codex, there was no Portuguese original of Part v to be found, and he had to translate this part from an early Italian version of it made by the Commendatore Diogo Cardeira. It now appears, from a note on the title-page to Part v, that'the Portuguese and French original has come to [Mr Irvine's] notice at the last moment; it does not appear in the Zanetti catalogue, but its present classification is No. 135, class vi.' In the expressive language of the sister island, this beats Banagher.' We thought we had come to the end of the game of hideand-seek when MSS. which had been lurking in four wellknown and well-catalogued libraries had, with infinite patience and precaution, been finally exhumed; but even Mr Irvine, it appears, had not quite escaped the fate of his predecessors in their search for the elusive manuscripts which have triumphantly fooled the historians of India for two centuries.

However, at the very last moment, the last of the fugitives made its reluctant appearance, and happily its bashfulness did not occasion any grave inconvenience, since it turns out that it offers only unimportant variants from the Italian version. Mr Irvine, we trust, may now rest assured that there is nothing more to be found; and of this, at least, we are very confident, that he has made the best possible use of the important Mss. which he has discovered and collated, and has brilliantly edited the most valuable contribution to our knowledge of the history and life of India, as seen by European witnesses, that has ever been published. We cannot conclude without referring to the portraits, which were specially copied for Manucci, from originals in the royal palace, by Mir Mohammed, an official of Shah Alam, and are reproduced from the volume in the Paris Bibliothèque Nationale, where they were brought with other loot from Venice by Napoleon in 1797. They add much to the interest and beauty of these volumes, which handsomely inaugurate the series of Indian texts issued under the auspices of the Royal Asiatic Society.

Art. 8.-THE ECONOMIC POSITION OF GERMANY.

1. Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich. Berlin : Puttkammer, 1909.

2. Deutschlands Stellung in der Weltwirtschaft. By Prof. Dr Paul Arndt. Leipzig: Teubner, 1908.

3. Die Finanzen der Grossmächte. By Dr Friedrich Zahn. Berlin: Heymanns, 1908.

4. Deutsches Volksvermögen. By Arnold Steinmann-Bucher. Berlin: Elsner, 1909.

5. Report on the Finances of the German Empire for the Year 1909. By Count de Salis, Councillor to His Majesty's Embassy at Berlin. London: Harrison, 1910. 6. Report on the Trade and Commerce of the Consular District of Frankfort for the Year April 1908 to April 1909. By Consul-General Sir Francis Oppenheimer. London: Harrison, 1909.

7. The Evolution of Modern Germany. By W. Harbutt Dawson. London: Unwin, 1908.

8. Modern Germany. By J. Ellis Barker. London : Smith, Elder, 1907.

THE material progress of Germany is one of the most notable features of the economic history of the world during the past forty years. The growth of German wealth and foreign trade since 1870 has a great significance for Europe generally and for this country in particular. It has enabled Germany to provide means for the maintenance of the most efficient and powerful army in the world; and within the past ten or twelve years it has encouraged her rulers to embark upon a policy of naval expansion which will in all probability place her in a position in a few years to challenge our supremacy upon the sea. The question, therefore, whether Germany will be able to continue to maintain her military and naval expenditure at the very high level of recent years without straining the financial resources of the Empire to breaking point is one of vital importance to this country; and from this point of view it is proposed to discuss in the following pages the economic position of the German Empire at the present time.

The growth of her population has been one of the

In

main causes of Germany's economic development. 1907, when the last census was taken, the total population was 61,720,529, as compared with 51,770,284 in June 1895, and 45,229,113 in June 1882. Between 1882 and 1895 the population increased at the rate of 14.45 per cent; but between 1895 and 1907 the rate of increase was augmented to 19.22 per cent., a ratio of increase which no other leading European State, with the exception of Russia, has approached. This rate of expansion will perhaps be better illustrated by the statement that between 1882 and 1895 the population increased at the average rate of 436,000 per annum, while between 1895 and 1907 the average rate of increase was 821,000 per annum. At the present time the population is increasing at the rate of nearly 1,000,000 per annum, and it is estimated that by the end of 1921 the inhabitants of Germany will number approximately 75,000,000. It is instructive to compare the changes in the relative position of Germany and the other great Powers in this respect since 1815.

• Or latest date for which the figures are available.

The comparative stagnation of the growth of population in France is one of the most noteworthy facts revealed by the figures contained in the above table. It will be observed also that the position of the United Kingdom is a declining one, and that Austria-Hungary too shows a relative decrease. The remarkable extent of the relative and actual growth of the population of Russia will be noted with satisfaction; and it is evidently to this country that Europe must look for the maintenance of

the equilibrium of power so far as it is capable of regulation by the increase of population.

In June 1907 a census was taken throughout Germany enquiring into all industries in which the population was engaged; and the following is a summary of the results obtained by a comparison of the figures contained in the three censuses of 1882, 1895, and 1907:

An examination of the returns reveals the fact that agriculture is still by far the most important occupation, although relatively it is losing its predominant position. In 1882 42.51 per cent. of the population were occupied in agriculture; at the census of 1895 the percentage had declined to 35 74; and at the census of 1907 it had further declined to 28.65 per cent. The retrogression was not only relative but absolute, and the actual number of the population engaged in agriculture fell from 18,500,000 in 1895 to 17,680,000 in 1907. On the other hand, the number of the population engaged in industry has risen from 20,250,000 to 26,380,000. Although the agricultural industry is a declining one its productivity appears to be increasing; and at a recent meeting of the Prussian Diet the Minister for Agriculture stated that the production of various kinds of corn had increased from 4,900,000 tons in 1880 to 10,700,000 tons in 1908, and that of potatoes during the same period from 19,000,000 tons to 46,000,000 tons.

One of the principal causes why the population of Germany has increased at such a rapid rate is the fact that emigration has since 1895 been on a very small scale. From 1881 to 1885 the annual average was 171,000 per annum; since then the number has declined materially, and during the year 1908 the number of German oversea emigrants was only 19,883.

The growth of population is one of the most formid

able problems with which the rulers of Germany have to deal. The necessity of finding fresh markets for her manufactures becomes more acute each year. With an annual addition of 1,000,000 to her population, and her transition from an agricultural to an industrial population, the dependence of Germany upon foreign trade is bound to become greater, and this consideration is destined to have a far-reaching effect upon AngloGerman relations during the next decade.

Although the economic forces which have contributed to the greatness of modern Germany were at work long before 1870, their manifestation, so far as the foreign trade of the Empire is concerned, appears to date from that year. It will be desirable, therefore, to review briefly the growth of Germany's imports and exports since 1870. It is estimated that in 1869 the imports of the German States amounted to 141,000,000l. and the exports to 129,000,000l. For some years after the creation of the Empire its foreign trade did not expand at a very rapid rate; but from 1889 onwards her progress has been remarkable, and its extent is shown in the following table:

Between 1889 and 1898 there was an increase of 27 per cent. in the value of the imports, and an increase of 18.8 per cent. in the value of the exports. But between 1898 and 1908 the increase of foreign trade was nearly twice as great as during the previous decade. The value of commodities imported during 1908 was 50.8 per cent. more than in 1898, while during the same period the exports increased to the extent of 70.7 per cent. There is reason to believe that this vast increase was due in some measure to the investment of German capital abroad in those years. Within the comparatively short period of twenty years, it will be observed, Germany has practically doubled her foreign trade.