Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security PolicyRand Corporation, 25 сент. 2006 г. - Всего страниц: 344 RAND Project AIR FORCE studied the post-9/11 shift in U.S. defense policy emphasis toward preemptive and preventive attack, asking under what conditions preemptive or preventive attack is worth considering as a response to perceived threats. It considered the role such first-strike strategies are likely to play in future U.S. national security policy. Finally, it identified implications these conclusions have for military planners and policymakers as they prepare to deal with national security threats in the next decade. |
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Стр. ix
... Option .......................... 33 2.2. Anticipatory Attack Against Relatively Certain Threats ....... 40 2.3. Anticipatory Attack Against Severe but Uncertain Threats .... 41 A.1. The Soviet Missile Threat from Cuba ...
... Option .......................... 33 2.2. Anticipatory Attack Against Relatively Certain Threats ....... 40 2.3. Anticipatory Attack Against Severe but Uncertain Threats .... 41 A.1. The Soviet Missile Threat from Cuba ...
Стр. xxv
... options are going to be considered in conditions where the time available for making strategic choices is limited. Such information should ideally be familiar to political leaders long before a crisis develops, since an understanding of ...
... options are going to be considered in conditions where the time available for making strategic choices is limited. Such information should ideally be familiar to political leaders long before a crisis develops, since an understanding of ...
Стр. 2
... options available to states facing apparent threats to their national security, especially the United States—thus it is both more and less than a detailed study of current U.S. national security policy. It focuses on identifying factors ...
... options available to states facing apparent threats to their national security, especially the United States—thus it is both more and less than a detailed study of current U.S. national security policy. It focuses on identifying factors ...
Стр. 5
... options. There is no class of threats against which the National Security Strategy indicates the United States would always strike first, and Washington has implemented the doctrine selectively, most notably in pursuing conspicuously ...
... options. There is no class of threats against which the National Security Strategy indicates the United States would always strike first, and Washington has implemented the doctrine selectively, most notably in pursuing conspicuously ...
Стр. 16
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Содержание
1 | |
3 | |
6 | |
Preventive Attack | 8 |
Anticipatory Attack | 10 |
Anticipatory Attack Versus Operational Preemption | 14 |
Studying Preemptive and Preventive Attack | 15 |
The Best Defense? When and Why States Strike First | 19 |
Changing Perceptions of Power and Threats | 93 |
Persistent Obstacles to Striking First | 94 |
Anticipatory Attacks After Operation Iraqi Freedom | 96 |
Anticipatory Attack in Future National Security Strategies | 98 |
Leading Scenarios for US Anticipatory Attack | 99 |
Striking Violent Nonstate Actors to Avert Terrorism | 101 |
Attacking States to Limit the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction | 103 |
Political Consequences of Anticipatory Attack | 105 |
Prevention and Preemption in International Politics | 20 |
Preemptive War and FirstStrike Advantage | 22 |
Preventive War and the Balance of Power | 29 |
The Costs Benefits and Risks of Anticipatory Attack | 32 |
The Advantage of Striking First | 33 |
The Certainty of the Threat | 36 |
Weighing the Pros and Cons of Anticipatory Attack | 38 |
Attacking in SelfDefense Legality and Legitimacy of Striking First | 43 |
International Law | 48 |
Legal Use of Force | 50 |
Force Authorized by the Security Council | 51 |
SelfDefense | 52 |
Proportionality | 54 |
Necessity | 55 |
Alternative Standards for Anticipatory SelfDefense | 59 |
Anticipatory Attack Against Nonstate Actors | 66 |
Entering Other States to Attack Nonstate Actors | 67 |
The Significance of Legality | 71 |
The UN Security Council | 74 |
The International Criminal Court | 75 |
Legitimacy | 86 |
Conclusion | 89 |
Preemptive and Preventive Strategies in Future US National Security Policy Prospects and Implications | 91 |
Rhetoric and Reality | 92 |
Anticipatory Attack and Future US Defense Planning | 107 |
Intelligence Requirements for Striking First | 109 |
Other Military Capabilities for Anticipatory Attack | 112 |
The Importance of Operational Preemption | 114 |
Dangers of Relying on Preemptive and Preventive Attack | 115 |
Preemptive Attack as a Threat to the United States | 116 |
The Nexus of Politics and War | 118 |
US Preventive Attack Cases | 121 |
US Consideration of Preventive Attack Against China | 152 |
The Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 | 171 |
The Invasion of Grenada 1983 | 182 |
Israeli Preemptive and Preventive Attack Cases | 189 |
The Sinai Campaign 1956 | 191 |
The SixDay War 1967 | 198 |
The October War 1973 | 206 |
The Osirak Raid 1981 | 211 |
Counterterrorist Anticipatory Attack Cases | 219 |
The Israeli Assassination Attempt Against Khaled Mishal 1997 | 220 |
The Tirana Raids 1998 | 229 |
Hellfire Strike in Yemen 2002 | 241 |
The Jordanian Crackdown in Maan 2002 | 256 |
NSS Statements on Preemptive and Preventive Attack | 267 |
References | 271 |
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action adversary affect aggression Air Force al Qaeda Albania allies American Amman anticipatory attack anticipatory self-defense Arab armed benefits bombing capabilities Chiefs of Staff China Chinese conflict considered Cuba Cuban missile crisis decision decisionmakers Defense deterrence different difficult effect efforts Egypt Egyptian enemy attack factors fight fighting first strike first-strike advantage Foreign Relations Grenada Hamas imminent intelligence International Criminal Court International Crisis Group international law invasion Iraq Iraqi Islamic Islamists Israel Israeli Jordan Jordanian Kennedy Khrushchev launch Mishal Moscow National Security Affairs National Security Strategy nonstate actors North Korea nuclear weapons October offensive offer officials operations options Osirak Palestinian policymakers potential preemption Preemptive and Preventive preemptive attack preemptive wars President preventive attack Qaeda raids require Security Council significant Soviet Union specific state’s striking first sufficient targets Terrorism terrorist tion U.S. Department U.S. leaders U.S. national United Nations Washington weapons of mass Yemen York