anxious, by anticipating the President, to gain the credit -among pacifists of all shades and countries-of being first in the field, and to be in a position to utilise the support of the United States. It was of course possible that, when the German Note appeared, the President would have paused, out of fear that his action, immediately following that of Germany, might seem to argue collusion, and might therefore be regarded as unneutral. This fear is referred to in the Note; but on the other side was the consideration that, the subject of both Notes being the same, they might be considered together. What may be assumed to have weighed equally with the President was the further consideration that, had he delayed till the Allies had delivered their reply to the German Note, he might have been met by a fait accompli. If the Germans-as we may be sure-knew of his intention, they may well have reckoned on this motive as likely to hasten the action on which he had determined; and, if so, they reckoned rightly.

Whatever Dr Wilson may say as to the independent origin of his Note-and we need hardly say we give full credence to his statement-the coincidence in time is a matter of fact; and there can be no question that, in some respects, the support which his honourable suggestion gives to the dishonest German offer has increased the difficulties of the Allies. We do not believe that such is his intention, but such is the result. To the German Note, couched in menacing terms and based on two false assumptions, we could return but one reply; for conditions of peace based on those assumptions would evidently be intolerable. We were thus placed in the dilemma of having either to tell our enemies indirectly-the futile suggestion of confidential communications was of course dismissed-what we have refused to tell them directly, or to decline the request, couched in friendly terms, of a neutral state, connected with us by peculiar ties. The Allied Governments have adopted the former alternative, and have published a statement which has the great merit of declaring their objects in fuller detail than might have been expected, even in the United States. We have laid our cards on the table; can the German Government and its allies afford to do the like? In so doing, we have shown the high value that we set upon the opinion

of the American people and its President, and our trust in the soundness of their judgment, and their perception of the community of our vital interests. But, whatever happens, our duty is clear. We must persevere to the end, and secure the peace which justice and the future of civilisation alike demand.

THE

QUARTERLY REVIEW.

No. 451.-APRIL, 1917.

Art. 1.-THE INDUSTRIAL MOVEMENT IN INDIA.

1. Reports of the Indian Famine Commissions. India, 1880, 1901.

2. Report on the Supply of Labour in the United Provinces and in Bengal. By S. H. Fremantle. Lucknow, 1906. 3. Report of the First Indian Industrial Conference. Allahabad, 1906.

4. Notes on the Industries of the United Provinces. By A. C. Chatterjee. Allahabad, 1908.

5. Papers connected with the Industrial Conference at Naini Tal. Allahabad, 1908.

6. List of Factories and other Large Industries in India. Calcutta, 1916.

7. The Economic Life of a Bengal District. By J. C. Jack, Clarendon Press, 1916.

8. The Foundations of Indian Economics. By R. Mukerjee. Longmans, 1916.

9. Statistical Abstract relating to British India. Spottiswoode, 1916.

And other works.

THE opening years of this century witnessed, among various striking changes in India, the sudden appearance of a popular demand for the development of industries, and for vigorous action by the State to produce this result. This demand has a complex origin, and is the expression of a variety of political, social and economic needs. Politically, the growing national self-consciousof a numerically small but extremely active minority demands that India shall take her place abreast Vol. 227.-No. 451.

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of the foremost nations of the world, and feels the deficiency of any form of national activity as a stigma and a degradation. Socially, the educated middle classes are beginning to seek for new careers, and are no longer content to limit their aspirations to State-employment and the professions of law, medicine and education, which satisfied them for so long. Underlying and reinforcing these tendencies is the economic need for an increase of material wealth, desired largely for itself, but also as a condition precedent to the development of other and higher activities of the national life. The movement has not so far produced any very remarkable material results, but it has sensibly affected the mental attitude alike of the official world and of the classes who claim an increased share in the government of the country. Whatever its original inspiration, it is now based on a large volume of ascertained fact; and it is likely in the near future to lead to developments involving substantial changes in the commercial relations of India with the rest of the world. A brief account of its origin and progress may therefore be of interest at the present time, when industrial reorganisation is an absorbing topic in the West, and when the stress of hard facts has restored the old ideal of Imperial self-sufficiency to something of the position which it occupied before the elaboration of the economic doctrines of the 19th century.

The foundation of the movement is the recognition of the poverty of the peoples of India. Some writers seek to establish this fact by elaborate calculations of income per capita, but such statistical artillery is really unnecessary. It is matter of common knowledge that the standard of life in India is undesirably low; that, while the masses of the people are provided with the necessities of a bare existence, they are in far too many cases badly housed and badly clothed, badly doctored and badly taught, often overworked and often underfed; and that the present income of the country, even if it were equitably distributed, would not suffice to provide the population with even the most indispensable elements of a reasonable life. This fundamental fact of poverty is unquestionably correlated with the undue preponderance of agriculture as a means of livelihood. The natural resources of the country are such that some

degree of this preponderance must be expected to persist, but it is generally agreed that at the present day the degree is altogether excessive; and the need for diversification of employment, insisted on so strongly by the Famine Commission of 1880, only becomes more obvious with each successive advance in our knowledge of the economic conditions of the country.

A rough measure of this preponderance may be drawn from the returns of the last census; the urban population of India is less than 30 millions out of a total of 315 millions, while the proportion of persons employed in industries and in agriculture is as 2 to 13, which may be contrasted with the ratio of 3 to 4 in Ireland and nearly 8 to 1 in England. Speaking generally, the mass of the population, outside a small number of centres, depends for its livelihood entirely on the soil; and the yield of the soil is governed by the vagaries of the weather during a few short weeks in each year. Deflection or premature cessation of the monsoon-currents may result in the sudden loss of a large proportion of the gross income of the area affected, and may plunge the rural population into acute distress, requiring for its relief the expenditure of millions of pounds and the entire energy of the administration. Nobody can rest satisfied with this state of affairs; and each successive period of drought contributes fresh experience to support the argument that diversification of employment is the outstanding economic need.

An examination of the causes which have led to the excessive preponderance of agriculture would take us too far. For our present purpose it is sufficient to say that the advent of the steam-engine and the other changes conveniently grouped under the name of the industrial revolution found India unprepared. Cheap fuel was the first need for a country desirous of maintaining and increasing its production in the new conditions of industry; but in India the bulk of the artisan population was settled near the coast or along the navigable rivers, while the coal-fields lay some distance away, and the art of mining was in its infancy. The forests indeed were in existence, but the history of the Indian iron-industry serves to remind us of the difficulties resulting from reliance on such diffused sources of fuel; and the first