shipping revenues, would be lowest for high-speed nuclear ships. Furthermore, the reduction of residual oil imports necessary to fuel oil-fired ships would result in additional improvement in the U.S. balance of payments, beyond benefits realized from increased revenues of high speed ships. OPPORTUNITY AND TIMING During the course of the seminar it was pointed out by several participants that the present opportunity for construction of nuclear merchant ships is not open-ended in terms of time. U.S. operators currently carry the predominant share of speed-sensitive cargo and therefore are more vulnerable to high-speed competition than the foreign fleets. Also, it is expected that some cargo will be lost to the planned increase in conventional speed (20 knot) competition from enlarged Japanese and Russian fleets, which are due to expand 100% and 50%, respectively, over the next five years under major government programs. Therefore, decisions must be made shortly by the U.S. on moving forward with a new generation of high speed merchant ships. If arrangements cannot be worked out on availability of suitable reactor systems within the reasonably near future, foreign competition in the higher speed ranges will dictate construction of a new class of oil-fired ships, whose lifetimes are expected to be from 25 to 30 years. Once these ships are built, it was emphasized, the opportunity for nuclear merchant ship construction will be largely eliminated for some years to come. The planned merchant ship replacement program is currently projected for completion by 1975. At present the Savannah is the only nuclear merchant ship in operation, but several other countries are moving ahead with programs. Germany is proceeding with construction of a nuclear powered ore carrier, the Otto Hahn, for commission in 1967. A compact PWR unit, being provided by a U.S. manufacturer, is being installed directly in the ship, without a land-based prototype. Other reactor designs are being developed by the Germans for availability in 1975 on a fully economic basis. Japan is considering construction of a nuclear powered oceanographic ship. It is understood that this ship, together with the Otto Hahn, is designed primarily for training of crews and will not be on regular operating schedules. They will also provide an opportunity for R&D work on ship design and testing. Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden also have plans or programs in various stages of completion. The USSR is gaining operational experience through the nuclear icebreaker, Lenin. During the seminar, several government and industry participants pointed to the desirability of utilizing nuclear merchant ships in a defense support capacity and urged that ship construction be initiated promptly. Among the major advantages foreseen for such ships is that their high speed would enable them to operate independently of convoys and to do the work of two or three conventional vessels. It is difficult to place a dollar cost on the value of such services, as several participants noted, and no formal requirement from the Defense Department exists at the present time. A pertinent consideration, as noted by one participant, is the relationship of a program for high speed defense support ships to the recently announced program for development of large transport planes for military transport purposes. PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS AND PLANS While most participants were in agreement on the substantial contribution which nuclear propulsion could make to the U.S. merchant marine, there was conspicuous lack of agreement on how the program should proceed and on what the inter-relationships should be among the various parties concerned. It was evident that further efforts would be required to resolve present differences and to clarify current points of confusion. Central to the discussion was the question of whether the technology of pressurized water reactors, as applied to maritime systems, is sufficiently advanced at the present to warrant moving ahead directly to ship application. Several participants, including the operator of the Savannah, stated that the performance of the Savannah had convinced them of the desirability of proceeding promptly with construction and operation of follow-on vessels for commercial use. They expressed confidence in the ability of U.S. manufacturers to provide a suitable reactor system for such vessels, citing the substantial experience that had been gained in both maritime and civilian power programs since initiation of work on the Savannah 8 years ago. It was noted, in this connection, that fixed prices for propulsion plant construction and guarantees on performance have been offered by at least one manufacturer. It Doubt was expressed by these participants on the need for a landbased prototype aimed at further development of PWR components. was emphasized that progress can best be made through direct application of the technology in ships and that any problems which may arise can best be defined and dealt with during the course of the R&D work prior to manufacture of the nuclear propulsion plant and during the startup and test program on the first ship. In particular, it was noted, the compiling of solid economic data requires actual ship operating experience. Also, there were important crew training benefits from ship operation, as demonstrated by experience with the Savannah, which is expected to continue service as a training center when the first followon vessels become operational. In contrast, other participants expressed the view that more work will be required on component and systems development in a land-based facility so as to prove out long-term economics and reliability. Concern was expressed that direct ship application without such preparatory work might result in failure to produce a viable system and that this would cast a shadow over the entire program for some years to come. These participants felt that the Savannah had not been a particularly useful device for testing and advocated the development of more flexible facilities on land. It was made clear that further study will be required of these and other complex questions before a sound program for proceeding is decided upon. In the interim, the Atomic Energy Commission has under consideration a proposed program involving construction of a facility at a government site to test out components of maritime reactor systems. This activity would be coupled with parallel development of nuclear ships (see chart). The two efforts would not be firmly tied together but would be mutually supporting in a manner as yet undefined in detail. It was unclear as to whether the two projects would, as a practical matter, proceed in parallel or whether it would be possible to obtain useful information from the proposed test facility for ships which are built on essentially the same time scale. Concern was expressed as to the possible inhibiting effects which construction of the proposed test facility might have on initiation and timing of a ship construction program and on the further investment of private capital by manufacturers and ship operators. As presently visualized within the Commission, the proposed facility would be designed to provide maximum flexibility for testing components. One of its chief aims would be to prove out reliability, safety, and long term economics of such components. The reactor would be a pressurized water type and would resemble as closely as possible a unit for ship 78-559 0-67-27 |