increased return. Meanwhile, they are agreed that if it were not for the Government checks their situation would be nothing short of desperate.

GOOD BEGINNING, NOT FINAL GOAL

Thus reports of conditions in branches of the farming industry or regions where the Agricultural Adjustment Administration's programs have been placed in effect show that the benefits have been felt not only by the farmers but also have been communicated quickly to all branches of industry.

Nevertheless they are the record of a good beginning, not the attainment of final goal. The Administration still has much to do to overcome the consequences of a dozen years' impoverishment of agriculture. The task will not be completed until farmers' income has been restored and stabilized in all parts of the United States. The accomplishments of the Adjustment Administration's beginning efforts, as exemplified in these counties, are such as to add interest in the long-time aspects of the program, described in the next chapter, Planning for the Future.

CHAPTER 18

PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

Earlier in this report, in a chapter devoted to organization, reference was made to a new Program Planning Division, established within the Agricultural Adjustment Administration to deal with both the emergency and the long-time aspects of the agricultural problem. While the first task of the Administration has been to rescue agriculture from its acute distress, there is also the task of planning ahead. Far-reaching and fundamental production adjustment programs which already have been undertaken or are contemplated must be consolidated into permanent measures. This is necessary if suffering is to be avoided in the future and if economic security and well-being are to be brought permanently to the farming group.

USES SUGGESTED FOR CONTRACTED AREAS

Completion of the programs for the retirement from production of corn, wheat, cotton, and tobacco, under the terms of the allotmentcontrol contracts now authorized, will withdraw from commercial production large areas of land-probably more than 40,000,000 acres, the exact amount to depend upon various factors in recovery and the way in which the emergency adjustment programs are modified to meet changing conditions. The terms of the wheat, cotton, corn, and tobacco contracts, and subsequent regulations controlling the rented or contracted acres, direct the use of the rented acres to new seedings of soil-improving and erosion-preventing crops; permitting the land to lie idle; fallowing, where this practice is practical; controlling weeds; and planting forest trees. The use of rented acres for growing crops for direct consumption by the farm family or for feeding livestock contributing to the farm family is permitted in the case of the cotton and tobacco contracts, since these crops are to a substantial degree produced by share croppers and share renters who grow cotton and tobacco only. None of the contracts (cotton, wheat, tobacco, and corn and hog) permits the production on the contracted acreage of any crops for sale purposes or for use in feeding livestock produced for the market.

RECENT EXPERIENCE SHOWS NEED FOR PLANNING

The removal of forty-odd million acres of land from our total crop area raises puzzling questions as to regional and commodity competition, rotations, replacement crops, use of labor and the like. Adjustments in one enterprise necessitate adjustments in others. Putting cotton land into pasture, for example, may increase dairy or beef production, or diverting wheat to livestock feed may tend to increase the corn surplus. Similarly, downward adjustments of a particular crop in one region, if unaccompanied by similar adjustments in other and competing regions, would likewise tend to nullify the ends desired.

It is not enough for the Administration merely to contract with farmers to reduce the production of cotton, wheat, corn and hogs, or tobacco. It also must assist farmers in answering the questions which immediately confront them when they cut down these crops. Under the terms of the contracts, cooperators agree not to use the rented acres in growing crops for sale purposes or feed crops to be fed livestock or poultry produced for the market during the contract period. But what are they to do with the acres taken out of production? Practicable plans for replacement crops have been worked out for different regions, to answer this question.

Except where the contracts provide otherwise, it is reasonable to suppose that each farmer who agrees to reduce acreage of surplus crops will tend to take out the land in crops on his farm which is least productive. These lands cannot lie idle, however, without increasing the danger of damage through erosion or deterioration by being allowed to grow up in weeds. The replacement crop section of the Planning Division is concerned with this problem and plans and advises with farmers as to the kind of crops which may be grown to prevent erosion, promote soil-building, and conserve the long-time fertility of the soil, so as to help place agriculture permanently on a more secure economic footing.

PROBLEM HAS HUMAN PHASE

Readjustments occasioned by taking land out of cultivation are complicated still further by the human phase of the problem. When lands are taken out of cotton production in the South, for example, consideration must be given to the labor cultivating these lands. Provision must be made to see that the hired laborers and tenants do not bear the full brunt of the adjustment. The problem becomes even more difficult when considering the retirement of large acreages of submarginal land.

Problems of this kind run immediately into matters of much more long-time nature and of even greater importance to the future of the nation. Long-time planning of land use is a natural outgrowth of the Administration's emergency efforts. Such long-time planning of land utilization contrasts in several ways with the present emergency removal of tracts from many thousands of scattered farms. It differs as much from farm-by-farm acreage reduction as a well-balanced cotton economy in the South would differ from the hurried emergency program resulting in plowing under 10,000,000 acres of cotton.

The Administration's emergency measures result in taking out of surplus production small parcels of land on farms scattered all over the country, and in placing these plots in grass, soil-building, and lands from erosion-preventing crops. Long-time planning, on the other hand, means removal of large areas of submarginal land from production and the development of well-balanced systems of farming on the farms remaining in production. Lands retired from farming can be added to the public domain, to national forests, or designated for use for grazing, parks, game refuges, or for other recreational or cultural purposes. At the same time steps should be taken to end high-pressure promotion, either by the Federal Government or by other agencies, of settlement in areas and under conditions which cannot sustain a population on any but very low standard-of-living levels.

SUBMARGINAL LANDS TO BE PURCHASED

An allotment of $25,000,000 recently has been made to finance a beginning in withdrawing submarginal acreage. This will be done under immediate supervision of the Surplus Relief Corporation. Many people have felt that it is the so-called "submarginal" land which is largely responsible for our surplus problem, and that if only it were retired from cultivation the entire agricultural problem would be solved. Such land does add something to our surpluses, but the main reasons for retiring it from agricultural production are social. In both temporary and long-time measures advance must be made along the whole broad front of agriculture. Plans to assist one phase of the industry must be followed quickly by aid for the other branches. If the various emergency production efforts were not dove-tailed into each other they would result merely in transition of production from one crop to another without accomplishing any real help for the farming industry as a whole. This is the reason that under the direction of the Planning Division all of the contracts, whether they relate to cotton, wheat, tobacco, or other commodities, now are being drawn so that farmers agree in taking land out of one crop not merely to devote it to another surplus crop, but instead to devote the land to other purposes entirely, so as to raise the whole level of agricultural living and income.

MAY COMBINE PRODUCTION CONTROL ASSOCIATIONS

Likewise in regions where more than 1 crop is raised it has been indicated, as the Adjustment Administration plans developed, that important advantages would result if only 1 production control association could be organized for all farmers in each county. It now appears that in many respects 1 contract covering all the commodities, administered by 1 association, would prove a better instrument than several. Aside from the economies in administration, in avoidance of duplicated effort and overlapping, there would be the added value of centering attention upon the entire farm rather than upon lands devoted to any 1 or 2 crops. Adjustments should be interpreted in the light of their effect upon the whole farming business instead of upon one enterprise. As a part of a longtime program, the Administration sees in such associations a means whereby farmers may exert a continuing control over agricultural output.

The Administration also has sought for ways to give the farmers in certain regions guidance in devoting the rented acres to uses which will help in the family sustenance. In some areas this means finding supplemental land uses which will provide poultry, milk, and garden stuff to stock the family larder. This is intended to avoid some of the hardships which price or crop failures in the surplus single cash regions sometimes have meant for millions of farmers.

PERMANENT SCARCITY NOT SOUGHT

Still other considerations have led the Adjustment Administration to think of long-time planning-to think in terms of years. The Adjustment Administration has no thought of preparing for a permanent scarcity. On the contrary, agriculture looks forward to returning economic health throughout the Nation, and the influence it will

have upon both immediate and long-time prices of agricultural products. This perspective is of immense importance to producers of such products as dairying and beef cattle which rely primarily upon the domestic market. As time goes on and the present emergency surpluses are removed, the Administration's efforts will be shifted from drastic curtailment toward adjustment of production.

Likewise the possibility of some recovery in markets abroad is a factor in shaping programs for the surplus crops. Wheat, cotton, and hog farmers particularly have much to gain from a restoration of international trade.

The American population is still increasing, though at a declining rate. Agriculture's goal is the economical production of ample raw materials to supply the Nation's needs and to meet the demand for such products as can be sold abroad at remunerative prices, while at the same time avoiding surpluses that destroy the buying power of farm commodities and wreck farmers' standard of living. These and other factors show how important it is that the Adjustment Administration should resort to advance planning so its future programs may have flexibility and adaptability to meet and anticipate situations arising in the future.

MUST PLAN FOR AGRICULTURE AS A WHOLE

In making the transition from the emergency to the longer-time phases of the agricultural adjustment problem, we need to develop and have as our goal a comprehensive plan for agriculture as a whole. Such a plan should not be something that is rigid and fixed, but should be adaptable and flexible enough to meet changing industrial and international situations as they may arise. It also should provide for as much flexibility and freedom of action, on the part of the individual farmer, as is consistent with the maintenance of a proper balance between farm production and the need therefor.

In developing such a plan, first consideration will have to be given to the determination of the volume of production necessary to maintain our present or prospective population on a level of consumption for food and clothing at least equivalent to that enjoyed in relatively prosperous periods of the past. At the same time, this volume of agricultural production should be so distributed and controlled as to result in a standard of living for the farm population comparable to that enjoyed by other groups. Added to this production should be the probable volume of farm products which we shall be able to sell abroad at remunerative prices. Consideration must also be given to the desirability of continuing to accept some imports of agricultural products. Likewise in determining this production, account should be taken of trends in consumption now under way, of possible future changes in dietary habits, the effects of varying levels of business activity and consumer purchasing power, and also the effect of our natural economic policies upon international trade.

The problem involves next a consideration and appraisal of our agricultural resources, the distribution of our present agricultural production, and the relative adaptability of the different regions and areas to the production of the various crop and livestock products. This appraisal will also determine what lands, now used for agricultural production, had best be taken out of production; also those that should be devoted to less intensive uses than now engaged.