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table below this is as large as the total production of several of the

oil producing regions and is a significant fraction of the U.S. use.

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The SST could use all of the production from Alaska

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we will need to develop an oilfield the size of the Alaskan field just to

take care of the SST.

We have all been made aware of the potential envi

ronmental effects of the development of Alaskan oil.

Such effects must be

added to the more obvious effects of the direct introduction of pollutants.

We should also ask if this additional jump in the demand for oil will

Influence prices to the rest of the consumers.

There has been growing

evidence of a squeeze on oil supplies and prices in the past months.

The V.S. net proved reserves of oil are about 30 billion barrels (20)

and we use about 5 billion barrels per year.

Thus a six year supply is

available

but this time figure has decreased over the past years.

Global proved reserves are about 600 billion barrels and at present pro

duction rates of about 17 billion barrels per year the global supply can

last 35 years.

A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences (21 )

includes an estimate of 2000 billion barrels as the ultimate possible

global supply and with many other countries becoming industrialized so

that annual use increases one can see that the 35 year figure is not un

reasonable.

The plastics industry represents a further future claim on this ofl.

One could argue that the prudent global inhabitant would attempt to

use these relatively small reserves in the most efficient manner possible

57.01 - 7110

One measure of efficiency is the passenger miles obtained per gallon of

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The claims on the DOT budget this year for the most efficient rail

transit vehicles and systems already exceed the funds available (23).

Those claios have been made by the public

sector of the economy, local governments backed by their local citizens

and we see them now (wittingly or not) pursuing a policy of efficient use

of natural resources, prolongation of the age of oil, and minimization of

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the global pollution problem.

The private sector is asking that the funds

be spent at the other end of the scale with opposite results.

A recent analysis of the rate of use of resources and its relationship

with global pollution problems, population, capital Investment, and quality

of life is the work of Professor J. Forrester of M.I.T. presented to the

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based upon computer modelling to study the change with time of these five

factors.

There are clear interactions between the factors. Pollution

1

increases as rate of natural resource depletion increases and quality of

life goes down.

But nany interactions appear that are more subtle and

Professor Forrester shows that it is not always the obvious short-run

action that leads to optimum long run conditions. His work raises questions

about the desirability of across-the-board technological progress at the

present rate; an important hope for the future is that he finds that growth

conditions can give way to an equilibrium situation (constant population, high quality of life, and constant pollution). One of the prerequisites

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to a lower natural resource usage rate than the present.

I would respectfully suggest that all those concerned with political

decision-making consider his arguments and discuss them.

It is quite

possible for example that the current fund request, if channeled into

development of high technology land based transportation systems (refined

versions of BART for example) could ultimately improve the quality of

life for a large number of people, decrease rather than increase the rate

of usage of natural resources, and decrease the global pollution levels.

All this could be done without any change in the number of jobs involved.

Figure 1. Temperature maps at an altitude of about 77000ft, to show

regions (enclosed) where clouds are most likely to form 1f additional

moisture is present.

The favored regions vary in position from day to day.

Figure 2. Temperature cross-section for the period June-August to supple

ment that shown in my Scientific American article attached.

Shaded regions

denote areas of most probable additional cloud formation.

6. CONCLUDING COMMENTS

The stratosphere is a region in which there is a very delicate balance

between incoming solar radiation, chemical constituents and reactions,

infrared radiative processes and atmospheric motions.

It is much easier

to disturb this balance in the stratosphere than it is in the troposphere

and any disturbance persists for a much longer period of time.

The tro

posphere contains a natural self cleansing mechanism - rainfall

that

effectively removes much, but not all, of man's particulate injections (or gaseous Injections that evolve into particulates). There is no such

mechanism in the stratosphere and much of the removal of contamination

occurs by exchange of air between the stratosphere which is a very slow process (several years for the middle stratosphere). These facts should

be appreciated and fully understood before any deliberate long term changes

are made.

I oppose all technological developments which will ultimately introduce

quantities of trace materials directly into the stratosphere large enough

to influence the natural balance. To my knowledge the SST program is the

first of man's efforts which have involved sufficiently large amounts of

material so as to be comparable to the natural amounts involved and which

can be avoided by deliberate action now.

Carbon dioxide introduction is

1.

presently necessary for survival; SST development is not.

2.

The additional water vapor introduced by the SST can have at least

3.

three effects: it can change the radiative heating rates:

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the ozone distribution and thereby also alter the radiative heating rates

in the stratosphere as well as the ultraviolet radiation reaching the

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troposphere, and it can, produce additional cloudiness in regions that are

6.

already close to saturation.

7

I have studied at length the global ozone budget Including its seasonal

changes (25-27).

Large scale atmospheric motions contribute significantly

to the amount of ozone in the lower stratosphere - a finding borne out by

a comprehensive dynamical model of the atmosphere developed by the NOAA

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (28). Hydrogen compounds appear to play a significant role in the ozone balance and the projected SST development will add significantly to the stratospheric content of hydrogen com

pounds.

The feedback between potential stratospheric clouds and the

motion systems has not yet been studied.

It is desirable to apply such

comprehensive models to the "modified" stratosphere but we still have considerable way to go before the natural stratosphere is understood in

sufficient detail. Reactions involving the oxides of nitrogen seem impor

tant (11) and indeed nitric acid has been observed so it is not just water

vapor from the SST that is of concern. We should also bear in mind that although particles from the volcano had a large effect on the stratospheric

temperature it may have been gases that were actually injected with a

subsequent evolution of particles. The possibilities for such evolution

are very high in a stable region with a strong short wave solar flux.

I do not think we can be sure of the mass of particles that may evolve

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heating and therefore more water vapor is admitted to the stratosphere.

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4. Martell, E.A.: "Hydrogen Compounds in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere",

Paper presented in the session on Atmospheric Evolution, International Symposium on llydrogeochemistry and Biogeochemistry

Tokyo, Japan, September 6-12, 1970 5. Machta, L., private communication, 1970

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9. Hampson, J.: Les Problemes Meteorologiques de la Stratosphere et de la

Mesosphere. p. 393, 1966. Presses Universitaires de France, Paris.

10. Leovy, C.:

J. Geophys. Res. 74, 417, 1969

11. Park, J. and London, J.: "The photochemical relation between water

vapor and ozone in the stratosphere", paper presented at AGU Fall
meeting, December 1970.

12. Harrison, H.: Science, 170, 736, 1970

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13. Hesstvedt, E.: "On the photochemistry of ozone in the ozone layer".

Technical Rept., University of Oslo, Norway, February 1968.

14. Blum, H.F.: Carcinogenesis by Ultraviolet Lighti. Princeton Univer

sity Press, 1959.

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15. Leach, W.M.: Biological Aspects of Ultraviolet Radiation, A Review of
Hazards. September 1970, U.S. Department of Health, Education and

Welfare.
16. Man's Impact on the Global Environment. (SCEP), MIT Press, Cambridge,

Mass., 1970.

17. Nicolet, M.: "Ozone and Hydrogen Reactions", Scientific Report No. 350,

March 10, 1970, Ionospheric Rescarch, Ionosphere Research Lab.
Pennsylvania State University,

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