Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security PolicyRand Corporation, 25 сент. 2006 г. - Всего страниц: 344 RAND Project AIR FORCE studied the post-9/11 shift in U.S. defense policy emphasis toward preemptive and preventive attack, asking under what conditions preemptive or preventive attack is worth considering as a response to perceived threats. It considered the role such first-strike strategies are likely to play in future U.S. national security policy. Finally, it identified implications these conclusions have for military planners and policymakers as they prepare to deal with national security threats in the next decade. |
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Стр. xviii
... require large numbers of American troops for some years to come, reducing the number of U.S. ground forces available for similar operations elsewhere. Mustering either domestic or international political support for another operation ...
... require large numbers of American troops for some years to come, reducing the number of U.S. ground forces available for similar operations elsewhere. Mustering either domestic or international political support for another operation ...
Стр. xxii
... require conspicuous preparations by the adversary, determining whether these represent the prelude to an attack or ... requires being able to strike quickly and decisively. If the threat can materialize with little warning, it becomes ...
... require conspicuous preparations by the adversary, determining whether these represent the prelude to an attack or ... requires being able to strike quickly and decisively. If the threat can materialize with little warning, it becomes ...
Стр. xxiii
... require not only destroying weapons (if they have been built) and production facilities, but replacing the regime that chose to develop them; doing this against any plausible future adversary would be a far more ambitious and costly ...
... require not only destroying weapons (if they have been built) and production facilities, but replacing the regime that chose to develop them; doing this against any plausible future adversary would be a far more ambitious and costly ...
Стр. xxiv
... require substantial increases to SOF force structure, a path down which the United States has begun to move since September 2001. Preventive attacks against insurgent groups resemble other counterinsurgency warfare, so doing a lot of ...
... require substantial increases to SOF force structure, a path down which the United States has begun to move since September 2001. Preventive attacks against insurgent groups resemble other counterinsurgency warfare, so doing a lot of ...
Стр. 6
... require not merely attacking before the enemy does so, but attacking prior to some other enemy action that will make preemption impossible, such as mobilizing or dispersing forces in preparation for an offensive, or receiving weapons ...
... require not merely attacking before the enemy does so, but attacking prior to some other enemy action that will make preemption impossible, such as mobilizing or dispersing forces in preparation for an offensive, or receiving weapons ...
Содержание
1 | |
3 | |
6 | |
Preventive Attack | 8 |
Anticipatory Attack | 10 |
Anticipatory Attack Versus Operational Preemption | 14 |
Studying Preemptive and Preventive Attack | 15 |
The Best Defense? When and Why States Strike First | 19 |
Changing Perceptions of Power and Threats | 93 |
Persistent Obstacles to Striking First | 94 |
Anticipatory Attacks After Operation Iraqi Freedom | 96 |
Anticipatory Attack in Future National Security Strategies | 98 |
Leading Scenarios for US Anticipatory Attack | 99 |
Striking Violent Nonstate Actors to Avert Terrorism | 101 |
Attacking States to Limit the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction | 103 |
Political Consequences of Anticipatory Attack | 105 |
Prevention and Preemption in International Politics | 20 |
Preemptive War and FirstStrike Advantage | 22 |
Preventive War and the Balance of Power | 29 |
The Costs Benefits and Risks of Anticipatory Attack | 32 |
The Advantage of Striking First | 33 |
The Certainty of the Threat | 36 |
Weighing the Pros and Cons of Anticipatory Attack | 38 |
Attacking in SelfDefense Legality and Legitimacy of Striking First | 43 |
International Law | 48 |
Legal Use of Force | 50 |
Force Authorized by the Security Council | 51 |
SelfDefense | 52 |
Proportionality | 54 |
Necessity | 55 |
Alternative Standards for Anticipatory SelfDefense | 59 |
Anticipatory Attack Against Nonstate Actors | 66 |
Entering Other States to Attack Nonstate Actors | 67 |
The Significance of Legality | 71 |
The UN Security Council | 74 |
The International Criminal Court | 75 |
Legitimacy | 86 |
Conclusion | 89 |
Preemptive and Preventive Strategies in Future US National Security Policy Prospects and Implications | 91 |
Rhetoric and Reality | 92 |
Anticipatory Attack and Future US Defense Planning | 107 |
Intelligence Requirements for Striking First | 109 |
Other Military Capabilities for Anticipatory Attack | 112 |
The Importance of Operational Preemption | 114 |
Dangers of Relying on Preemptive and Preventive Attack | 115 |
Preemptive Attack as a Threat to the United States | 116 |
The Nexus of Politics and War | 118 |
US Preventive Attack Cases | 121 |
US Consideration of Preventive Attack Against China | 152 |
The Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 | 171 |
The Invasion of Grenada 1983 | 182 |
Israeli Preemptive and Preventive Attack Cases | 189 |
The Sinai Campaign 1956 | 191 |
The SixDay War 1967 | 198 |
The October War 1973 | 206 |
The Osirak Raid 1981 | 211 |
Counterterrorist Anticipatory Attack Cases | 219 |
The Israeli Assassination Attempt Against Khaled Mishal 1997 | 220 |
The Tirana Raids 1998 | 229 |
Hellfire Strike in Yemen 2002 | 241 |
The Jordanian Crackdown in Maan 2002 | 256 |
NSS Statements on Preemptive and Preventive Attack | 267 |
References | 271 |
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action adversary affect aggression Air Force al Qaeda Albania allies American Amman anticipatory attack anticipatory self-defense Arab armed benefits bombing capabilities Chiefs of Staff China Chinese conflict considered Cuba Cuban missile crisis decision decisionmakers Defense deterrence different difficult effect efforts Egypt Egyptian enemy attack factors fight fighting first strike first-strike advantage Foreign Relations Grenada Hamas imminent intelligence International Criminal Court International Crisis Group international law invasion Iraq Iraqi Islamic Islamists Israel Israeli Jordan Jordanian Kennedy Khrushchev launch Mishal Moscow National Security Affairs National Security Strategy nonstate actors North Korea nuclear weapons October offensive offer officials operations options Osirak Palestinian policymakers potential preemption Preemptive and Preventive preemptive attack preemptive wars President preventive attack Qaeda raids require Security Council significant Soviet Union specific state’s striking first sufficient targets Terrorism terrorist tion U.S. Department U.S. leaders U.S. national United Nations Washington weapons of mass Yemen York