Review of 1973/74

Labour demand was still relatively weak in the first half of 1973 and employment remained on much the same level as in the two previous years. Around midyear, however, the demand for labour started to rise, particularly in industry. At first the increase was concentrated to the branches geared to exports but as activity on the home market expanded, there was evidence of an increased personnel requirement in nearly all parts of industry and, during the past six months, in the services sector, too.

The growth of the labour force (persons in employment and the unemployed) was more rapid in fiscal 1973/74 than in the preceding years. The average number of persons aged 16-74 in the labour force was 4,008,000 or 44,000 more than a year earlier. As there was little change in the total population in this age group, the activity rate (the percentage of the population of employable age belonging to the labour force) rose approximately one point to 67.9 per cent. The strong flow of women onto the labour market continued and accounted for almost the whole of this increase, while the number of men in the labour force was much the same as in 1972/73.

Foreign migration was influenced during fiscal 1973/74 by the improved business activity in Sweden. During 1972 and 1973, emigration had exceeded immigration by 12,000 and 11,000 persons respectively. From the 3rd quarter of 1973 onwards, however, emigration was lower than a year earlier and during the 2nd quarter of 1974 immigration increased somewhat as well. As a result, the emigration surplus gradually decreased and during the last quarter of the fiscal year the numbers of immigrants and emigrants were much the same. Employment rose relatively strongly during 1973/74— compared with a year earlier, there were about 40,000

Women, as already mentioned, accounted for almost the entire increment to the labour force and they were also responsible for the greater part of this increase in employment. The number of women employed during the first half of 1974 was thus about 55,000 more than a year earlier, compared with an increase of approximately 15,000 for men. The latter rise came from men aged 16-54, while the number of older men employed fell, partly as a consequence of pension reforms.

In each month of 1973/74 more new vacancies were registered than in the same month a year earlier. There was also a gradual increase in the 12-month difference except in December and January, when it slackened somewhat during the somewhat uncertain outlook for energy supplies. This increase was accompanied by a stronger rise in the number of vacancies outstanding, which had started to grow during the 1st quarter of 1973. The rise during 1973 chiefly concerned manual occupations in industry but during the first half of 1974 the number of vacancies also rose substantially in most other branches and in many parts of the country there were signs of growing difficulties in recruiting labour, particularly for industry.

As usual when the economy is expanding, the increase in vacancies did not occur simultaneously all over the country. Outside the metropolitan counties, the swing came first in Southern and Central Sweden. It then became more general from the second half of 1973 onwards, though there was still some lag in certain counties. During the spring of 1974, however, there seems to have been a substantial rise in labour demand nearly everywhere.

The development of labour demand is also reflected by the Business Tendency Surveys, which show the numbers of firms in industry, forestry, distributive trades and building with shortages of certain categories of labour. A summary of the shortage rates is presented on page 6.

The growing difficulty of recruiting labour in industry is indicated by the increased shortage of skilled workers during the past year. By June 1974, 60 per cent of industrial firms reported shortages of skilled workers. The shortages of other workers and of technicians have also grown. In forestry, good business activity caused a sharp rise in the shortage of fellers. Retailers reported some shortage of shop asssistants in June 1974.

In building the shortages reported for all categories of labour rose substantially in June 1974, having been very low except for woodworkers earlier in the fiscal year. The rising shortage of woodworkers in recent years chiefly has to do with the growing proportion of 1 and 2-family houses in residential construction.

Advance warning of lay-offs or closures affected 14,800 persons in fiscal 1973/74, which is 5,000 fewer than in 1972/73. Industry was mainly responsible for the reduction in the second half of 1973 and entirely so in the first half of 1974. Outside industry, 60 per cent more persons were affected by advance warnings in the first