubes Iraq performed internal pressure tests to induce a hoop-stress level similar to that obtained by an operating rotor. (U) The NIE included discussion of some of these assessments in the main text and contained an annex with a more extensive discussion of the assessments and extensive dissenting opinions from both the DOE and INR. The following section outlines the intelligence and assessments provided by the intelligence agencies on the aluminum tubes. 15 (1) Saddam Hussein Had a Personal Interest in the Procurement of the Aluminum Tubes, Suggesting That the Acquisition Efforts Had a High National Priority The intelligence provided to the Committee in support of the conclusion that Saddam Hussein had a personal interest in the tubes was limited to one CIA human intelligence (HUMINT) report. The source of the report was a "[foreign] government service, from a "The report provided very little detail, saying only that "As of late August 2002, Iraqi President Saddam Husayn was closely following the purchase and analysis of 114,000 7075-T6 aluminum tubes by the Iraqi Organization for Military Industrialization (OMI)." The IC told the Committee that they had no other reporting to show Saddam Hussein had a personal interest in the tubes, but had information that the Iraqi deputy prime minister was also involved in the tube acquisition effort. It is not clear from either of these reports that the high-level interest from Saddam Hussein and his deputy prime minister suggests the tubes were intended for Iraq's nuclear program. The report on Saddam Hussein's interest in the tubes provides few details which would help corroborate the information or indicate why he was interested in the procurement. The report on the deputy prime minister also does not indicate why he is interested in the shipment. The deputy prime minister is also the minister of the Organization of Military Industrialization, suggesting that his interest in the tubes may be consistent with his ministerial responsibilities. Furthermore, because both reported instances of high-level interest in the tubes occurred after a previous shipment of the tubes had been seized in 2001 and the IAEA had become involved in the matter, it is possible that both Saddam Hussein and the deputy prime minister were interested in the shipments because of concerns that they too might be confiscated. In any case, it is not clear why these shipments were a high priority for Iraqi officials. (2) The Composition, Dimensions, and Extremely Tight Manufacturing Tolerances of the Tubes Far Exceed the Requirements for non Nuclear Applications but Make Them Suitable for Use as Rotors in Gas Centrifuges (U) All intelligence agencies agreed that the composition, dimensions, and tight manufacturing tolerances of the aluminum tubes made them capable of being used in a centrifuge program if the tubes were modified. The DOE assessed, however, that technical aspects of the tubes and their handling appeared inconsistent with a gas centrifuge application, and INR agreed with the DOE's analysis. The CIA and DIA were the all-source analysis agencies which supported the NIE assessment that the composition of the tubes, dimensions, and tight manufacturing tolerances far exceeded the requirements for conventional rocket applications. The NIE noted that Iraq consistently requested tubes composed of 7075-T6 aluminum, although the material "... is considerably more expensive than other more readily available materials." The NIE also noted that "Materials or tubes meeting conventional rocket requirements could be acquired at much lower prices or be produced indigenously." A separate box in the NIE contained NGIC analysis that the tubes were "highly unlikely to be intended for rocket motor cases," and that the "wall thickness and overall weight would make these particular tubes poor choices for rocket motor bodies." The NGIC analysis compared the Iraqi tubes to a U.S. rocket system that uses the same type of aluminum, 7075-T6, and found that the tubes Iraq was seeking were much more precisely manufactured than the U.S. system or any other U.S. or Russian system of which the NGIC was aware. The tone box said "most agencies agree with NGIC, the Department of Defense (DOD) experts on conventional military systems, that tubes with the specifications - materials and tolerances like those seized are highly unlikely to be used for rocket motor cases." - (U) The NIE's assessment that the composition and dimension of the tubes exceeded the requirements for conventional rocket applications is contrary to information obtained by the Committee indicating that the composition and dimensions of the Iraqi tubes were consistent with rockets manufactured in several countries, and, in fact, match exactly the tubes Iraq had imported years earlier for use in its rocket program which it had declared to the UN. (U) Committee staff interviewed DOD design engineers who work on U.S. rocket systems, specifically the Mark-66 rocket, who said that the assessments in the NIE that 7075-T6 aluminum "is considerably more expensive than other more readily available materials” and that "materials or tubes meeting conventional rocket requirements could be acquired at much lower prices" are "not correct at all." They said that high-strength aluminum is "around the world the material of choice for low cost rocket systems, because it's widely available and can be easily manufactured," and has a high strength to weight ratio. They added that aluminum is "one of the cheapest materials [from which] to make rocket motor cases. Everything else is higher cost to manufacture, like steels." |