AFTERMATH OF WAR, PART II:

THE PLIGHT OF THE IRAQI KURDS A YEAR LATER

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

FINDINGS

1. Immediate crisis passed but 900,000 remain at risk.-The dramatic response of the international community to the flight of 1.8 million Kurds last spring saved tens of thousands of lives and enabled the Kurds to overcome extraordinary odds to begin rebuilding their lives. However, at least 900,000 Kurdish men, women, and children remain at risk of violence and serious deprivation, not just over the coming winter but until Saddam Hussein departs from power and political stability is established in Iraq.

2. New refugees numbering 300,000 posing unexpected strains.Recent harassment by Saddam Hussein in areas outside the Allied security zone has caused 300,000 Kurds to flee their homes since October 1991. This new refugee population is placing unexpected strains on the international relief efforts this winter, particularly regarding efforts to provide adequate shelter.

3. Allied security zone insufficient.-The Allied "security zone" provides adequate security to roughly 1 million Kurds living under Allied protection. However, the security zone is limited to a small portion of Iraq north of the 36th parallel and thus provides no security to the estimated 2 million Iraqi Kurds living outside the zone who are under constant threat of attack and intimidation by Iraqi forces and secret police. Without an extension of the Allied security zone to include all Kurdish controlled areas, the flow of Kurdish refugees will continue.

4. Political solution to refugee problem required.—The refugee situation cannot be solved until the long-term security of Kurdish areas is guaranteed and the political status of the Iraqi Kurdish population is resolved. Such a goal will only come about with strong and consistent international involvement, pressure, and oversight. Key Kurdish leaders are negotiating such arrangements with the Baghdad Government, but a meaningful agreement and its full implementation can only be achieved under continuing international pressure.

5. Lack of knowledge of and contacts with Shiite population.— Any long-term solution to the instability in Iraq must include the Shiite population who make up 55 percent of the Iraqi population. Current U.S. and international efforts to make contact with this population and gather information are inadequate.

6. Evolving U.N. mandate.-The Memorandum of Understanding under which the United Nations is currently operating has been extended until June 1992. In April, the United Nations plans to

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shift its role from relief to rehabilitation and development. International support for such an effort will be essential for its success.

7. Saddam's embargo.-Saddam Hussein has placed an internal economic blockade against the Kurdish controlled areas of northern Iraq. The blockade is placing severe strains on the Kurdish population and enabling Saddam Hussein to use food, medicine, and essential goods as weapons to remain in power.

8. The role of Turkey.-The role of Turkey has been indispensable to the success of international efforts to date, but problems remain. Indiscriminate attacks against Kurdish terrorists in northern Iraq by Turkish forces threaten the civilian population. Political pressure in Turkey to bring an early end to the Allied presence in Turkey and northern Iraq threatens the long-term well-being of the Kurdish population in northern Iraq.

9. U.S. policy toward Iraq.-U.S. policy toward Iraq remains focused only on the removal of Saddam Hussein and has yet to develop a coherent strategy to promote long-term stability and democracy in Iraq.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Facilitate urgent housing arrangements.-The international community-and particularly the Kurdish parties-must do everything possible within the next few weeks to assure that winter shelter is provided to new refugees.

2. Expand Allied security zone under long-term mandate.—In order to prevent the creation of additional refugees and to facilitate continuing relief and rehabilitation efforts in the neediest areas, the current Allied security zone in northern Iraq should be expanded to include all areas currently under Kurdish control. This step can—and should-be taken with minimal additional effort and expense by the United States and the Allies. A long-term commitment must be made by the Allies to remain in the region until political stability is established throughout Iraq.

3. International guarantees for possible Kurdish autonomy agreement. The United Nations, through the Security Council, should be prepared to evaluate and guarantee compliance with any appropriate autonomy agreement negotiated between the Iraqi Government and Kurdish representatives. While Saddam Hussein has objected to any international involvement in these negotiations, U.N. Security Council Resolution 688 can be used to provide the international community with such a role.

4. Long-term policy should promote democracy for Iraq.-Administration policy toward Iraq cannot simply be to encourage the elimination of Saddam Hussein. The United States must begin working actively with Iraqi opposition groups, including Shiite leaders, to promote the establishment of democratic government in Iraq. Such efforts will also help stem the growing influence of Islamic fundamentalists.

5. United Nations mandate.-The United Nations must be prepared to remain in Iraq until stability is established throughout the country and should begin projects to rebuild Kurdish areas destroyed by Saddam Hussein. As the United Nations shifts into areas of rehabilitation and reconstruction, the United States and

the international community should not only support U.N. efforts, but also provide direct humanitarian assistance to the Kurds. Such a step will provide needed reassurance to the Kurdish population and help alleviate the ongoing refugee problem.

6. Sanctions. The international community must increase its efforts to enforce the sanctions against the regime of Saddam Hussein and to secure Iraqi compliance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 712. The resolution calls for the sale of $1.6 billion in Iraqi oil; the proceeds will be used to cover U.N. expenses, pay compensation, and purchase urgently needed food and medical supplies. While recent U.N. negotiations with Iraq are showing the first signs of progress on this issue, the world community must continue to press vigorously for this urgently needed humanitarian resource. Raising the $1.6 billion cap should be considered.

7. Turkey. The role of Turkey in assisting and facilitating the international relief efforts over the last year is commendable. International efforts must be made to end the ongoing terrorist campaign of the PKK (the Kurdish Workers' Party) forces. International efforts must also be made to stop indiscriminate attacks by Turkish forces against Kurdish civilians in northern Iraq. Negotiations must begin to enable a long-term Allied presence to remain in the region until stability is established throughout Iraq.

I. INTRODUCTION

Over a 5-day period, from December 10 through December 14, the staff mission visited much of northern Iraq, concentrating on the eastern portion of Iraq currently under control of the Kurdish military forces. We interviewed refugees in eastern camps who had newly fled towns along the military frontier, and who are now desperately seeking adequate shelter from the harsh Kurdish winter. We witnessed Saddam's past devastation in Qala-Diza in far northeastern Iraq, where no building was left standing, and the remnants of Halabjah destroyed in chemical attacks by Iraqi forces in 1988. We toured the tense frontier towns of Kalar and Kifri, where half of the former population is now in refugee camps farther north; and the remaining wary residents are determined to winter in their own homes-but are packed and ready to leave the moment the anticipated Iraqi onslaught begins.

We also visited the newly liberated cities of Suleimaniya, Dahuk, and Zakho, where many Kurds have returned to rebuild their lives. In addition, we traveled to Shaqlawa for meetings with the Kurdish leadership and to central northern Iraq for meetings with Kurdish tribal leaders. The delegation is indebted to the Kurdish leadership and people for their generous hospitality and to the U.S. and Allied forces for their valuable assistance with our mission. This trip would not have been possible without the tireless efforts of these dedicated individuals.

The Kurdish refugee crisis of last spring that shocked the conscience of the world has been largely overcome through the dramatic response of the international community and Operation Provide Comfort. However, the refugee problem continues, and unless the international community takes steps over the next few months

to ensure the security of the Kurds, the extraordinary gains of the last year may be lost.

Although the Kurds of northern Iraq are making a remarkable recovery from the massive devastation and loss of life last spring, Saddam Hussein and his forces have produced yet another wave of refugees.

Since October, Kurdish villages along the military frontier between Kurdish areas and those under Iraqi central control have suffered continued shelling and sporadic attacks from deadly helicopter gunships and artillery fire. This new campaign of low-grade terror has caused at least 300,000 Kurds to flee to safer ground just as the harsh winter approaches. Their flight is triggered in part by Iraqi military violence, but also by memories-still painfully fresh in Kurdish minds-that such actions by Iraqi troops in the past have been a prelude to larger and bloodier campaigns which have claimed the lives of so many of their family members.

This grave situation underscores the need for a continuing and modestly expanded international presence in northern Iraq-with U.S. participation-for the assistance and protection of Kurds. If the Kurdish people are to have a meaningful and stable future, Allied forces, through appropriate U.N. resolutions, must be willing to stand as guarantors of appropriate autonomy agreements which Kurdish leaders may be able to negotiate with the Iraqi Government. A commitment should be made by the international community to remain in northern Iraq until Saddam Hussein has left power and stability in Iraq is achieved.

II. THE REFUGEE SITUATION AND CONTINUING HUMANITARIAN

NEEDS

A. STATUS OF KURDS FOLLOWING CRISIS LAST SPRING

By October 1991, the Kurds, with the help of the international community, had finally eased the crisis of last spring. Virtually all of the 1.8 million Kurdish refugees who fled in the tragic exodus last March have returned from the refugee camps of Turkey and Iran. They are engaged in the formidable task of rebuilding their lives in villages and cities that had been devastated by the Kurdish uprising and subsequent Iraqi reprisals earlier in the year, and that had suffered successive waves of violent repression by the Ba'athist Government over many years.

Of the 1.8 million who fled last spring, 500,000 remain displaced in northern Iraq, unable to return home. An estimated 20,000 to 40,000 remain in Iran, 11,000 in Turkey, and another 4,000 in Syria. A new refugee population of 300,000 has been created since last October and another 100,000 to 200,000 stand ready to flee from Iraqi forces posted near their towns. In addition, many Kurds who fled from Iraq in 1988 have not returned home, including 20,000 in Iran and 20,000 in Turkey.

The majority of this population are from cities still under Iraqi control, such as Kirkuk and Mosul, and are unlikely to return home until a long-term political agreement guaranteeing their safety is achieved in a post-Saddam Iraq.

A massive program of food assistance and housing construction had saved countless lives and enabled the majority of the Kurds to