domination from the Germanic States to the Persian Gulf. This was to be advanced by the Bagdad railway enterprise."

"But what has that to do with the present war?" I ventured.

"It is one of the origins of the present war," Sir Gilbert explained. "Go back a little. It is not so very long ago that the Balkan States were in a state of anarchy and constant disorder, misrule and bloodshed. They were all engaged in cutting one another's throats, under the suzerainty, tyranny and misrule of Turkey. Servia first raised the flag of independence, and then came Roumania, and the others. Most of these were Slav in blood and sympathy. It became necessary for Germany to select one of these states to hold the others in check. Bulgaria was chosen, and Germany almost succeeded in her purposes when the Balkan League was shattered. But Bulgaria was beaten in war, and Germany's plans were frustrated for the moment. Then came the Servian incident. If Austria, as Germany's ally, could absorb or dominate Servia, the way to Turkey, and ultimately into the Persian Gulf, was open, and the coveted territory was hers. Russia could not permit the destruction of Servian independence. War between Germany and Russia then became inevitable, unless one of those Powers gave way. Neither would give way, and so war came. Because of her alliance with Russia, France necessarily became a party. And because we could not afford to see France crushed, but far more than all else, because of the violation of Belgian neutrality, we went to war."

"But, from the strict view of British interests, even

if France were crushed, how would Great Britain be injured?"

"As I have already indicated," Sir Gilbert answered, "by the substitution of a great, aggressive, powerful, military nation across the Channel from us, in place of a peaceful, non-aggressive and non-military nation. If Germany had been allowed to crush France, she would have annexed territory in the north of France along the Channel, and we could not permit that."

"Do you mean that Germany actually would have taken that part of northeastern France, on whose shores the ports of Calais, Dunkirk and Le Havre are located?"

"That much, of course, to say nothing of Belgium," said Sir Gilbert. "France as a first class Power would have ceased to exist."

"Then," I observed, "England really went to war to uphold the principle of the equilibrium of Europe, first formulated by Pitt the younger?"

"Yes; and in this case that principle was endangered in an extreme and exaggerated form,” Sir Gilbert explained. "For if Germany had succeeded, the balance of power in Europe would have been made forever impossible."

"Putting aside for the moment the violation of Belgian neutrality, was the integrity of Belgium considered vital to England?" I asked.

"Certainly," said Sir Gilbert. "That part of our policy is historic. For centuries, we have been the defenders and upholders of the autonomy of Belgium and the Netherlands. The maintenance of these small states directly opposite our shores was necessary to

our safety and general interests. But all Europe agreed that their independence was essential to the continental equilibrium. We could no more afford, now, to permit Belgium to become a part of Germany than to permit France to be crushed by that Power."

"Are the people of England of this mind, Sir Gilbert?"

"The people of Great Britain are absolutely united in support of the war," answered the author-statesman. "The handful against it would be against any war anywhere."

"What will the outcome be?" I asked.

"Does any thoughtful neutral doubt our success?" he exclaimed.

"Assuming that you are victorious, what will you do with your victory? What terms of peace will you impose on Germany?”

"That," answered Sir Gilbert, "is for the future. It is a problem for constructive statesmanship. But I may say that at least one thing is absolutely certain: we shall destroy Prussian militarism. We hope that never again shall the German military system be a menace to the peace of Europe and the world!"

"And just how will the German military system be destroyed?"

"That is not the problem of the moment. We must first have victory in the field," declared Sir Gilbert.

"I have heard it suggested many times by the man in the street and others that the dismemberment of the German Empire is the one sure method of accomplishing the result you suggest."

"The man in the street and the others you refer to

do not know what they are talking about," Sir Gilbert exclaimed. "That is idle chatter," he continued. “England will not dismember Germany, if she is victorious. When the time comes, the leaders will find a way to accomplish the desired result, which is the annihilation of aggressive German militarism. This is the supreme object which the whole British people have at heart; they will trust their leaders to find the way to do it when we have secured victory in the field."

XVI

H

PROBABILITIES

OW will the war end? Which side will win?

These are the questions which most Americans are asking. Amid the crash of the most gigantic conflict of all history we quite naturally take little time to sound the deep causes of this tremendous struggle of peoples; and it is not unreasonable that in the hurry of our daily lives we should be content with hasty judgment formed from first reports and newspaper headlines. So the common query is "Which side will come out on top?" And this is answered according to the sympathies of the questioner.

But what economic change is the war bringing about? What social and political alterations are happening? How will the warring countries pay their war debts? Are not these questions also important? If so, their possible answer is the object of this chapter.

The impartial student of conditions who has been in three of the warring countries and in two adjoining neutral nations will venture no prediction as to which side will be successful, nor as to how long the war will last. It might possibly collapse as suddenly as it began and two or three months might witness the peace congress in session; or it may run on for two or three or even four years-some well