Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy

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Rand Corporation, 25 сент. 2006 г. - Всего страниц: 344
RAND Project AIR FORCE studied the post-9/11 shift in U.S. defense policy emphasis toward preemptive and preventive attack, asking under what conditions preemptive or preventive attack is worth considering as a response to perceived threats. It considered the role such first-strike strategies are likely to play in future U.S. national security policy. Finally, it identified implications these conclusions have for military planners and policymakers as they prepare to deal with national security threats in the next decade.

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Striking First Preemptive and Preventive Attacks
1
The Doctrine of Preemption and the US National Security Strategy
3
Preemption and Prevention
6
Preventive Attack
8
Anticipatory Attack
10
Anticipatory Attack Versus Operational Preemption
14
Studying Preemptive and Preventive Attack
15
The Best Defense? When and Why States Strike First
19
Changing Perceptions of Power and Threats
93
Persistent Obstacles to Striking First
94
Anticipatory Attacks After Operation Iraqi Freedom
96
Anticipatory Attack in Future National Security Strategies
98
Leading Scenarios for US Anticipatory Attack
99
Striking Violent Nonstate Actors to Avert Terrorism
101
Attacking States to Limit the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction
103
Political Consequences of Anticipatory Attack
105

Prevention and Preemption in International Politics
20
Preemptive War and FirstStrike Advantage
22
Preventive War and the Balance of Power
29
The Costs Benefits and Risks of Anticipatory Attack
32
The Advantage of Striking First
33
The Certainty of the Threat
36
Weighing the Pros and Cons of Anticipatory Attack
38
Attacking in SelfDefense Legality and Legitimacy of Striking First
43
International Law
48
Legal Use of Force
50
Force Authorized by the Security Council
51
SelfDefense
52
Proportionality
54
Necessity
55
Alternative Standards for Anticipatory SelfDefense
59
Anticipatory Attack Against Nonstate Actors
66
Entering Other States to Attack Nonstate Actors
67
The Significance of Legality
71
The UN Security Council
74
The International Criminal Court
75
Legitimacy
86
Conclusion
89
Preemptive and Preventive Strategies in Future US National Security Policy Prospects and Implications
91
Rhetoric and Reality
92
Anticipatory Attack and Future US Defense Planning
107
Intelligence Requirements for Striking First
109
Other Military Capabilities for Anticipatory Attack
112
The Importance of Operational Preemption
114
Dangers of Relying on Preemptive and Preventive Attack
115
Preemptive Attack as a Threat to the United States
116
The Nexus of Politics and War
118
US Preventive Attack Cases
121
US Consideration of Preventive Attack Against China
152
The Cuban Missile Crisis 1962
171
The Invasion of Grenada 1983
182
Israeli Preemptive and Preventive Attack Cases
189
The Sinai Campaign 1956
191
The SixDay War 1967
198
The October War 1973
206
The Osirak Raid 1981
211
Counterterrorist Anticipatory Attack Cases
219
The Israeli Assassination Attempt Against Khaled Mishal 1997
220
The Tirana Raids 1998
229
Hellfire Strike in Yemen 2002
241
The Jordanian Crackdown in Maan 2002
256
NSS Statements on Preemptive and Preventive Attack
267
References
271
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