REPORT ON THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY'S PREWAR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS ON IRAQ

2. The 2002 NIE on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass

Destruction

12

2. Procurement Attempts for Magnets, High-Speed Balancing

Machines and Machine Tools

119

3. Iraq's Efforts to Re-Establish and Enhance Its Cadre of Weapons

Personnel as well as Activities at Several Suspect Nuclear Sites... 120

a. The Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission is Expanding the

Infrastructure - Research Laboratories, Production

Facilities, and Procurement Networks – to Produce

Nuclear Weapons

...

-

b. Many of Iraq's Nuclear Scientists Recently Have Been

Reassigned to the IAEC ...

121

121

D. Explaining Uncertainties

E. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis on Reconstitution Prior to Publication

of the NIE

F. Analysis of Iraq's Currently Accurate, Full and Complete Disclosure

G. Nuclear Conclusions ..

IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ANALYSIS OF IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL

WEAPONS PROGRAM

...

A. Background ...

B. Baghdad Has Transportable Facilities for Producing Bacterial and Toxin

6. Intelligence Community Mind Set Concerning Mobile BW

Programs.

C. Baghdad Has Been Able to Renovate and Expand its Fixed Dual-Use BW

Agent Production Facilities

1. Amiriyah Serum and Vaccine Institute

2. Habbaniyah I Castor Oil Plant

3. Dawrah Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccine Production Plant.

D. We Assess That Iraq Has Some BW Agent and Maintains the Capability

to Produce a Variety of BW Agents

165

166

166

.. 170

E. In the Absence of UN Inspectors, Iraq Probably Has Intensified and Expanded

Research and Development in Support of Iraq's BW Program. Baghdad

Probably Has Developed Genetically Engineered BW Agents

1. Research Activity

2. Reported BW Testing Near Qadisiyah Reservoir

.. 175

176

177

F. We Assess That Baghdad Also Has Increased the Effectiveness of its BW

Arsenal by Mastering the Ability to Produce Dried Agent

178

G. Iraq's Capability to Manufacture Equipment and Materials ... and to Procure

Other Necessary, Dual-use Materials... Makes Large-scale BW Agent

Production Easily Attainable

179

1. Foreign Procurement

179

2. Indigenous Iraqi Efforts

181

H. The Nature and Amounts of Iraq's Stored BW Material Remain Unresolved by

UNSCOM Accounting

182

...

I. We Judge That We Are Seeing Only a Portion of Iraq's WMD Efforts, Owing

to Baghdad's Vigorous Denial and Deception Efforts

J. Explaining Uncertainties

K. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis of Iraq's Biological Weapons Program Prior

to Publication of the NIE..

L. Biological Conclusions

V. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ANALYSIS OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL

WEAPONS (CW) PROGRAM ..

.. 183

184

.. 185

187

C. We Judge That Iraq Is Expanding its Chemical Industry Primarily to

Support Chemical Weapons (CW) Production

D. We Assess That Baghdad Has Begun Renewed Production of Mustard, Sarin,

GF (Cyclosarin), and VX