* This table lists aggregates of 57 subgroups that were analyzed individually. In some of these subthe sun of pre-strike anticipations and post-strike recovery exceeded the loss during the strike groups, months. Since it is unreasonable to assign a positive net loss to a strike, the net loss was assumed to be zero in these cases. As a consequence, when these subgroups are aggregated, the sum of anticipations, loss during the strike, and post-strike recovery may, in some cases, add to a total that is algebraically greater than the net loss shown in the table.

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account the possibility of work stoppages in those countries which would affect production or shipment.

There was no way in which the Task Force could determine whether potential new entrants to the export market were deterred by port closings; the fact that all our information was negative is not conclusive, since we were unable to select a representative sample.

B. Changes in Trade for Major Commodity Groups

ods

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The impact of the strikes on exports is approximately the same in all three perithe large drops took place in agricultural products (the decline in Crude Material exports was in cotton and soybeans) chemicals and machinery. The impact of the strike on imports, by type of product, is not as clear. There appears to be some shifting over time from large losses in imports of raw materials, including agriculture, during the months the ports are closed to losses concentrated in finished goods. This probably reflects the changing pattern of U. S. foreign trade imports of finished goods have increased from $5.6 billion in 1956-1960 to $19. 1 billion in 1968. A detailed analysis of the trade changes in the 1968-1969 strike period is presented below.

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Agricultural Products U. S. exports of agricultural products are concentrated in the first three groups of Table 2 Food and Live Animals, Beverages and Tobacco (almost completely tobacco), and Crude Materials except Fuel (soybeans and raw cotton). During the strike months there were very sharp drops in exports of grains, soybeans and tobacco. The wheat export (the most important of the grains) situation was compounded at the time by the fact that many former importing countries have greatly increased their production of wheat and consequently sharply reduced their imports. We also know that Japan, one of the principal U. S. markets for soybeans has been attempting to spread purchases among other potential suppliers according to press reports this has been done, not only to reduce Japanese reliance on one source, but also as a quid pro quo for increased sales of Japanese manufactured goods in the supplying countries.

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There was a significant amount of anticipation of the strike in grain shipments, largely because of efforts by AID and the Department of Agriculture. Detailed commodity analysis implies that the despite these efforts loss of grain sales has not been made up. This combines the effects of the strike, the decreased world demand for wheat, and some decline in the U. S. AID programs. It may also reflect the fact that the ports from which most grains are shipped -- West Gulf Coast

until mid-April.

were not reopened

On the import side, there were sharp reductions in imports of coffee, tea, spices, sugar, and scotch whiskey. Imports of fruits and vegetables, most of which move