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Number of unemployed persons, latent applicants for employment and part-time employees desiring more employment in 1968 and

Source: Labour force surveys (Central Dureau of Statistics)

The character of unemployment is altered due to the force and uneven progress of structural change. There has long been a lack of congruence between Inbour supply and demand, and this has become progressively more apparent. Even during periods of recession there has been a high demand for personnel, above all for experienced and skilled volkers. There are many conceivable reasons why this demand has in many cases not been met as promptly as could be desired. The requirements of vocational training and experience are a short-term obstacle. A special problem is posed by the refiora imbol nce of supply and demand. In many places with a che siced crononic structure, films often require personnel with different qualifications and occupational specialities from those which job applicants can offer.

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Parallel with this steady rise in the demands on work input, it has become evident that a large proportion of unemployed persons can accept employment only on certain definite conditions regarding the nature of the work, the disposition of working hours, the geographical location of the work place and so on. To this must be added the persistence of traditional attitudes concerning the vocational choices of men and women. The resultant participation of the labour market limits the choice of occupations open to the individual and impedes the adjustment of the total labour market.

These changes of supply and demand in the labour market have transformed the character of unemployment. Conspicuous regional differences of unemployment have appeared in recent years. Unemployment among persons aged 55-64 is approximately twice as high in the forest counties as in other parts of Sweden.

One striking feature of unemployment. is the longer periods involved. Between 1965 and 1970 the proportion of unemployed who were out of work for over three months rose from 13 to 24 per cent.

persons

The trend towards longer periods of unemployment persisted during the early 1970s. In 1972 no less than 37 per cent of all unemployed persons had at one time or another been out of work for more than 3 months. This increase in the duration of unemployment was particularly noticeable among men.

This change in the duration of unemployment does a great deal to explain the rising unemployment figures. All in all, unemployment would not seem to have affected more people than previously, but since it now takes longer to find new jobs for those who are out of work, a greater number of unemployed persons will be noted on any given occasion.

Summing up, employment has steadily risen and the proportion of persons in gainful employment has also increased. At the same time overt unemployment has increased, due above all to longer periods of unemployment. However, the number of latent applicants

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for employment has declined markedly. The trend towards increased employment and a reduction of concealed unemployment which has been outlined here puts Sweden in a prominent international position. Sweden can look back on a steady and relatively stable rise in the total number of persons employed. The proportion of the Swedish population in employment has also risen, whereas in the majority of western European countries it has either remained stationary or declined. Above all, Sweden has a far higher proportion of women in employment.

As regards future employment prospects, the 1970 Long-Term Survey has presented assessments of development tendencies in the Swedish economy and labour market up to 1975. These assessments were adjusted and projected in the revised version of the Long-Term Survey presented in 1973. The following table shows the development of employment as forecast by the Survey.

On the basis of the assumptions in the Long-Term Survey regarding population development, immigration, unemployment etc., the rise in employment during the 1970s, given a constant policy, was estimated at approximately 180,000 persons. Since population developments during the 1970s are expected to result in a lower growth of the employable age groups, this assessment presupposes that participation rates will rise more rapidly than during the 1960s.

The debate on future employment

Labour market developments have prompted a comprehensive debate on employment questions. Part of the basis for these discussions has been provided by the monthly labour force surveys together 1) with material from the Low Incomes Commission and the LongTerm Survey.

The assessment made by the Long-Term Survey of the possible course of economic development in Sweden during the 1970s included among other things the computation of a total increase in the number of persons in the labour force. It was assumed that this increase would proceed far more slowly than during the 1960s. The Long-Term Survey maintained that seriously limited labour resources constituted a major problem of economic policy. Far-reaching measures would be required to step up the level of employment among women.

The assessment of incomes and employment made by the Long-Term Survey led to the conclusion that inequalities of income could to a great extent be attributed to differences in the availability of work and that the incomes of large groups of people could be improved if their level of employment could be raised.

In the debate which followed the publication of this material, a number of LO economists maintained, in a publication entitled

1) The Low Incomes Commission, which finished its work in 1971, has 1.a. presented research reports concerning the living conditions of the Swedish people.

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"Social Goals of National Planning", that the problems of industrial recruitment envisaged by the Long-Term Survey were not to be taken as evidence of an excessively high general demand for labour in the country as a whole. In their opinion, measures to increase the participation of women in working life and measures to establish a better balance between the activities of different regions could help to increase the supply of labour.

Matters concerning employment in the future have been raised on several occasions in the course of general political and trade union debate. Demands have also been voiced in the Riksdag for greater efforts to enable increasing numbers of people to obtain employment. In the 1973 Riksdag, employment matters were touched on in motions tabled by several parties and private members. In its report to the Riksdag, the Standing Committee on Finance referred to the great need for continued intensive planning in connection with employment policy and recommended that the Government be empowered to determine the forms in which this planning should proceed. The recommendation was adopted by the Riksdag.

In August 1973, the Congress of the Swedish Metal Workers' Union requested the Government to frame and adopt an employment plan. A special programme of industrial policy stated that a collective employment plan of this kind should cover the whole of the 1970s and that it should include an assessment of the contribution to the general level of employment which could be expected from industry, the rest of the economy and the public sector in the course of the next few years. Since then the demand for an employment plan has been seconded in the general debate by other union organizations as well as political parties.

In response to the demands thus voiced for a more active planning of employment, talks were held during the autumn of 1973 between the Government and the main union confederations (LO, TCO and